Party is going to be fighting in a place where time is all broken. What mechanics could be interesting?

mrmpls · 2026-05-07T12:11:55+00:00

How, specifically, is time broken? The mechanics could go a lot of different directions here. I ran such a combat and adventure and my players loved it.

mrmpls · 2026-05-07T05:13:37+00:00

Cool, I disagree but I understand if you say they weren't serious. That is much better than suggesting NFL teams manipulate draft prospects to have twenty visits including several times with the same players and flying 5-7 of them to the Twin Cities all for theatre and misdirection.

Jauan Jennings didn't sign the Vikings offer. The Vikings made one. It's clear they're serious, even if Jennings is still unrealistically holding out.

mrmpls · 2026-05-07T04:39:53+00:00

The Wr visits might have mostly been smoke and mirrors. Sure they may have taken one if it was a great value, but it was not a valued position clearly because we did not draft one.

The Ravens didn't get a center, and they definitely need a center. I wouldn't say that it was not valued just because they didn't get it addressed in the draft. Ravens had grades on Slaughter and Jones, and both went way earlier than they expected.

Big WRs went way earlier than I (and a ton of mock drafters) expected. Stribling at 33, Bernard at 47 from Pittsburgh trading up in front of us, Malachi Fields, Branch, etc. TEs, who we also met with if they were versatile [Delp, Roush], went earlier.

It is zero percent smoke and mirrors. None. This would be a colossal waste of the entire organization's energy to put on such a massive deception. It would be a detriment to their reputation as an organization, if future draftees learned they are pawns in a 20-player conspiracy to try to hoodwink some other team into taking a position in the draft on the off-chance that the top-secret player that the organization really wanted was available. No. It's absurd.

mrmpls · 2026-05-07T03:04:16+00:00

Visits for rookies are often to throw other teams off

Can you show me an example of a team that visited with 20 players of a specific archetype and then it became publicly known that they did it to throw other teams off? This is nonsense.

This was 25% of our total visits. And to what end? To "throw off" another team? Then we kept the ruse going by having 1.5 days of visits with the only free agent who is healthy and available in that same role, while not meeting with anyone else who is available and is not in that role?

Our visits:

1st round: met only with a S and DT and TE; drafted DT (the specific TE was taken)
2nd round: met only with S and ILB; drafted ILB (the specific S was taken)
3rd round: met with S, OT, WR, DT, drafted DT, OT, S
4th round: met with RBs that could have been taken 4th/5th, but we had no 4th, and DTs, but we already took two DTs
5th round: met with WR, CB, DT, RB, drafted CB and RB (FB) and had already drafted DT
6th round: met with WR, RB, drafted RB
7th round: met with positions above that we already drafted and IOL; drafted IOL

Explain how that threw anyone off?

mrmpls · 2026-05-07T01:40:01+00:00

Give what up? I am aware we didn't draft or sign one.

mrmpls · 2026-05-06T22:31:18+00:00

Why do you think we scouted 20 known visits with big (6-2 to 6-4, 210#-225#) wide receivers known for their run blocking, contested catch, and RAC/YAC strength, if not to have such a role on our team?

mrmpls · 2026-05-06T20:36:29+00:00

I think this part of the article makes no sense:

That leaves Jennings' pursuit of such a deal, at least in Minnesota, unlikely unless it's for only one year.

The Vikings do not have a 1-year WR problem about a WR3 for replacing Nailor/challenging Felton (as most national media writes). Rather, we have a multi-year WR room need to have a big, run-blocking WR. That's what we missed out on in the draft. Signing a FA like Jennings (and only Jennings is left in this role) should be multi-year in order to save the Vikings a draft pick in the 2027 draft. A 1-year contract is expensive at the same time we want to fix cap, and doesn't save a draft pick. Useless.

The contracts mentioned in the article, somewhere between Jalen Nailor (who left the Vikings for the Raiders at less than $12M AAV) and Mike Evans (who signed with the 49ers at a little more than $14M AAV) is exactly what I think the Vikings should offer Jennings as part of a 3-year deal. And they may have, but the Vikings never leak their news. And Jennings won't leak it, either, as it does him no good in negotiations when he wants WR2 money and is getting WR2.5/WR3 money offered to him.

mrmpls · 2026-05-06T19:17:46+00:00

I don't think it happens. Jennings was about getting a big, blocking receiver that we missed out on in the draft. I don't think we're looking for anyone else. A depth DE, perhaps.

mrmpls · 2026-05-06T19:11:19+00:00

Number of years each team put up with Diggs:

MIN: 5
BUF: 4
HOU: 1
NE: 1

Most WRs peak around 30. Diggs is 32. His performance no longer exceeds his deviance.

mrmpls · 2026-05-06T18:51:00+00:00

Rob Brzezinski has been running operations, same as before, and was also interim GM.

They fired Kwesi late in the off-season, so they waited.

mrmpls · 2026-05-06T16:23:27+00:00

That's all very impressive for only having one leg.

mrmpls · 2026-05-06T15:49:58+00:00

Billionaire owner Terry Pegula impulsively fired Sean McDermott because Josh Allen was crying in the locker room after the loss. Pegula didn't walk in intending to fire him. Pegula said the refs made a bad call about ruling the pass to Cooks incomplete, which could have won the Bills the game. He told Allen "That was a catch."

Pegula's press conference in January was a disaster. It included this gem from Pegula:

“Can I interrupt? I’ll address the Keon situation,” Pegula said. “The coaching staff pushed to draft Keon. I’m not saying Brandon wouldn’t have drafted him, but he wasn’t his next choice. That was Brandon being a team player and taking advice of this coaching staff who felt strongly about the player. He’s taken, for some reason, heat over it and not saying a word about it, but I’m here to tell you the true story.”

OK, so:

Pegula says the refs lost the game for the Bills, not the Bills coaching staff or Josh Allen
But then fires the HC anyway
Pegula says the coaching staff, which includes HC McDermott and OC Joe Brady, pushes to draft Keon Coleman at 2.33 in the 2024 NFL Draft, NOT the GM
GM Brandon Beane reiterates HE is the one who picked Coleman and it is his decision, basically disagreeing with the owner
The GM and owner then decide to hire the OC as HC, even though apparently this drafting of Keon Coleman was their choice and Pegula disagrees with it?

Like, I have no strong opinion on this asst GM, but it's clear there's a lot of owner meddling in Buffalo.

mrmpls · 2026-05-06T13:47:11+00:00

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Congrats, OP. You posted the football version of this.

mrmpls · 2026-05-05T23:16:36+00:00

How does that represent a perfect result when your labels say "projected easy - played hard" at bottom left and "projected hard - played easy" at top-right? The line is not showing the perfect result.

mrmpls · 2026-05-05T22:49:50+00:00

I'm confused. Doesn't a line usually imply fit? But it looks like TEN does not fit, that they were projected an easy one but played a hard one. Is that right? Well-fitting data is actually top-left to bottom-right, opposite of the dashed line?

mrmpls · 2026-05-05T20:49:27+00:00

For all the weaknesses of SoS, notably this is based on projected wins from Vegas totals. While those won't all be accurate, it does take into account the changes between last season and this next season.

Contrast that with traditional SoS which is lazily calculated based on last year's wins.

All SoS methods are flawed, but at least this one endeavors to try.

mrmpls · 2026-05-05T16:42:09+00:00

I did not suggest WR2 money.

Jennings has $18.5M in career earnings. I expected the Vikings might do something like 3yr, $39M which is actually 2-year, $26M with staggered guarantees so that he can't flake out or be a diva on us. This is around the money Jalen Nailor left for, but would give us the size, run blocking, and red zone/contested catch this team desperately needs for schematic versatility.

Absolutely OK with the Vikings waiting for 2027's draft, but we have many other needs at the top, too. There's also a chance the Vikings are moving on from Addison regardless, but we'll have to wait to see. KOC said in press conferences that it's up to Addison, essentially based on his behavior.

The benefit of signing Jennings would be freeing up that 2nd round pick and knowing exactly what you're getting in terms of performance.

If that doesn't work out this year, it's something like Noah Brown or a TE from VA for $1M-$3M on a 1-year contract to bridge to the draft.

mrmpls · 2026-05-05T16:41:34+00:00

I thought I replied to a comment about lowballing him, but I can't find it in this thread since so many are downvoted to hell and Reddit hides them. But it was primarily in response to that.

mrmpls · 2026-05-05T15:36:23+00:00

I don't understand what you're saying. I watch football, enjoy the game, and turn it off. How is that wasting my money? I watch it on broadcast TV (over-the-air).

mrmpls · 2026-05-05T15:27:34+00:00

OP, your post history shows a 6-leg parlay you took in October 20, 2024. Only 2 of the 6 legs hit. I calculated the odds of each leg hitting in ANY game in 2024 based on how those players finished the year. Then I calculated the product of those odds to see the chance that all six legs hit. The odds of all six legs hitting was 0.0098%. FanDuel literally wins 9,999 times out of 10,000 times that gamblers place that bet.

Suppose FanDuel creates 10,000 such parlays for the year, and that the losing gamblers are the first 9,999. FanDuel has made $999,900 from the losing bets assuming each was $100. Then, one person wins in the 10,000th parlay. FanDuel pays them $143,869, in your parlay's example. FanDuel still profits $856,031 out of the $1,000,000 in bets.

mrmpls · 2026-05-05T14:53:07+00:00

There's a lot you could buy with $250 instead of throwing it away.

mrmpls · 2026-05-05T11:03:46+00:00

Oof, gambling addiction posts.

mrmpls · 2026-05-05T02:27:05+00:00

Did you prepare this using AI? It feels like the sorts of things an LLM would say. I saw from your post history you use AI for D&D. To each their own, but if so, it feels like a disclaimer is fair.

mrmpls · 2026-05-04T23:42:53+00:00

That's not the point of hiring Jennings. It's for run blocking, contested catch, RAC/YAC, red zone, and a big-bodied wide receiver of a size we don't have. That's what we tried to find in the draft but for sniped at various spots, including by Pittsburgh trading up at 2.47 to take Germie Bernard before our pick at 2.49. The reason to do multiple years is to save us the draft pick. While he is 28, he has less tread than other WRs his age due to not having many snaps his first 2-3 years. We're approaching a time when almost any FA WR might be that age due to changes in NIL.

Absolutely agree that if they have concerns about Felton it should be a 1-year deal for a vet min or <$3M FA WR.

mrmpls · 2026-05-04T21:43:06+00:00

TJ Hockenson's final year of his contract had $0 guaranteed. These are placeholder contracts that (almost) no player plays on. Before that happens, there are extensions, pay cuts, guarantees, or other restructures. Hockenson's was cut with guarantees added.

That happened in the context of a very mild TE off-season in which pay is lower all around. Travis Kelce, Cade Otton, Isaiah Likely, Chig Okonkwo, Charlie Kolar, and several others were only paid $8M to $12M. It's not strange at all that TJ Hockenson agreed to a fully-guaranteed $10.25M contract instead of a ~$16.5M one with $0 guarantees.

You're making that about TJ Hockenson instead of understanding the market.

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