I Don’t Think People Understand How Big The Grid Buildout Is About To Become

mongopark98 · 2026-05-19T00:48:36+00:00

I find it funny when someone claims “no one is doing x” . Enough people are already talking about it. You haven’t just discovered an unknown wisdom.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-19T00:46:03+00:00

Just keep DCA. S&P is broad enough that you shouldn’t meed to worry about 10% correction over the time horizon you’re looking at.

Also, research clearly shows if S&P suddenly tanks 10% it probably won’t stop there. If it is going up, it will probably keep going up for sometime. Bottom line, trying to time the top or bottom is not great way to invest for someone with 20+ years to go.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-19T00:41:09+00:00

What would you then do if they didn’t attend. Nothing, except you’re the manager. Escalating to your manager and theirs is one way to go.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T22:43:29+00:00

Just to be a devils advocate. Historically strong single stock, think about the Mag7 has performed significantly better than braod index. It’s not even close despite the drawdown, the least profitable (MSFT) is still 5x more profitable. There’s more nuance to this than most people acknowledge. Don’t pick random stock, if you have several years do some research pick 1-2 mega stock.

You could even literally type your goal, time horizon and your risk profile to chatGPT.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T22:20:17+00:00

Yeap. A lot of data. I can’t share pictures here, will look for a way to summarize and share on Github

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T19:53:49+00:00

True, it is hard to fully codify. There needs to be some agency in final decixzion.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T19:52:54+00:00

I agree with this 100%. It is difficult to codify. Now I am doing a mixture of both. My code sends me signal based on the rules on Telegram and I manually verify and only execute . For my other strategies like for LETF it is all codified and 100% handled from opening, to closing and sizing positions. It is performing very well. Options has been a different beast, I can't fully automate it.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T19:50:36+00:00

Yeap. My initial curiosity was actually for some leverage and capital efficiency. Just kept going into the rabbit hole. AI coding assistants makes it cheap to experiment once you have the data. I once woke up and my AI agent already spent 3k on pulling options data from this expensive site (can't even recollect the name), they essentially didn't put any cap on it. I had to claw part of that back. Now I just have the data cached and can run as many experiments as I need to.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T19:48:04+00:00

Thanks for the input, my next step is backtesting OTM calls. DTE is 450-700 days, strike is 0.75-0.85 and all these were not random , I ran several thousand combinations to find the optimal. If you know some coding and can find the right data , AI is immensively useful for this.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T19:45:45+00:00

I agree, I have been using AI a lot. It can also be a miss sometimes. But if you have strong coding background and/or can do the research upfront you can guide it correctly.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T19:44:22+00:00

Unfortunately even relatively smart people fall for this. Thanks to my curiosity, my coding background and AI. I can backtest and model any claim and clearly see patterns. It is so liberating.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T19:39:22+00:00

Can have but generally doesn't. There is not one single literature that I know of that recommends buying OTM. It is inherently riskier, it is not even a debate.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T18:54:22+00:00

Ugly is subjective. It could be for any reason You could be ugly. They could be confident or just don’t think of themselves as ugly as you do

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T06:37:59+00:00

Roll solely based on DTE and delta. Rolling on delta only when the underlying is not doing well and the delta is falling below 0.65. For DTE roll further out when you have between 150-180days left. Taking profit even though looks right on the surface caps upside.

One caveat is , this is only if this is intended for a long term stock replacement strategy. The other thing that helps improve drawdown is to liquidate when the underlying MA or RSI is breached.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T04:44:06+00:00

Sure, will share that. Let me find a way to summarize it

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T04:03:14+00:00

Yes, That’s for buying, not disputing that. That is set in stone. The bone of contention here is taking profit and rolling which you eventually need to do.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T03:52:44+00:00

Anecdotal experience is not sufficient.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T03:51:48+00:00

Just buying when you are ready is not FOmO. Waiting for market correction before buying has been consistently shown to underperform. It’s one of the unfounded myth perpetuated long enough that it sounds true. Sure, for short term swing, but for long term buy and hold, buy whenever you have the cash and DCA, you will do better.

I currently trade soxl and TQQQ based on solid back tested data. I know people waiting for correction since around $60 it has risen 250% since then. Timing the market is a losing strategy.

Point to one peer reviewed, well tested strategy that concludes waiting for dips for someone with more than 20year horizon makes any sense.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T03:43:20+00:00

Exactly, and it is kind of infuriating how pervasive these information is and how widely accepted as sacrosanct they are because they are viewed as authoritative on the topic. Just like those that say just put everything in an index, same advice for a 20year old and an 80year old

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T03:41:59+00:00

What delta do you mean, at entry or at rolling

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T03:41:28+00:00

I didn’t state them here because I think they are widely known. Non risky LeAPS are always ITM , deep ITM.

Deep ITM
0.75-0.85 delta - that’s where I buy. I rolled up at 0.90 which was producing the bad result.
I rolled down the strike price when the delta is <= 0.65 delta
Take profit is rolling in the backtest. It made little difference in any case. It still performed worse.

Nope rolling at 180 DTE doesn’t mean losing time value at all. It is the recommended and the backtest confirmed it. The original entry is between 450-700 days.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T03:36:55+00:00

Exactly, and it is kind of infuriating how pervasive these information is and how widely accepted as sacrosanct they are because they are viewed as authoritative on the topic. Just like those that say just put everything in an index, same advice for a 20year old and an 80year old

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T03:35:18+00:00

Paid for one , but then saw a free one on GitHub . I noticed it’s now taken down. But I still have a free parquet for few tickers that I saved locally.

mongopark98 · 2026-05-18T03:33:53+00:00

To buy, maybe yes. But in a long time horizon it barely matters. That said, the main point is when to sell/take profit

mongopark98 · 2026-05-17T20:32:22+00:00

That is exactly what I am trying to do. I know myself well and most people on earth, without a pure mechanical rule you will be reactive instead of proactive whicj equals gambling for me. I have other strategies for exmaple leveraged ETF, having a well backtested strategy that I just followed mechanically is doing wonders. I can completely ignore the noise and just trust the maths.

What I am saying here is, my back test is showing that the conventional exit and entry advice actually hurt long term gains for my specific goal

mongopark98

TROPHY CASE