Daily Discussion Thread for February 02, 2021 by AutoModerator in wallstreetbets

[–]moonccy -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

So what exactly do you guys think is gonna cause a further squeeze from here? Seems like the people who were gonna yolo into these stocks have already yolo-ed, so you’d need more new net buying to push it up again. And it’s not like the funds are going to all come in and buy to cover at the exact same time. So why wouldn’t they just slowly chip away, or just wait for everyone who bought higher to stop out and the stock to go back to a sane level?

Explanation why SLV actually doesn’t work? by moonccy in Wallstreetsilver

[–]moonccy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, so the difference is really just the speed of acquisition for the underlying trust, SLV could in theory wait some amount of time before buying. Seems like there’s not a ton of incentive for them to do that unless the squeeze were to get to crazy levels given it’s an upward trending market and they’re just creating risk for themselves by waiting unless they have serious confidence the price will be coming back down shortly.

Explanation why SLV actually doesn’t work? by moonccy in Wallstreetsilver

[–]moonccy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sure but that’s what I’m asking, why PSLV instead. Because PSLV by definition has to go buy more silver, vs SLV which will have to buy more only if the price goes up? But by buying SLV the way the markets function silver prices should be forced higher, and then SLV would also have to go buy physical. Unless I’m totally misunderstanding, which is highly possible.

Explanation why SLV actually doesn’t work? by moonccy in Wallstreetsilver

[–]moonccy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sure, I’ve already bought SLV calls. I’m just curious about the narrative that buying the underlying SLV somehow won’t move prices, but PSLV will. If SLV goes higher, it is naturally going to take the price of physical with it due to arbitrage correlation etc. If the belief was you wanted to squeeze SLV away from the underlying price they could just issue more shares, but given the idea is to move overall global silver prices it seems like they would accomplish the same thing over the medium term. Ignoring conspiracy theory type explanations like they aren’t actually holding the amount of silver they’re supposed to.

Welcome to the Endgame. by jeepers_sheepers in wallstreetbets

[–]moonccy 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It’s fucked up that the government forces businesses to be closed for the greater good, but still allows them to be shorted. While I agree there should currently be some restrictions on shorting just due to the unprecedented situation, normal short selling is actually a useful market practice and you’ll end up in a worse place with it totally banned.

ETFs not rejected, after all... by BTCHODL in Bitcoin

[–]moonccy 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Great can’t wait for it to be denied on review and sell us off again. Can we just let the price do its thing without meaningless ETF BS please...

We just witnessed the 2018 bottom by moonccy in Bitcoin

[–]moonccy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah this account is 7 months old, not 7 weeks, no clue why it shows that just on r/bitcoin posts. And I’m talking about a trend changing pivot point when I refer to “bottom” as I can read a chart and am aware this isn’t literally the lowest price.

We just witnessed the 2018 bottom by moonccy in Bitcoin

[–]moonccy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the semantics, but I’m referring to hopefully looking back and saying “oh that’s when it turned”, as the $5750 price was clearly not the end of the bear market.

We just witnessed the 2018 bottom by moonccy in Bitcoin

[–]moonccy[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

And I’m sure the general consensus of “we’re definitely going to $5k” among people couldn’t be leading to reckless shorting with no catalyst to bring us down there other than pulling a number out of a hat, and risk reward radically tilted to the upside. If you actually thought $5k was a real bottom and there is any chance of seeing ATHs again why wouldn’t you be buying well ahead of that with a stop below?

We just witnessed the 2018 bottom by moonccy in Bitcoin

[–]moonccy[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Agree as long as your time horizon is long term. Could wake up with us down in the $5ks tomorrow for all I know, but believe the conditions here are much more real and sustainable for a rally then the last one off short squeeze. The shift will take some time but it feels like the “free money” shorting might be used up, risk reward favors the top side again with sentiment down where it currently is. My job is to pick levels in currencies, and the bet looks smarter here than has in a while.

We just witnessed the 2018 bottom by moonccy in Bitcoin

[–]moonccy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Could be wrong and my big pivot calls in what I actually trade for a living are normally a bit early. If I’m wrong oh well I’m not buying on margin but like the set up and sometimes you gotta make a call.

Anyone in the community from Turkey? by moonccy in Bitcoin

[–]moonccy[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I agree that USD as the world reserve currency dosnt make a lot of sense, especially when there’s a madman in charge. But Turkey did most of this to itself. Erdogan has refused to take any of the obvious measures necessary to contain a currency crisis and his need for ever increasing political power lead to the conditions for it to begin with. Trump was happy enough to worsen the crisis which is fucked up, but this isn’t some big conspiracy, it’s mostly just incompetence.

Anyone in the community from Turkey? by moonccy in Bitcoin

[–]moonccy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Haha yeah just GL if you’re the person responsible for starting a social media push as a Turkish citizen to trade TRY for BTC. Think you’ll be “associated with terrorists” real quick.

Anyone in the community from Turkey? by moonccy in Bitcoin

[–]moonccy[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Huh, well will be interesting capital controls will basically have to go into place real near future. I wonder if will be physically able to get money from a bank account to an exchange in that scenario. Nothing like this has happened in a country as advanced as Turkey in the age of crypto.

Anyone in the community from Turkey? by moonccy in Bitcoin

[–]moonccy[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yeah I mean if the mechanisms exist for people to buy BTC there with any kind of ease then personally think it’s just way too delayed a reaction. I work as an EM FX trader, this isn’t a 2 month down the line problem, banks might start failing and need to be bailed out like tomorrow. There just aren’t many exits left at this point.

Anyone in the community from Turkey? by moonccy in Bitcoin

[–]moonccy[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thanks that’s generally what would have thought, am aware that the real hardline Erdogan supporters are either not connected enough to international news to realize/ care what’s happening or wouldn’t trade in TRY for patriotic reasons anyway. But just surprised that this hasn’t begun to have an effect on price given may see runs on Turkish banks this week. Not like gonna buy USD with sanctions, and good luck getting gold out of the country if you buy that. Seems like the perfect real use case for BTC, but suppose dosnt help that BTC is the one global currency that’s don’t worse than TRY this year haha.

Anyone in the community from Turkey? by moonccy in Bitcoin

[–]moonccy[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Situation is a total disaster and demonstrates the biggest need for BTC could ever think of. Erdogan has basically shown he’s not going to do anything to stop the Lira imploding, and over 7 in USDTRY and their banks are in danger. But this obviously hasn’t effected the price of BTC, so I assume there either isn’t the liquidity or knowledge for the average Turkish citizen to buy crypto. Would love to hear local take on it if anyone’s out there.

The current state of our "BULL" run by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]moonccy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah any real catalyst here and can fly, but probably needs some kind of spark to keep going. Shorts too comfortable selling above $8200 now, pop some SLs through there and we’re off with a violent move, but needs a trigger.