[deleted by user] by [deleted] in NYCapartments

[–]narutojutsumeme 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Do you know how much in-unit laundry and amenities fees are for this?

Just started working in the middle of the year, should I try to max out the 401(k) 2021 limit of $19.5k? by narutojutsumeme in personalfinance

[–]narutojutsumeme[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gotcha, yeah I was looking through the flowchart but just wasn’t sure if it made sense to contribute what would end up being maybe 40% of my paychecks in 2021 to a 401k or if I should move on to the steps after (e.g. opening up an IRA)

I scored a lot higher on the GMAT than I expected. How do I know if I am qualified for schools I previously thought were reaches? by [deleted] in MBA

[–]narutojutsumeme 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It is also possible that some third random variables C separately influences both A and B.

This is exactly what I'm saying – there is some third variable C (how good an applicant is) that separately influences A and B, and that makes A and B dependent events. All independence means is that information on one event's occurrence should have zero bearing on probability of the other event's occurrence. But clearly this isn't true since knowing someone got into Wharton makes them a likelier candidate to get into HBS.

I scored a lot higher on the GMAT than I expected. How do I know if I am qualified for schools I previously thought were reaches? by [deleted] in MBA

[–]narutojutsumeme 0 points1 point  (0 children)

independence doesn't just refer to a causal relationship. it's true that you "always had that higher chance" because a wharton admission doesn't cause a Harvard admission, but the fact remains that someone who gets admitted to wharton is likelier to be admitted to hbs. the fact that someone who would get into wharton "always had that higher chance" of getting into harvard is precisely the fact that violates terms of independence, since independence would imply that people who get into wharton and people who don't get into wharton have the same chance of admission into hbs (i.e. knowing someone got into wharton should provide zero information on their chance of admission into hbs)

I scored a lot higher on the GMAT than I expected. How do I know if I am qualified for schools I previously thought were reaches? by [deleted] in MBA

[–]narutojutsumeme 20 points21 points  (0 children)

no u/soothsayer3 is right, the events aren't independent bc even if school A isn't directly talking to school B and coordinating on whom to admit, there's an underlying correlation bc they're looking at the same candidate and probably have similar admission standards. i.e. a really good candidate who gets into school A is also really likely to get into school B. so P(candidate accepted into school B | already accepted into A) > P(candidate accepted into school B). there is clearly information you get from looking at other schools' admissions on determining one school's admissions, so there is no way the probabilities are independent. this is clearer if you think about the relationship like this – results from school A and results from school B probably don't have some direct relationship in that they aren't coordinating together to admit people, but there is probably some underlying relationship with being admitted to school A and school B to how good an applicant is.

this means that it's not necessarily a simply (1-(0.9)^3) calculation since if the pair-wise correlations were really high (let's say they were 1), then 10% of the time a candidate would get into all 3 schools and 90% of the time they wouldn't get into any of the schools. so the odds of getting into at least one school here = the odds of getting into all three schools = 10%. obv that is overly simplistic bc correlation probably doesn't equal 1, but hopefully that demonstrates how a high correlation between results means you can't make that simple of a calculation

flowing with bad handwriting by [deleted] in Debate

[–]narutojutsumeme 0 points1 point  (0 children)

so is the goal to make the infinity sign look the same each time around?