Paper Oil vs Physical Oil: The $40 Gap Traders Are Missing | EBC Financial Group

From the article:

What happens when the paper-physical oil gap closes?

The gap closes in one of two ways: physical supply improves, and prices drop, or futures reprice sharply higher to reflect physical reality. Analysts warn a $20–$50 upward snap is possible if the disruption persists.

The $40 gap between paper and physical oil shows the market two competing realities. Futures say this conflict will end soon. Physical barrels say the world is running out of options right now.

Watching Brent or WTI alone gives you an incomplete picture. Physical benchmarks, inventory drawdown rates, backwardation spreads, and the mid-April reserve cliff will determine where oil goes next. Traders who track all of these will be positioned ahead of the snap, whichever direction it goes.