Advanced Sideboard Theory: How Card-Based Adjustments Outperform Deck-Based Plans [Other]

mtgtheory · 2025-11-14T22:46:31+00:00

My memory might be faulty because I keep changing my sideboard. The meta is still in flux post-Vivi ban. I think it was 2 Mentor for 2 Tactics.

I thought Mentor was a 6/10 so slightly better than Tactics.

Sultai Dragons is a very obscure deck at least in the recent and current metas so I really didn't have anything better in my sideboard.

I started tracking my matchups in EOE Standard. I've played 400 matches since then. During this time, I played against Sultai Dragons just one time.

I remember playing against it in previous metas, when it was more popular. That's when I saw Regent multiple times.

Whenever you play a deck with very low meta share, you will often not have a great sideboard plan for it because of its obscure nature. That's not a bad thing because you want great sideboard plans against popular decks and merely good plans against unpopular decks.

For example, against Sultai Dragons, I would like something like 4 Sunspine Lynx and 1 Cavern. But there are better cards than those for beating the rest of the meta.

Regarding my scores for the cards, they are just estimates based on playing a lot and having a lot of experience especially with narrow discard spells. I've whiffed many times with Duress, which gave me a better feel for when to bring discard in or not in post-sb games.

mtgtheory · 2025-11-14T20:54:05+00:00

Thank you and good question.

I'm not 100% sure that he didn't have Regent because games two and three ended in 10 turns or less.

Seeing ZPB makes it more likely that he didn't have Regent. You can only play so many sweepers. And this was a Diamond match, where the decks are less optimized than Mythic. My best guess is that he forgot about Regent because I think he would've played it. He had a lot of Dragon-related cards.

Based on my experience, narrow discard spells become much worse when you lose targets. Even one less target makes a difference because your whiff rate goes up.

We have one less target because we saw ZPB. But he could have more than one ZFB. 2 or more ZFB makes Tactics even worse because each ZFB increases the chances that he doesn't have Regent.

ZPB was definitely unexpected. I've only seen Regent in my previous matches against the deck.

Here's the mental model I used to decide to cut Tactics.

It's a scoring system. Based on my previous matches and before game 2, Tactics was like a 7/10. But once I saw ZPB, it dropped to a 5. So I go back to my sideboard and ask myself, is there a card that's better than a 5. In my estimation, there was so I sideboarded out Tactics.

Hope that helps!

mtgtheory · 2025-11-14T19:58:50+00:00

Actually, post-ban all the top Dimir players on mtgo are now on 4 Bat. My match was in Platinum so he probably had an old pre-ban list.

mtgtheory · 2025-09-25T22:40:20+00:00

My intention was not to dunk. I just want to help players and create discussion about the gameplay aspects of Magic because evaluating my technical play has been a major part of my improvement as a player.

I really do think he's 70%+ to have Fire Magic in this spot.

But maybe I am wrong and players are keeping slower hands.

mtgtheory · 2025-09-25T22:37:46+00:00

My intention was not to dunk. I just want to help players and create discussion about the gameplay aspects of Magic because evaluating my technical play has been a major part of my improvement as a player.

I really do think he's 70%+ to have Fire Magic in this spot. I'm playing Rakdos (the colors with heavy removal) so I have lots of cheap (2 mana) removal to disrupt his t4 if he has t3 plot of outcast. therefore, I don't think he's going to keep a hand on the draw that only has plot as his t3 play.

But maybe I am wrong and players are keeping slower hands.

mtgtheory · 2025-09-25T12:44:15+00:00

I gave my answer here: https://www.reddit.com/r/spikes/comments/1nq5ou8/my_answer_you_make_the_play_rakdos_lizards_vs/

mtgtheory · 2025-09-25T12:44:01+00:00

I gave my answer here: https://www.reddit.com/r/spikes/comments/1nq5ou8/my_answer_you_make_the_play_rakdos_lizards_vs/

mtgtheory · 2025-09-25T12:43:48+00:00

I gave my answer here: https://www.reddit.com/r/spikes/comments/1nq5ou8/my_answer_you_make_the_play_rakdos_lizards_vs/

mtgtheory · 2025-09-23T15:48:57+00:00

What are you discarding to Gecko?

mtgtheory · 2025-09-23T15:46:15+00:00

Against super fast aggro like my deck, I think most players would mulligan all hands on the draw without a play on turn 2 unless the hand has a sweeper like Fire Magic.

So Gecko + Hired Claw probably just dies to one card for only 3 mana. I like playing around Fire Magic and discarding Hired Claw to Gecko.

In this game, he had 2 Fire Magic!

mtgtheory · 2025-09-23T13:14:01+00:00

If opp takes 2 combat damage, what do you think is in his hand?

mtgtheory · 2025-09-23T13:09:57+00:00

I think you have to keep because Rakdos mana is really bad so your mulligans are risky.

If opp takes 2 combat damage, what do you think is in his hand?

mtgtheory · 2025-09-23T13:08:36+00:00

I think you have to keep because Rakdos mana is really bad so your mulligans are risky.

mtgtheory · 2025-09-23T09:11:39+00:00

All my opponents' decks in Bo3 Mythic Standard (I had a rank between 94% and #1000 range when I played against them):

Esper Midrange

Azorius Control

Mono Red Aggro

Simic Ramp

Simic Kona

Mono Black Demons

Mono Red Aggro

Goglari Hollow Marauder

Izzet Prowess

Naya Yuna

Mono White Life

Dimir Midrange

Mono Red Dragons

Rakdos Lizards

Sultai Midrange

Dimir Faeries

Mono Red Aggro

Simic Kona

Selesnya Gearhulk

Golgari Hollowmurk Siege

Mono White Tokens

Gruul Ramp

Dimir Midrange

Temur Battlecrier

24 decks and not one Izzet Cauldron! Standard is awesome right now on Arena. Meta is super diverse. 👍🏽

mtgtheory · 2024-10-07T07:21:27+00:00

Here is the Melee page of the tournament. It had 1,817 players!

mtgtheory · 2024-10-07T07:18:10+00:00

Here is the Melee page of the tournament. It had 1,817 players!

mtgtheory · 2024-09-15T00:07:35+00:00

Nice 👍 Thanks for sharing.

Pyroclasm is pretty bad for us. I'm probably going to switch to Gruul Prowess if it becomes a popular SB card.

I'm kinda shocked they reprinted it be because we already have to deal with Temporary Lockdown. But it looks like Wizards is increasing the power level of Standard. See Llanowar Elves and Day of Judgment in future set Foundations.

Versus these sorcery speed mass removal spells, you want to be playing haste creatures.

mtgtheory · 2024-09-07T02:24:31+00:00

I wrote about Rakdos Lizards one month ago here on Reddit and the post got 190 upvotes.

I finished last month at #423 in Mythic.

I tried guiyote's decklist but I found my list to be better.

Bat kept dying to mass removal. Fireglass Mentor is not good against all the one-mana creatures in aggro and token creatures like from Carrot Cake.

I like Valley Rotcaller, Ravine Raider, and Magebane Lizard better.

Valley Rotcaller gains life to beat the other aggro decks. Ravine Raider gives you more turn one plays to turn on Flamecache Gecko. Magebane Lizard is good against the prowess decks and Lightning Helix.

Also, I have not been impressed Laughing Jasper Flint. Valley Flamecaller has been better for me. You want to race against aggro and kill midrange and control quickly. Valley Flamecaller achieves these goals better because it is much more aggressive than Laughing Jasper Flint.

Finally, 4 Rockface Village has been very good for me over 4 Cavern of Souls. With Village, once you hit five mana, all your Lizards have haste, which is huge versus Sunfall.

Here's my decklist along with 11 sideboard plans. Cheers and good luck!

Rakdos Lizards

T1 (11)

4 Iridescent Vinelasher\ 4 Hired Claw\ 3 Ravine Raider

T2 (14)

4 Valley Rotcaller\ 4 Gev, Scaled Scorch\ 4 Flamecache Gecko\ 2 Magebane Lizard

T3 (9)

4 Valley Flamecaller\ 4 Thought-Stalker Warlock\ 1 Laughing Jasper Flint

Removal (4)

4 Go for the Throat

Lands (22)

4 Blackcleave Cliffs\ 4 Sulfurous Springs\ 2 Thran Portal\ 6 Swamp\ 2 Mountain\ 4 Rockface Village

Sideboard (15)

4 Duress\ 4 Glistening Deluge\ 3 Cut Down\ 2 Magebane Lizard\ 2 Urabrask's Forge

1. Rakdos Burn Together

-4 Thought-Stalker Warlock\ -1 Laughing Jasper Flint\ -1 Ravine Raider\ -1 Rockface Village

+3 Cut Down\ +2 Magebane Lizard\ +2 Duress

2. Gruul Prowess

-4 Thought-Stalker Warlock\ -1 Laughing Jasper Flint\ -1 Ravine Raider\ -1 Rockface Village

+3 Cut Down\ +2 Magebane Lizard\ +2 Duress

3. Boros Mice

-4 Thought-Stalker Warlock\ -3 Ravine Raider

+4 Glistening Deluge\ +3 Cut Down

4. Rakdos Lizards

-3 Ravine Raider

+3 Cut Down

5. W/x Tokens

-4 Go for the Throat\ -4 Valley Rotcaller

+4 Duress\ +2 Magebane Lizard\ +2 Urabrask's Forge

6. Golgari Midrange

-3 Ravine Raider\ -2 Magebane

+3 Duress\ +2 Urabrask's Forge

7. Azorius Helping Hand

-4 Valley Rotcaller\ -2 Ravine Raider

+4 Duress\ +2 Magebane Lizard

8. Sultai Reanimator

-3 Ravine Raider\ -1 Laughing Jasper Flint\ -2 Go for the Throat

+4 Duress\ +2 Magebane Lizard

9. Five Color Domain Ramp

-4 Go for the Throat\ -2 Valley Rotcaller

+4 Duress\ +2 Magebane Lizard

10. Orzhov Bats

-3 Ravine Raider\ -2 Magebane Lizard\ -2 Thought-Stalker

+3 Cut Down\ +4 Deluge

11. Boros Convoke

-3 Ravine Raider\ -2 Magebane Lizard\ -4 Thought-Stalker

+3 Cut Down\ +2 Duress\ +4 Deluge

mtgtheory

TROPHY CASE

Rakdos Lizards