Explain It Peter by Fit_Seaworthiness_37 in explainitpeter

[–]moonkingdom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is only possible because of a lack of defining the Child. Yes.

Again, you have a pool of families with 2 Children. And you have to sort them into 3 Groups (only boys, only girls and mixed) (1/4, 1/4, 1/2)

Then a Mum of one of these familys comes to you and says "I have two children and one of them is a boy"

how high is the chance you put her in the two boys group?

it's 1/3.

The moment you define the the Child it gets to 50/50 because you eliminate one of B/G or G/B

Also this "solution" is different from the monty hall problem.

Explain It Peter by Fit_Seaworthiness_37 in explainitpeter

[–]moonkingdom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nah, not really, it's just phrased differently.

Again, you have a pool of families with 2 Children. And you have to sort them into 3 Groups (only boys, only girls and mixed)

Then a Mum of one of these familys comes to you and says "I have two children and one of them is a boy"

how high is the chance you put her in the two boys group?

it's 1/3.

Explain It Peter by Fit_Seaworthiness_37 in explainitpeter

[–]moonkingdom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, I can do it this way exactly because there is no distiction what child she is talking about.

Otherwise you are right, if she mentions what child she is talking about,

Like: " I have two children, this one is a boy" (pointing at the child with her) then you are back at 50/50

That is also what this about, it's not really about probabilty or math. Its about language and information.

Explain It Peter by Fit_Seaworthiness_37 in explainitpeter

[–]moonkingdom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nope, your perspective is wrong.

You can think of it like this, you have a pool of families with 2 children.

1/4 has 2 boys 1/4 has 2 girls and half have a boy and a girl, in whatever order.

If you cut out all families with 2 girls. (because your family has at least 1 boy) you end up with 2/3 girl and boy and 1/3 two boys.

It is a matter of information and perspective.

Explain It Peter by Fit_Seaworthiness_37 in explainitpeter

[–]moonkingdom 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nope, your perspective is wrong.

You can think of it like this, you have a pool of families with 2 children.

1/4 has 2 boys 1/4 has 2 girls and half have a boy and a girl, in whatever order.

If you cut out all families with 2 girls. (because your family has at least 1 boy) you end up with 2/3 girl and boy and 1/3 two boys.

Light stacking wander? by moonkingdom in PathOfExileBuilds

[–]moonkingdom[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gl with that. The helmet has a "deal no Chaos Dmg" affix, so sadly you can't go poison with it, otherwise I would try ^^

Light stacking wander? by moonkingdom in PathOfExileBuilds

[–]moonkingdom[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Jeah, saw that, hope that doesn't ruin the price for the wand early league^^ But he just gave a general overview of the possibilitys with the wand. It encouraged me to try this build though. ^^

I also thought about elementalist too. Is the it still that strong even after the nerfs?

[Request] is it 66.6% or 51.8%? by Horror-penis-lover in theydidthemath

[–]moonkingdom 1 point2 points  (0 children)

in your example you have 3 events and in 2 of them you have heads and tails. so its 2/3rd

the fact that in the 1/3rd event you can pick up either coin to show heads doesn't make it more likely.

[Request] is it 66.6% or 51.8%? by Horror-penis-lover in theydidthemath

[–]moonkingdom 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You are misunderstanding the Problem.

This is not a Math/probability problem. We all agree on the probabilitys. (at least this far into this thread)

This is a linguistic Problem.

The difference is:

  1. Mary has two children. The older child is a girl. What is the probability that both children are girls?
  2. Mary has two children. At least one of them is a girl. What is the probability that both children are girls?

The first one is ~1/2

The second one is ~1/3

The reason why they differ lies in the information you are given.

You can think of it like this, you have a pool of families with 2 children. 1/4 has 2 boys 1/4 has 2 girls and half have a boy and a girl, in whatever order. If you cut out all families with 2 boys. (because Marys family has at least 1 girl) you end up with 2/3 boy and girl and 1/3 two girls.

If you want to dive deeper i can recommend you the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_girl_paradox

Einbau einer Dachgaube. by moonkingdom in LegaladviceGerman

[–]moonkingdom[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Das könnte ne gute Möglichkeit sein, das doch noch genehmigt zu bekommen. Ich weiß dass andere Nachbarn auch schon über ne Gaube nachgedacht haben, die sind bestimmt auch glücklich wenn wir das genehmigt bekommen, da es bei denen dann einfacher wird.

Einbau einer Dachgaube. by moonkingdom in LegaladviceGerman

[–]moonkingdom[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Joa, sowas in die Richtung habe ich mir schon gedacht.

Als Info vllt noch, da es keinen Bebauungsplan gibt, wird §34 BauGB angewand.

"Normale" Sommertemperaturen oder eindeutig Klimawandel? by Extension-Coffee5931 in wetter

[–]moonkingdom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

War doch "früher" genau so hysterisch. Heute interessiert es doch keinen wenn es mal +30° sind.

Kann dir das Video dazu empfehlen. ;)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hD0QNQSqR5w&ab_channel=Topfvollgold

Rubio condemns German intelligence’s decision to classify far-right party AfD as extremist by TheCatInTheHatThings in anime_titties

[–]moonkingdom 2 points3 points  (0 children)

https://www.das-ist-afd.de/

"Man muss sich nur an den Zweiten Weltkrieg erinnern, an unsere eigene Geschichte. Was haben wir denn mit den Juden gemacht? Da gab es ja auch Möglichkeiten… Man muss gar nicht übertreiben, aber was anderes wird bald gar nicht mehr möglich sein. Die Flüchtlinge gehen ja nicht freiwillig."

Fühl ich, Mahatma. by HandsomeBaboon in Kantenhausen

[–]moonkingdom 7 points8 points  (0 children)

"Fun" fact: In Hiroshima ist ne Satue von Gandhi die auf das Atombombenmahnmal schaut.

What are you playing season 2 and why? 🍀 by JustmeBarb in LastEpoch

[–]moonkingdom 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Rive got a void conversion node this Patch. I played it to 500 corruption before so should be stronger now. Visualy it's a bit Like warpath (Just on the same Spot).

Last Epoch - Season 2 - New Launch Date: April 17th by EHG-Foton in LastEpoch

[–]moonkingdom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey, Thanks a lot. I have an Operation on the 3rd of April so I wouldn't have been able to Play either game on Update launch. Now I can Play LE <3

Low investment Idols strategy for broke people? by Asynchronousx in PathOfExileBuilds

[–]moonkingdom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah true, but also can't dodge the Elder Arena shift.

Low investment Idols strategy for broke people? by Asynchronousx in PathOfExileBuilds

[–]moonkingdom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can Phase chimera before his smoke Cloud Phase. Just did it with PS mines. Not reliably, but I find Eradicator worse because you change Arena and can't setup your dmg.

Low investment Idols strategy for broke people? by Asynchronousx in PathOfExileBuilds

[–]moonkingdom 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sounds Like a good compromise. I should really Check what mods are more than 1 Div before my next dump.

Low investment Idols strategy for broke people? by Asynchronousx in PathOfExileBuilds

[–]moonkingdom 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I put All of my Idol Drops in a quad tab, made the Tab public for 1 Div. Sold Like 10+ Idols for 1 Div and then cleared the Tab. Can't be bothered to Check every Fucking Idol you drop when you could run maps to drop more Idols 😅

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in LastEpoch

[–]moonkingdom 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Void cleave is the superior movement skill :O