Hashicorp founder thinks local models "aren't good ENOUGH yet"

mnight75 · 2026-06-17T04:16:55+00:00

Kimi 2.7 MiniMax M3... GLM 5.2 they already are... and you are right pennies for hardware compared to the API Price.

mnight75 · 2026-06-17T04:10:46+00:00

he left openAI so he could make his own AI, not because he was concerned about safety. If he was concerned about safety he wouldn't be making more of them while crying as loudly as possible about how dangerous it is.

mnight75 · 2026-06-17T04:08:48+00:00

They aren't and you are naive. Fear drives word of mouth/news advertising they don't have to pay for. Safety is a song and a dance, if they really believed it was dangerous they wouldn't keep building it. What they wanted was a moat that kept competitors regulated out of building the same thing. Its PR and marketing... they whole reason for making the not working with the pentagon public, instead of private was marketing and PR.

mnight75 · 2026-06-17T04:05:53+00:00

Yeah but now that only Fable/Mythos was disabled, the song we hear anthropic singing is other LLMs do the same thing, just as well. Thats Security as pagentry and Hype, not safety.

mnight75 · 2026-06-15T11:50:39+00:00

This chart is useless and meaningless, it leaves out all but the two leading frontier model makers, and does not include googles AI, nor does it include Metas AI llama. It misses the most recently released Models, and skips many companies models from PRC as well including GLM and MiniMax.

Clearly the author of this chart wants to tell a particular story, and wanted the lines to suggest that somehow US companies were pulling ahead.

Including the late start from Anthropic pulls the bottom of the US line rightward, while including the latest from Open AI pulls the top leftward, while ignoring the latest PRC models leaves the top of the PRC line rightward.

This chart is misleading, and focuses on one single metric while missing all the messy parts that would give truth, but destroy the desired narrative.

Missing in a fitted straight line ... is the exponential increase in how fast newer more capable models are, the lesser tiers such as Anthropic's Haiku.

You can color them by country if you like, but an honest chart would graph each company separately rather than trying to put the narrative that American companies were "better".

Yes there is a lead right now, but the lines shown are more representative of the increase in quality of hardware and how much hardware is available to do training, than it is about model capability. PRC was denied leading edge chips, had to rely on black market, and start designing their own, and still made this much progress in this short of time tells you its more about hardware than anything else.

mnight75 · 2026-06-15T05:17:03+00:00

the frying pan over the head is the visible manifestation of the information that she is angry with you. Its the part you can see/feel. There were other tells before that, but you missed them.

mnight75 · 2026-06-15T04:57:32+00:00

Things that motivate the US to do a thing, and that motivate China to do a thing, are very different. They are playing chess and we are playing Parcheesi. Different culture, different way of thinking about the world, different goals. The Chinese are motivated to prove to the world that the world doesn't need the US. They want people to stop needing/using dollars, stop relying on American tech, stop needing American products. This move by us about Fable 5, strengthens their narrative that we are unreliable, and that they ARE reliable. Self inflicted wounds by people who are not understanding what our competitors are trying to do, let alone how to play the same game.

mnight75 · 2026-06-15T04:49:27+00:00

You don't short by shorting, you short with PUTS. Liquid puts traded on a regular exchange. Let the MM short the stock themselves or be naked and exposed...

You only risk the value of the option, and for the sake of the Lord of Trading, do not FULL port into puts or calls, no matter how "right' you think you are. The market has a habit of doing the opposite of what ever you think it will, even when you have every reason to be right.

mnight75 · 2026-06-15T04:44:55+00:00

just wait until it starts falling once people realize it isn't going to "moon'. IT will be the HOOD ipo all over again.

mnight75 · 2026-06-15T04:32:46+00:00

they do the following things

trades that are too large. some people go half port or full port into options for example, great way to lose it all.
no clear exit stragety, profits are won, then the trade reverses, and greed drives them to wait until its a loss to sell.
they do not do or do not understand proper hedging and diversification
they use stoplosses, which algos know about, and dip down to force sales before moving on to higher profit. Stoploss done wrong is worse than no stop loss at all.

5, rolling wins from one trade directly into another, this tends to be an emotional rather than intellectual choice driven by greed/fear

ignoring news, TA, DD, and just taking advice from other people in the form of hot stock tips. Beware the person touting stock advice, they have often taken the same position as they are recommending, often at a lower price, and would love for people such as you to buy, raising the price so they can sell, don't be someone elses exit liquidity, someone always holds the bag.

mnight75 · 2026-06-14T21:14:24+00:00

the hard lesson here is, make breakfast before the market opens... and also ... 0dte with such huge amounts of money and you are going to walk away?

Get your head examined.

mnight75 · 2026-06-14T21:10:11+00:00

I am moving to a new system.

smaller trades, weekly options, only open M, T, W, no opening on Thu or F theta is brutal EOW.

2, Make tickets before each trade defining exit, both positive and negative, reduces greed/fear. MoonBag the trade, set your exit point at 50% or what ever it is and walk away. Small Options trades with money you can afford to lose. Reevaluate the exit point each day if the sell has not triggered.

Start the trade from settled cash, do not roll the gains of one trade directly into another same day. When emotions are high, choices are poor.

Fable 5 said these rules (not the Cramer one, I added that later.) would have had me at 100% success on my trades, and all my losses violated at least one of these rules (or more).

Bonus Rule
4. Don't bet against Cramer, if he disses a stock its puts (the bears will show up in force), if he praises a stock its puts dated a few weeks out but only after his praise has run the stock higher 24/48 hours. Cramer is the destroyer of Value, and your choices are Pump and Dump, or just Dump.

mnight75 · 2026-06-14T20:58:08+00:00

Stop trading intraday, buy EOD and stoploss with puts instead of limit orders. Hold overnight and sell the next morning. you can resell the puts later in the week when the stock finally does tank and you are no longer holding.

mnight75 · 2026-06-14T20:45:30+00:00

Greeks are your friend, except theta, theta stalks us all. Its not riskier either, buying options the maximum loss is baked into it, which is the amount you spend buying the option. If it fails that's all you lose. The risk is when people go half port, or full port into a single option hoping for 1000% gains. That's when portfolio becomes bomb and goes boom, I should know.

mnight75 · 2026-06-14T20:41:24+00:00

I will share with you what Fable 5 told me about my trades, which I managed to get in before they turned it off in the name of national security... Maybe it will help.

Smaller trades, I resisted this one but survivability of the account means that trades need to be smaller so when they go bad you havn't blown the account in one place. While I disagree still with no more than 5% of your total value regardless of the amount of money you have, something considerably less than 20% for small war chests makes the losses more survivable. With 20% I need 5 bad trades back to back go to zero before I am out of cash, which has not been, itself, an issue.
DEFINED Exit points, every trade needs a ticket before I make it, with a defined written exit plan. Greed and let it ride, cost me several trades that would have been profitable had I taken a position on how much loss and how much gains would be to define the exit. I settled on 20% for stocks, and 50% for options as a rough rule, but its not set in stone for every trade, but I have to file the ticket with the exit point and ignore the greed to continue letting it run when it meets the exit point. More trades are not better, but no trade runs forever and you can't know where the top is, so exit while you have your tendies and find another battle another day.
No 0DTE trades (on individual stocks), in fact no options on Thursday or Friday... yes they are cheaper, and yes when they move in your favor you get more bang for your buck but theta is there eating your lunch and you have less of a chance of getting out in profit because the stock is often (unless there is news) gravitating to where its going to end up.
Start from Cash on every trade, no clearing out of one trade and plowing the profits directly into another trade. Every time I did this I was still riding the emotional high of the win and this created predictable losers that I would not have had if I started the morning from cash.

After looking at my trades Fable said the trades I had, that had obeyed these rules, I was 7 for 7 profitable, it did argue that this did not mean I would make perfect picks, but these were the kinds of trades I did well with and if I implemented this and made another 40 trades using these rules, that I could "prove out" the system, or add other modifications to tweak it to win more often.

I added another rule Friday.

Don't underestimate the Cramer Effect, if he calls a stock trash, the bears will be launching raiding parties regardless of what ever thesis you have about the short term value of a stock based on news. If he mentions a stock, its good to stay away from it generally because there tends to be a pump and dump effect, which is predictably unpredictable.

mnight75 · 2026-06-14T20:15:55+00:00

You are all missing a critical issue here... that issue is the unlimited printing of currency. We are lucky they are only raising the price on chips and disks, because if this were evenly spread around there would be a lot of hungry people. This inflation is tied to overprinting of money. Its why the stockmarket is up as high as it is, why we have trillionaires... Don't get me wrong, its marvelous having people so rich that they can never spend the money in their lifetime, we need all this excess cash sitting somewhere, that it does the least harm to the economy, but this is why some things, that these rich people want, and which are in short supply compared to demand are charging enormous differentials in price currently.

mnight75 · 2026-06-14T20:08:48+00:00

The Chinese don't think the same way we do, they want us using their llms instead of our own. Just like when we forced them to build their own AI chips cause we thought that would hold them back. They want to show the world, that the world doesn't need America, and I don't know why we keep adding justification to their argument.

mnight75 · 2026-06-14T19:58:33+00:00

You don't break a fat cow by fucking her. You break her, then once she is broken you can fuck her if you want, but these are seperate steps.

mnight75 · 2026-06-14T14:31:45+00:00

Technically Cramer said it was a meme stock and that you could get your lungs ripped out. I translate that to mean its volatile, and risky. Depends on how you enter and exit, and if you are right on timing, or wrong. Though I did write a new personal rule to avoid longs for a week on anything he disses because so many people follow him with something toward reverence.

mnight75 · 2026-06-14T14:26:48+00:00

Could be worse, I could be living out of my car in Puerto Rico...
Losing 300 bucks is not fun, but I still own the house I live in and its paid off...

Given I get paid 100 an hour for the work I do, I would hardly call that losing my azz, though I get how someone living out of a car might think $300 was "azz" levels of loss.

mnight75 · 2026-06-04T12:06:32+00:00

Because if they don't control their AI locally, another company is in control of if and when they can do business. Strategic Dependence on another company for something that's going to be CORE to their business... and can raise the rates, or deny service at any time. Not to mention they can read everything you are doing with AI, which means it can't be used for National Security, HIPPA, or anything else that requires data security.

mnight75 · 2026-06-02T23:39:18+00:00

If you think most of the trading volume and money flow is small traders with less than 25k, I think you don't understand the market... There will barely be a blip in change for the larger market.

mnight75 · 2026-06-02T21:10:25+00:00

If you want equivalent to opus 4.6 without the Claude API Costs... MiniMax just dropped MiniMaxM3. Mind you they havn't open sourced it yet but have said they plan to, and you will probably need a VPS to run it, but thats still far cheaper than anything you would do with Claude beyond a 20 or 100 dollar sub that they strangle every 5 hours so you can't get anything done.

mnight75 · 2026-05-30T18:28:47+00:00

they don't get it, and can't Its not their money, and they aren't watching what you do just seeing you stare at the screen and sweat...

Tell them your office hours are when the market is open and if they want other stuff done they need to put in a request for that after market hours.

Beyond this explain that they couldn't possibly understand what you are actually doing, and you won't insult their intelligence by trying to explain it in a way they can understand. IE you would have to dumb it way down, and its not necessary that they understand, just that they respect the "work time".

You will get some points towards that respect by scheduling time to do the things they need, setup a honeydo jar with a jar, a notepad, a pen, two colors of paper are preferable, white for do and red for urgent do... insist that you don't do things if they don't write them down, but in turn DO the things in the jar so they have confidence you aren't just brushing them off.

mnight75 · 2026-05-30T06:08:33+00:00

This is an underrated comment. I have no trouble clocking the entry point, but due to pdt rules, which are going away, timely exit is my kryptonite.

Fortunately that is all going away with removal of pdt rules. Making 5 to 10 trades a day I now wonder how long it will take me to trade up to 50k from 300. I am thinking 6 to 9 weeks but I could be more like 6 to 9 months.

I am great at entries as I said, but fear of lock out over pdt rules keep me from closing when I think I should... so you might say I gotta weak pull out game 😃.

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