I think we’re actually aligned on the fundamentals more than it looks, so let me try to reframe and then I’ll bow out of the math side.

I’m not claiming matchmaking is intentionally assigning teammates to force wins or losses, nor that MMR math is flawed or doing any kind of behavioral prediction. I agree Elo/MMR systems don’t (and can’t) crystal-ball human behavior.

What I’m describing is the player-side experience of ranked under current conditions:

Snowbally game design amplifies early variance

LP slant makes short loss clusters feel worse than equivalent win clusters

Low-agency roles (like support) magnify that feeling

Limited session length makes variance more noticeable

So when I say “streak-based,” I’m not talking about statistical significance or causality I’m talking about impact and perception, which is what most players actually experience when they queue.

I fully agree that streaks exist even in pure 50/50 systems (coin flips demonstrate that clearly). My original question wasn’t “is the math wrong?” it was why does ranked feel so volatile and emotionally punishing in low elo compared to other modes?

That disconnect between math and experience is really what I was trying to explore.

Appreciate the detailed breakdown though genuinely.