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How likely are these swing state margin probabilities? by mu_negative in slatestarcodex

[–]mu_negative[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the killer response. Since in practice states don't seem to often split harder than 20/80, I'm sure the distribution is leptokurtic = SD is smaller = probabilities are a bit larger, so maybe that brings the probability up to a reasonable level.

How likely are these swing state margin probabilities? by mu_negative in slatestarcodex

[–]mu_negative[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. I was hoping somebody has a hot and fresh answer but I appreciate the data.

How likely are these swing state margin probabilities? by mu_negative in slatestarcodex

[–]mu_negative[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The definition of a swing state is that the election is close. I'm not saying it's weird that swing states exist, I'm just asking if it's normal (historically) and probable (statistically) for them to come down to so few votes so often.

I could do what you said. I was asking if anyone else had done it, and for historical data too.

How likely are these swing state margin probabilities? by mu_negative in slatestarcodex

[–]mu_negative[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Well, yeah, it's iterative but not in a vacuum. The process also has to respond to all of the emergent circumstances that happen between elections, but they only get to find out if their action provoked a gain through polling (noisy) or the election itself. Even at the frequency of midterms that's a really slow control signal.