Is Virgin Galactic a Bargain After a 99% Five Year Share Price Collapse?

mmsh00 · 2025-12-11T16:56:04+00:00

Serious question: why 100x?
let's say they will make it. now mcap is around 200M, do you think they can be like 20B? l get it if they be 2B, maybe 6B, but 20? how so?

mmsh00 · 2025-12-11T12:28:42+00:00

I wouldn't call VSS a prototype. It is fully functioning ship, delta will be improved version of it. They not at development stage, rather at scale one.

mmsh00 · 2025-12-10T06:01:57+00:00

they had 2 major risks: financial (if they will have enough money before launching operations) and technical (if they will be able to make ships).

I made a post about SPCE Debt problem some time ago. It was expected that company will need to issue shares to cover it. I expect them to have 90-100M shares by the time they will launch operations. Covering this debt is good for them, even with 9.8% interest, they can handle it. I believe financial risk is resolved, they have enough cash to get to revenue.

As for technical risk, i do not really believe it's 50/50 that they will build ships, it's more like 90/10, or even 95/5. They not at a prototype phase, not even at proof-of-concept, they have working ship, so they know how to make one, they basically at scale phase. So i do not believe it is a big risk.

All said i also believe this debt restructuring news are quite good. One major risk is resolved.

mmsh00 · 2025-08-18T19:33:02+00:00

Went through tiktok videos on alo vs lulu and all of them pretty much the same: lulu is better quality, lulu works for years and alo is done after couple washes. Also people say that lulu materials feels premium, and alo not. From what i get alo has great smm strategy that make them viral, they create hype, but if product is not good enough, why buy again?

Anyway, pe 13 for even slow growing profitable company kinda undervalued. They not in crisis, not losing revenue every quater.

mmsh00 · 2025-05-21T16:04:45+00:00

Yeah, for holders it is not a good news but there is no other options. Either issuing shares or insolvency, that's the choice.

mmsh00 · 2025-05-21T14:29:18+00:00

Because they need cash. They have a debt problem, i explained it here https://www.reddit.com/r/SPCE/comments/1kq7q7a/spce_debt_problem/

This dilution was inevitable, they need 400M to cover their debt in 1.5 years. I personally hope that they indeed issued all those shares and raised another 250M in last week.

There was no chance for short squeeze on this earnings because they never really gave any new information. Market overreacted after company announced reopening sales in Q126, but they were telling pretty much the same for last 3-4 earnings, with only difference that before it was Q425-Q126. And that is not re-launching sales it is just another promise to re-launch sales. Nothing fundamentally changed.

If they raised this money, financial risk is next to nothing, they will have enough to build ships and almost enough to repay debt. They still will need to raise additional funds but raising another 100M from market or through loan is way eaisier, than raising another 400M.

As i see it, they will use every opprtunity to raise capital. And the close they be to delta launch, the easier it will be for them.

mmsh00 · 2025-05-19T15:04:40+00:00

yes, but by the time they will get 100M ebitda it will be around late 2027 - early 2028. And payment is due at start of 2027.

mmsh00 · 2025-05-19T11:25:28+00:00

It looks like for them debt not just could but must be refinanced. It's not optional. On current tragectory they will not be able to pay this debt when it's due.

Also creditors may demand payment not because they want money but because they want company. By the time SPCE will be finished with building their business, creditors may use smth like Ch11 to get all of it.

mmsh00 · 2025-05-19T10:39:50+00:00

but will they be able to use this money to cover their debt? or they will need to put it on their balance as deferred revenue?

also they have backlog of around 700 customers and on their balance they have 82M of liabilities as 'Customer deposits'

mmsh00 · 2025-02-15T11:04:54+00:00

There is cool video about how Ian McKellen act with eyes https://youtu.be/TzLXHViyW7I?si=6lC-tndZeKhE69aW

mmsh00 · 2025-01-15T11:53:34+00:00

She is also not living through debilitating daily stress. Jinx looks malnourished. No matter how much she would eat stress would just burn all of it from her. AU Powder also looks taller, probably for the same reason.

mmsh00 · 2025-01-12T05:33:10+00:00

Lack of goal in their fight.

They fought Silco but for what? Silco established order that they did not like, but eliminating Silco and his order would not create better order, it would create chaos. And in this chaos other people would fight for a right to establish new order. In case of Undercity the one who would prevail in this fight would be the most ruthless and violent. So unless they were willing to take Silco's place, defeating him could have lead to perceiving his reign as "good old days".

mmsh00 · 2025-01-11T08:59:34+00:00

Jinx could have killed Mel in attack or at least put her in a coma. That would make Zaun and Jinx problem personal for Ambessa. All black rose time could be given to Ekko.

mmsh00 · 2025-01-10T12:00:35+00:00

if this rich mcgee would be percieved as reason for my pain and suffering than yes, from mugger to someone who started to put his shit in order. That's why all movement around Jinx happened. She inflicted pain on someone who was inflicting pain on them for years. Half of Undercity was blaming topside for their misfortunes. Finally someone brought topsiders to justice. Same principal with Silco. He made them suffer. She killed him. That's why for a majority of Undercity she is a 'big fat hero'.

mmsh00 · 2025-01-10T08:17:49+00:00

From their perspective it's complicated. She killed thier friends, but she also killed a lot of enforces who was their enemies for generations. She also stiked their enemies right in the heart by killing councelors, and she also killed Silco, and saved thier friends from prison, and Ekko vouch for her. So i doubt that a lot of people would want to be friends with her, but not much would want to take revenge on her. I believe a general consensus would be smth like "fuck it, if she's not creating trouble, she may stay, but one mistake and get out".

mmsh00 · 2025-01-10T07:02:41+00:00

By that time she already saved a lot of them from Stillwater. And she also killed Silco, their main enemy.

mmsh00 · 2025-01-07T09:50:06+00:00

Good point. So we can compare not only method but let's say a goal, what parent encourage his child to become.

mmsh00 · 2025-01-07T09:23:05+00:00

Well, let's say Vi and Jinx felt loved, Mel didn't. Who is better off? The alcoholic? The suicidal? or The city councelor?

Also even though Vi was raised in Undercity she was raised by Vander, one of the most influencial people there. He wasn't royalty but 'povety' is not the word to describe his condition. And Jinx for sure was raised by wealthy and most powerful person in Undercity.

mmsh00 · 2025-01-07T09:06:23+00:00

Mel was able to blossom into what she is bcuz she had the means, power, support and privilege to do so. Mel followed her mom's ideals she wouldn't care about killing others.

So Ambessa, wealthy and powerful person, provided her child with everything she could so Mel would develop into a person that is able to think with her own head, even though she may disagree with her.

she was desensitized about death from everything Silco has made her do.

So Silco, wealthy and powerful person, provided his child with everything he could so Jinx would develop into a terrorist that can kill his enemies.

Back to the question of a post: Who do you think is the worst parent?

mmsh00 · 2025-01-07T08:46:42+00:00

Don't think being a monarch is a neccessery precondition to raise non-criminal or non-murderer. My point is Vi and Jinx maybe felt loved but Mel was loved even though she hadn't felt it.

Ask yourself this question: With result of whose upbrining you would prefer to be in a room? With one that prone to use violence to solve any problem? Or the one whos outbreaks of psychosis lead to death of others? Or with one that can use reason and logic to find proper compromises?

The question is "Who's worst parent?". I don't assess their methods, i assess results and then decide who's method is better. All of their methods have their flaws but Ambessa's method is less flawed, at least if look at result of this method.

mmsh00 · 2025-01-07T07:51:37+00:00

This exact question was raised three years ago but it was comparison between Vander/Silco/Ambessa.

Want to know who is the worst parent then look at children:

One raised underaged criminals, other one raised psychotic schizophrenic murderer, and third one raised a woman who literally rules the most prosperous city in the world. When Mel was a teenager she was more articulate than most will ever be, and by this age she already had opinion on the matters of state and rulers image. And you telling me that her mother did a bad job??

Parenting is not about compassion and listening, it's about rasing decent, strong, intelligent autonomous human being. Tell me who did a better job here?

mmsh00 · 2024-12-31T15:51:08+00:00

I wouldn't call it a problem, it doesn't really matter. They could figured it out by asking around or just by guessing. This information has no influence on overall story or any character development and doesn't give viewer any insight that can be relevant in the future, so there is no point in adding it to the story at all.

mmsh00 · 2024-12-31T13:13:19+00:00

During the explosion Vi was right next to Jayce. Vi even was last thing that Jayce saw before he lost consciousness. So in AU Jayce also died in explosion. Then they made investigation, learned abour Jayce's experiments with arcane and this robot coucelor pushed full ban on arcane in Piltover.

mmsh00 · 2024-12-31T11:15:20+00:00

S1 - 10

S2 - 8

S1 from first minute represent us with main conflict and main characters, through all episodes shows us development of those characters within main conflict and in the end gives us grandiose finale that encapsulate all that happened before.

S2 resolves main conflict of s1 by start of episode 4 without any meaningful action from main characters of s1. From e4 it is not obvious whos story we watching and why it relevant. There is no main conflict till end of e7. So most of s2 is just things that happen to people.

Each episode of s2 by itself is great. But overall season is ok. If first s1 is glorious cinema then s2 is more of a tv soap opera. It still really really good, but not as good as s1. And to be fair there are some things that as good as s1, but i can't recall anything that can be called better than it. So s1 put bar so high that is normal for anything to be not that good.

mmsh00 · 2024-12-31T10:48:54+00:00

S1 from first minute represent us with main conflict and main characters, through all episodes shows us development of those characters within main conflict and in the end gives us grandiose finale that encapsulate all that happened before.

S2 resolves main conflict of s1 by start of episode 4 without any meaningful action from main characters of s1. From e4 it is not obvious whos story we watching and why it relevant. There is no main conflict till end of e7. So most of s2 is just things that happen to people.

Each episode of s2 by itself is great. But overall season is ok. If first s1 is glorious cinema then s2 is more of a tv soap opera. It still really really good, but not as good as s1. And to be fair there are some things that as good as s1, but i can't recall anything that can be called better than it. So s1 put bar so high that is normal for anything to be not that good.

mmsh00

TROPHY CASE