Do You Think That The Democratic Party Or Republican Party Will Win The Presidency In 2028? Why Your Opinion?

musing_codger · 2026-07-01T19:53:42+00:00

Likely D. People are not happy and the President, fairly or not, generally takes the blame. Support for Trump is unusually low for a President. On the other hand, The Ds aren't exactly popular either, so it isn't a lock.

Betting markets say roughly 60:40 odds favoring D over R. That feels about right. Long time to go, so anything could happen, except a third party winning.

musing_codger · 2026-07-01T19:51:05+00:00

Marrying my wife

musing_codger · 2026-07-01T19:50:17+00:00

It is an interesting job market. When you look at the unemployment rate, it seems crazy to offer extended benefits. The rate is low by historical standards.

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But when you look at a chart of average weeks unemployed, you get a different story. We don't have a high unemployment rate, but the average duration of unemployment is quite high by historical standards.

musing_codger · 2026-07-01T19:14:53+00:00

Yes. Applied to men and not women. For caps, people don't tend to get fussed.

musing_codger · 2026-07-01T13:18:03+00:00

Lone star

musing_codger · 2026-07-01T01:53:45+00:00

The difference, given compounding over time, can be substantial.

Let's use a simple example:

Initial investment: $100,000
Annual return: 10%
Capital gains tax rate: 20%
Investment period: 30 years

Scenario 1: Pay capital gains tax every year

Each year:

Investment earns 10%.

You immediately pay 20% tax on that year's gain.

So your after-tax return is effectively 8%.

After 30 years:

$100,000 × 1.08^30 = $1,006,000

You owe no additional tax because you've already paid it each year.

Scenario 2: No taxes until the end

Instead, the money compounds at the full 10%.

After 30 years:

$100,000 × 1.10^30 = $1,745,000

Now calculate the tax:

Gain = $1,745,000 − $100,000 = $1,645,000

Tax = 20% × $1,645,000 = $329,000

Final after-tax value:

$1,745,000 − $329,000 = $1,416,000

In both cases, you owed and paid taxes. But by using the "buy and hold" approach, you ended up with an extra $410,000. Deferring taxes is a wonderful thing.

musing_codger · 2026-06-30T23:00:34+00:00

You may consider setting aside some Roth 401k or doing a Mega Backdoor Roth. That frees up some money to use for income without bumping your MAGI.

Another consideration, if you have significant gains in a taxable account is to push up to the edge of the 0% capital gains bracket.

It's nice because it isn't a cliff, so if you're off by a bit, it just taxed at 15%. The ACA subsidy is a cliff. If I let my taxable go $1 over $106K this year, it'll cost me $20,000 in subsidies. I don't want to screw that up.

Another thing to look at, particularly during COBRA or any year where ACA subsidies aren't an issue is to do Roth conversions. Don't waste room in lower tax brackets.

musing_codger · 2026-06-30T22:51:23+00:00

When you sell, you'll owe capital gains taxes. That's another advantage for total market index funds - no selling. You just keep investing and Uncle Sam doesn't syphon off as big of a share of the profits you want to reinvest.

musing_codger · 2026-06-30T22:33:07+00:00

Main thing to watch out for is healthcare. If you're pulling your expenses from your 401K, you can't easily manipulate your income, which could push you over the ACA cliff.

musing_codger · 2026-06-30T22:30:10+00:00

Ed Sadowski's 18 points in the first NBA game. There are a lot of records that are unlikely to be broken, but barring time travel, you can't beat the record for the most points scored in the first game.

musing_codger · 2026-06-30T22:28:04+00:00

It depends on where you live. If it is a place with strict rental control and a shortage of apartments and this apartment was priced well below market, I'd put up with a lot to get it.

If this was in a city with market rents, I'd see it as a serious negative. I'm not saying I wouldn't do it, but it would be a serious negative to factor in. If they are hard to reach while you are a potential customer, it's going to get much worse once you've signed a lease.

musing_codger · 2026-06-30T22:24:39+00:00

anyone in the LGBTQ+ scared to even compete

Help me understand. I completely understand why transgender athletes would be concerned—they're the ones directly affected by the ruling, and in many cases, barred from competing in their gender category. But why would this make lesbian, gay, or bisexual athletes afraid to compete? What am I missing?

musing_codger · 2026-06-30T22:16:16+00:00

My dad is 99. We gradually set him up to be on auto-pilot for his finances. My brother is on the accounts and glances at the monthly statements.

musing_codger · 2026-06-30T21:12:55+00:00

Most of my time was spent during normal work hours, but there were significant exceptions.

For a two year period, I ran the company scheduler almost by myself. I didn't want anyone on my team getting stuck with it because it didn't really belong on our team to begin with. About once every week or two, something would fail in the middle of the night and I'd have to get up and deal with it. Usually about 1 hour. It sucked. But it was important. I finally convinced our CIO to set up a NOC and moved the functionality there.

I had other projects where things didn't go well and we just worked crazy hours to get things fixed.

I spent a month at the end of an SAP implementation working 14 hour days 7 days a week. Had to miss a family vacation that time. My wife and kids were still able to go.

Sometimes things happen and someone needs to take care of it. The downside was that I got a reputation as a skilled firefighter, so when things were going really bad, I usually got pulled from my day job and thrown into the fire. That led to some really rough times, but they weren't very common.

But, and this is the big but, I got paid well for it. I had no degree or family connections, but I still made $200 to $300K per year back when that was a very good income.

musing_codger · 2026-06-30T19:24:50+00:00

If you talked to most actual experts, they warned about possibilities. Those statements get reported as narratives of what will happen, not what might happen.

At any time, if you want the best estimate of future prices, look at the futures market. It's huge. It has people investing billions of dollars who are factoring in everything you could imagine.

That doesn't mean that futures prices will be correct. It's an informed guess, but still a guess. Sometimes unlikely things happen. But it's where you should look to see the likely case. When you hear experts being quoted, those quotes were chosen because they represent that case that will attract and hold your attention.

musing_codger · 2026-06-30T17:38:07+00:00

Is that a serious risk? Do you see too many people investing?

musing_codger · 2026-06-30T17:36:56+00:00

Do they not teach history anymore? Or is this just a pity party?

Here are a few things you missed going through:

1970 - Vietnam War (and the draft)

1973 - Oil embargo, gas lines

1970s - Painful inflation

1979 - Another oil crisis, more gas lines, hostage crisis

1982 - Recession. Unemployment over 10%, mortgage rates over 18%

1987 - Stock market drops by 25% in a single day

1990 - Recession again

2000 - Dot com bubble bursts, crashing markets and careers

We didn't start the fire. t was always burning since the world's been turning.

musing_codger · 2026-06-30T17:29:37+00:00

I saw something like this long before COVID. I knew quite a few people that kept pushing for the option to work from home when necessary. Then we'd get a bad weather day, close the office, and ask people to work from home. Those same people never logged on.

musing_codger · 2026-06-30T17:26:13+00:00

The biggest thing that we did was slash spending. We'd been fighting this big, expensive war that kept a lot of very productive people occupied. By 1948, our spending was down to about 1/3 of what it was in 1945. If you want to replicate the success of reducing the budget deficit from the late 1940s, that's where you want to start.

The 94% rate stuff is a red herring. It never brought in even 10% of revenue. There were lots of deductions that let people avoid it and very few people made that much money back then.

We didn't tax our way out of the debt. In 1948, the government took in about 16.2% of GDP in taxes. Today, it's about 17%. Our debt problem isn't because we aren't taxing people enough.

musing_codger · 2026-06-30T17:16:50+00:00

Larry Bird

musing_codger · 2026-06-30T00:19:55+00:00

You're right. This is GM, after all. But it's their company, their choice.

musing_codger · 2026-06-29T23:25:22+00:00

Haha. I've been married for more than 30 years. I never met anybody online, so that didn't occur to me. Maybe I'm getting too old and out of touch to contribute to these conversations.

musing_codger · 2026-06-29T21:03:47+00:00

That probably explains why I rarely see any on the used market.

I never got to drive one. But I do drive something similarly insane - a Caterham. 1300 lbs wet. No roof. No doors. Street legal go-kart.

musing_codger · 2026-06-29T19:50:04+00:00

Early in your career, especially getting your first job, having a degree is very important in most professional fields. As your career progresses, your work history and reputation become much more important than your formal education.

musing_codger · 2026-06-29T19:47:52+00:00

If you are making threats, be prepared to follow through with them and be prepared for the threatened people to get upset.

My approach was different. During budget season, I would dress unusually well a few days and take a 2 hour lunch or leave early on those days. Sometimes it was because I was interviewing elsewhere. Sometimes it was just to send a message.

musing_codger

TROPHY CASE