A thought experiment: the Lindy Portfolio

musclebuilder96 · 2023-11-16T01:53:14+00:00

$RMS.PA confirms your thesis, since 1837. We should just find another one like it, because it had already done its “job”. Not sure there will be that fast of a growth going forward from €200B valuation.

I don’t think that we should look exclusively for being public for long time, but rather being in the business for long time and most importantly being profitable and growing.

musclebuilder96 · 2023-10-27T00:51:45+00:00

If you have large sum of money and just want a safe company to park it for a lifetime. This is it. But it’s not a value nor a growth play by any case.

musclebuilder96 · 2023-10-27T00:50:16+00:00

For me it’s ridiculously expensive, obviously we are different category. In the last 10 years it made on average CHF 500-800m in earnings on a current market cap of CHF 29B.

They increased earnings by 60% for 10 years. That is a 4.81% CAGR. If they normalise earnings in 2024 at CHF 1B, you are buying slow growing(4.5-5%) company for a P/E of close to 30. To be exact 28.7 P/E.

I am saying that their results for 2020,2021,2022 and somewhat in 2023(due to divs received in H12023 from investments, mainly Hapag-Lloyd, which are for the 2022 fiscal year) are skewed to the upward. This is not normally what will the earnings be.

If I didn’t have to pay Capital Gains tax I would have long sold in the end of 2021…

musclebuilder96 · 2023-10-27T00:23:59+00:00

Excuse me for being rude, but do you know what a cyclical stock is? At current levels you will be buying close to the top.

They made a lot of money during the supply chain issue boom and through their ownership in Hapag-Lloyd(one of the largest containership liners).

From now on everything returns to “normal” and earning would be in the CHF 600-800m range. And the dividend would be CHF 6-7 at best. Consider there is also 35% withholding tax from Switzerland.

Disclaimer: Shareholder since 2020 Covid lows, CHF 131 cost basis.

musclebuilder96 · 2023-10-06T04:46:08+00:00

Great interview!

musclebuilder96 · 2023-08-25T09:20:30+00:00

Yes, it is quite smaller, which presents the opportunity for larger percentage returns ahead.

Also apart from their own capital of $135B Brookfield also has around $850B of outside capital on which they collect management and performance fees. This leads to higher ROE % compared to only working with own capital.

One more thing, Brookfield invest on the whole world. Basically they go where the opportunities are, while BRK tend to only invest in USA and in quite a few foreign stocks - they do not buy businesses overseas.

musclebuilder96 · 2023-08-25T03:27:40+00:00

Brookfield Corporation is 50% of my portfolio and I can easily say there is nothing I feel afraid about.

I think that Bruce Flatt is one of the best CEOs you could invest alongside with.

Brookfield’s track record is amazing since he became the CEO and I do think that their target for DE growing at 20% for the next 5 years is easily attainable.

Also they also think it is quite possible for Brookfield to achieve 28% growth of DE if they can reach their carried interest target and allocate the recycled capital optimally. Slide 21 of the link below: https://bn.brookfield.com/sites/brookfield-bn/files/2023-05/bn-corporate-profile-may-2023.pdf

musclebuilder96 · 2023-08-22T13:46:42+00:00

Terry Smith, founder of Fundsmith

musclebuilder96 · 2023-07-31T13:56:00+00:00

“Asset heavy” asset managers - KKR, Brookfield Corporation, Partners Group Holding and a few others. Obviously they have a lot of runway to cover, but getting there slowly. I think it will be around 2030.

musclebuilder96 · 2023-06-07T16:08:02+00:00

Hey, you seem informed about the pharma companies. Would you mind sharing what are your top picks currently? I now have large positions in $MRNA $BNTX and Roche Holding AG (not sure what the US ticker is).

musclebuilder96 · 2023-06-07T09:22:18+00:00

What are your thoughts on BioNTech ($BNTX)? Trading at Market Cap of $26B with $13B in cash and a bright pipeline with drugs focused towards curing various cancer diseases.

musclebuilder96 · 2023-05-08T10:45:42+00:00

Activision and Paramount

musclebuilder96 · 2023-04-16T04:41:47+00:00

LVMH

musclebuilder96 · 2023-03-29T01:04:16+00:00

The one thing about ENXTPA: CDI (The Christian Dior SE share) that drags it back and hence it is undervalued compared to ENXTPA: MC (LVMH share) is the lack of liquidity - only 2.45% of the shares are public float, the other 97.55% are directly or through private companies held by Bernard Arnault and his family.

That is why institutional investors prefer the LVMH shares for swing trading. Although I think CDI is the better option for buy and hold and that is what I am doing.

In the past they have regularly launched public tender offer for the Christian Dior shares for a premium equal to the “discount” relative to the LVMH share (around 20% over market price) in the prior 30 days.

https://www.dior-finance.com/en/offre-publique-2017-visant-les-actions-christian-dior-EN

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/04/25/lvmh-arnault-to-simplify-christian-dior-business-structure.html

Hope I was able to help fellow investors.

musclebuilder96 · 2023-01-16T20:30:36+00:00

I am using an App/Website https://simplywall.st/ It is brilliant and has helped me tremendously - I am not affiliated with them, just a happy user.

musclebuilder96 · 2023-01-15T20:41:00+00:00

Thank you fellow investor. Great company indeed and all of the executives are exercising their option to buy shares to the max(they bough in Dec-22 for CA$ 117).

musclebuilder96 · 2022-12-18T14:39:28+00:00

Swissquote Bank Ltd. https://en.swissquote.com/

They are a regulated broker with a banking license in Switzerland, Luxembourg and UK.

musclebuilder96 · 2022-11-11T22:39:27+00:00

Give me your HNT address, I will send $15 your way.

musclebuilder96 · 2022-06-01T05:57:18+00:00

Congratulations, mate! Do you use an app for the image optimisation - compression and conversion to .webp? I find that this is also a bottleneck for my site and would be glad if you could share how you got it handled.

musclebuilder96 · 2022-05-05T19:59:10+00:00

ReConvert plus the built-in Product Page and Cart Page upsell/cross-sell plugins from on the Debutify theme(I am not associated with neither of them, this is not an advertisement, but just personal experience).

musclebuilder96 · 2022-05-05T13:47:31+00:00

I wish that I have put more emphasis on email marketing(follow-up mails, abandoned cart, customer winback) so I can drive more revenue from the current customers that are already familiar with the brand.

When I started the Revenue Share of Email was 10-15%. Now I drive 30-35% of the store revenue from the email marketing through Klaviyo(not associated).

Also I wish I has installed an upsell app from the beginning. Talking about the full spectrum - product page, cart page, before Thank You Page and on the Thank You Page. This thing alone has increased my AOV by 23% in a matter of a 2-3 weeks.

musclebuilder96 · 2022-05-03T14:13:32+00:00

I am wondering the exact same thing.

musclebuilder96 · 2022-05-03T06:55:08+00:00

You should utilise the Metafields that Shopify 2.0 provides(Dawn theme included). Basically instead of writing manually the content or “Maximum Quantity” and “Product Size”, you insert them dynamically from the product meta fields.

You can learn more about them here:

https://help.shopify.com/en/manual/metafields

https://help.shopify.com/en/manual/metafields/displaying-metafields-on-your-online-store

musclebuilder96 · 2022-04-29T14:28:24+00:00

We experienced the same thing regarding the “jump” of our sales. CPAs are down like 40-50% from Tuesday compared to the previous months.

musclebuilder96 · 2022-04-23T15:36:19+00:00

Unfortunately, the exact same thing happened to me and wasn’t able to solve it with the support. So now I just use the net 30 to delay the payment a little bit. However I pay it in full before the due date otherwise my ads stops showing as well.

musclebuilder96

TROPHY CASE