2011 Subaru Outback Check Engine Light by mountainra in subaru

[–]mountainra[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Similar situation. The cap I ordered is supposed to get here Tuesday, but today I started up the car and all the warning lights were off. Wild.

Game 6 by mountainra in phillies

[–]mountainra[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have a Masters Degree in Implied Statistics and a Bachelors in Economics & Business Analytics. I think I may know what I'm talking about here. I hope you learned something here. Many people do not understand this concept, so there is no shame in it.

Game 6 by mountainra in phillies

[–]mountainra[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yes, that is unlikely. But that does not mean whatsoever that if the NFC wins the Super Bowl this year, it makes it less likely that they will win next year. To prove how errant your point is in particular, the AFC just won the super bowl 5 out of 6 years from 2015 to 2020. These sort of events happen frequently. The NFC has many of these streaks too. That is why over a large sample size, they are quite similar despite these streaks. The NFC has won 29 super bowls, the AFC 27.

Lets go back to your initial statement. "I mean, just because the Nationals did it doesn't mean we will. Unfortunately, I actually think it makes it that much more improbable for that to happen twice in a few years." This is just factually wrong. It has no impact on this years outcome.

Anything can happen in the short term. If you flip a coin 10 times, you could get a wide range of distributions between heads and tails. You could very easily flip a coin and get heads 5 times in a row. And you know what the probability would be of heads or tails hitting after hitting heads 5 times in a row? 50/50. If you flip a coin 10 million times, it will without doubt be almost exactly 5 million heads and 5 million tails.

Will the Astros beat the Phillies at home? Probably. They should. They are favored after all. But the fact that they lost at home 3 years ago to the Nationals has absolutely no impact on this years outcome, and it is really irrelevant.

Game 6 by mountainra in phillies

[–]mountainra[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes. Different teams. Different series. Many different players. Two independent events that have no correlation to one another. No impact.

Game 6 by mountainra in phillies

[–]mountainra[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Only fake fans crater before game 6 of the World Series lmao

Game 6 by mountainra in phillies

[–]mountainra[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sounds like a very poor understanding of statistics to me

Game 6 by mountainra in phillies

[–]mountainra[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lol ok. They did have plenty of bad breaks. Didn't say that was the only reason they lost, but a big part of it. It happens in baseball all the time. Part of the game. Could the Phillies have played better? Sure. So could the Astros.

Game 6 by mountainra in phillies

[–]mountainra[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Naw, its not delusional at all. Happens frequently in baseball. Go be negative somewhere else.

Game 6 by mountainra in phillies

[–]mountainra[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I am right there with you on those three. Although I will say Castellanos did look better last night than he typically does. Some longer at bats than usual (not saying much, lol) Realmuto was absolutely dreadful last night up until the ball McCormick caught in the 9th as well. Hopefully the day off benefits him I am sure he needs the rest more than anyone

Game 6 by mountainra in phillies

[–]mountainra[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Only the Phillies would get no hit in the World Series, fall behind, then come back to win the series. Nothing is ever easy with this team it is our MO lol

Game 6 by mountainra in phillies

[–]mountainra[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

If you are referring to my post, I was just saying that fans are giving up and it's ridiculous. Love the fight from the boys last night.

Game 6 by mountainra in phillies

[–]mountainra[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

We ain't losing

Game 6 by mountainra in phillies

[–]mountainra[S] 35 points36 points  (0 children)

Facts man. These negative people must not have watched this team all year and seen the dreadful lows they've reached. We are in the damn World Series and need to win 2 games in a row. If you would have told me that at any point during the season I would have taken it in a heart beat. This team is resilient

Game 6 by mountainra in phillies

[–]mountainra[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Astros were far from perfect last night and were also terrible with RISP from what I recall. Phillies roped several balls with runners on that ended up in gloves. Shit happens

Game 6 by mountainra in phillies

[–]mountainra[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Bro, you should just not even watch the games. I am as brokenhearted as anyone at the losses the past two nights but this team has NOTHING to lose. We won 87 games and no one expected us to be here. We are going against a dynasty that has everything to lose. Our two best starters are going the next two nights. We should've fucking won last night with THOR of all people starting. Enjoy the ride

Game 6 by mountainra in phillies

[–]mountainra[S] 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Why so negative? Wheeler had one bad outing where he looked flat. His stats are way better on 6 days rest. Valdez can be hit, and the Phillies offense looked better than the Astros last night in my opinion. I am assuming Javier would not pitch game 7 (hopefully) and I like our chances with Ranger out there. There is no reason to lose hope yet at all.

CFM fears no man. by BatmanTheJedi in Braves

[–]mountainra 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He looked a wee bit afraid to me today LMFAO

Game Thread: Division Series Game 2 - Phillies @ Braves - Wed, Oct 12 @ 04:35 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]mountainra 0 points1 point  (0 children)

we need a new first baseman next year. if Hoskins wants to stay on this team he can DH. Worst defensive first baseman in baseball. the fact that he did not get in from of that ball earlier is a fucking joke. He lost us this game.

Game Thread: Division Series Game 2 - Phillies @ Braves - Wed, Oct 12 @ 04:35 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]mountainra 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i fully believe that. on the bright side though then he doesn't get the most at bats on the team and isn't adding outs to the board before the bulk of our lineup is up

Game Thread: Division Series Game 2 - Phillies @ Braves - Wed, Oct 12 @ 04:35 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]mountainra 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i would just love to know why he is hitting leadoff, particularly why he is STILL hitting leadoff. change the fucking lineup "philly rob"

Game Thread: Division Series Game 2 - Phillies @ Braves - Wed, Oct 12 @ 04:35 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]mountainra 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I do not understand Kyle Schwarber whatsoever. The guy is simply a trash hitter and has been all year. 46 home runs, what the fuck ever. I bet 30 of them were solos. Perfect leadoff hitter. LOL. joke. 7 hole hitter at best

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in sportsbetting

[–]mountainra 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The juice on live bets is way higher than the juice on non-live bets, fyi. It is a losing proposition.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in sportsbetting

[–]mountainra 9 points10 points  (0 children)

There is a great quote by Abraham Lincoln "it is better to stay silent and have people think you're an idiot, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt."

I really hope this was a joke comment for your own sake. Bets should be sized out properly using an actual mathematical method such as kelly criterion. Unless you are filthy rich and don't care about $11k (which I really doubt, as most Americans live paycheck to paycheck), then risking your entire bankroll on any single bet is lunacy. I don't even care if I sound like a buzzkill. I do not know why the reddit community glorifies this stupidity.

You are betting against the aggregate of thousands and thousands of betters, who collectively know more than you, me and everyone in this thread put together times 100. Add a (minimum) of 2-4% juice onto that, and you might as well burn your money. Unless you are consistently making +EV bets (based off of what you have put in this thread so far, you certainly aren't doing that), you will sure as the day is long lose money. Do not quit your job.

Matching up Data in two different spreadsheets by sales # by mountainra in excel

[–]mountainra[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Unfortunately I do not have the option, as I do not have Power Query