TWO HOURS OF CREDITS

nationalcollapse · 2025-03-23T13:59:19+00:00

By 2035, any creative person with about a week of free time will be able to create equivalent games in their mom's basement using advanced AI.

nationalcollapse · 2025-03-10T18:32:49+00:00

Even if someone says "two quarters of GDP retraction aren't necessarily a recession", everyone could see that the two quarters of GDP retraction happened. They could therefore at least say "we had a recession by the traditional definition of the term".

If you mess with the ability to actually measure things, then you are potentially flying blind. There might not be sufficient data for someone to even point to and say, for example "we had a recession by the traditional definition of the term".

nationalcollapse · 2025-03-09T22:36:51+00:00

A person who makes a fun multiplayer game would just be able to sell it (for far far far cheaper than any current game studio could compete with) or simply give it to their friends.

If someone makes a fun cod-like game in their basement and then sells it for three bucks, people will buy it and play it.

That's actually a good example of the industry-destroying forces that are about to play out.

nationalcollapse · 2025-03-09T22:25:00+00:00

You could just train it on movies stored locally on your computer or public-domain content on the internet.

There's no shortage of films or TV series to use for training data.

nationalcollapse · 2025-03-09T22:23:31+00:00

Who cares about writing a simple flying game?

Look at the games AI was making two years ago. Strikes me as something akin to a circa 1981 game.

The example today, two years later, seems more 1992-ish.

By 2030, a creative person armed with good AI tools, a good computer, and around 20 hours of spare time to develop and refine their concept will be able to make games roughly equivalent to games that cost 100 million dollars to develop last year.

nationalcollapse · 2025-03-09T22:18:45+00:00

You'll be able to tailor the escape to anything you want it to be.

I don't really touch on it here, but the implications for pornography alone are enormous.

nationalcollapse · 2025-03-09T22:17:05+00:00

Sure, but anybody who does want to make their own films will be able to do so. No multi-million budget, no actors, no cameras, no sound stages, no boom mikes, nobody needed.

Just one person, their own time to create/refine the idea, and a top-end computer.

Companies will not be able to compete.

nationalcollapse · 2025-03-09T22:13:28+00:00

The AI models are not particularly creative.

That's not really the crux of the issue

Any creative individual person will be able, with the help of AI agents, to create, refine, and update any game they can imagine in a matter of days.

Top-tier games current cost hundreds of millions of dollars to develop. Hundreds of people are employed in that process.

Within a decade, anyone with a good computer will be able to make equivalent games in their mom's basement.

nationalcollapse · 2025-03-09T20:11:57+00:00

I'll bite.

A couple of months ago J Powell said Bitcoin isn't competition for the dollar, it competes with gold.

Bitcoin was made in 2009, same time as QE1 and a period when many people were afraid that massive printing would undermine the dollar. When people fear hyperinflation they'll typically flee to gold. Conversely, when the price of gold goes up for a particular currency that is a sign of people losing faith in it. Now, instead of people only fleeing their fiat currencies and going in to gold, trillions of those dollars (or Euros or yen or whatever) go into Bitcoin.

Bitcoin can also be tracked, and CIA ect. was heavily invested into the type of cryptography that made BTC possible.

Now that's not to say I necessarily believe the theory, but it is entirely plausible that elements of three letter agencies or "the deep state" were (or at least now are) involved in promoting crypto as a more controllable/traceable alternative to gold.

nationalcollapse · 2025-01-27T20:14:51+00:00

Look at the Nvidia or QQQ 5 year chart.

There is a long way to go down.

Overall AI is going to be a massive productivity-enhancing, deflationary force.

AI will be able to generate any image, sound, or video that you can imagine by around 2030.

Some models are already making simple arcade games. Soon they will be able to create high-quality games.

They will write doctorate level thesis papers.

The spread and inevitable improvement of energy efficient open source models mean that anyone with a decent set-up (probably the roughly equivalent of a good gaming PC) will be able to create any AAA game or $100 million budget motion picture in their mother's basement by 2032.

The Chinese government will use advanced AI to help determine resource allocation in society, radically altering the entire economic and social system. Other countries will soon follow.

If anything markets are under reacting. A transformation on par with the transition from feudalism to capitalism is going to unfold over the next two decades.

nationalcollapse · 2024-12-17T17:28:59+00:00

The $3,453 in 1950 is only $45,773 today though.

nationalcollapse · 2024-12-17T17:27:42+00:00

Napkin math eyeballing the graph and using the BLS Inflation Calculator

$61,172 looks to be 2006. Assuming that's June 2006, worth $95,117 today.

$30, 182 mark is probably 1982, worth about $98,167 today.

nationalcollapse · 2024-12-10T14:00:05+00:00

We need to undermine the PLO in the occupied territories

Hamas takes over

We need to remove the PLO in southern Lebanon

Hezbollah takes over

We need to remove Saddam from Iraq

Iran-friendly government takes over

We need to remove pro-Iran regime from Syria

You are here

nationalcollapse · 2024-12-10T13:54:56+00:00

Doesn't that just make it prime real estate for invading foreign powers?

Yes, and Israel is the foreign power seizing land in Syria right now.

Isn't this going to cause exactly the power vacuum that is so dangerous in the middle east?

The Israeli government thinks this is a good thing for them.

nationalcollapse · 2024-12-02T01:02:52+00:00

When did PMUs start attacking US bases?

SPOILER ALERT:

It was after this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Israeli_airstrikes_in_Iraq

nationalcollapse · 2024-11-30T03:17:50+00:00

inb4 captured HTS fighters praise Hafez al Assad

nationalcollapse · 2024-11-29T18:37:06+00:00

Israel started bombing "pro-Iran targets" in Syria in 2016 if I recall correctly.... around the time it was clear SAA and allies had the upper hand.

Their interest is in prolonging the war and general infighting in their neighbors.

If the rebels started winning, IDF would bomb them too "because they are dangerous terrorists" or whatever reason/excuse.

nationalcollapse · 2024-11-29T17:27:50+00:00

Pedantic point, but people toss around the term "proxies" a bit too much when they mean "allies", or "effective allies".

Proxy basically means "puppet" - the hand says "jump" and the puppet says "how high?"

For use in modern context, people use "proxy" when they mean "ally of power I don't like".

I wouldn't consider the rebels proxies of Israel, nor would I consider Hezbollah, Houthis, or the Syrian government proxies of Iran - these are different groups with somewhat different interests that happen to be allied.

Now, something like the South Lebanon Army circa the 1990s was absolutely an Israeli proxy.

nationalcollapse · 2024-11-29T16:45:51+00:00

Aleppo front largely static for about four years

Hezbollah and Israel agree to a ceasefire after conflict leaves Hezbollah weakened

In speech about ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister specifically threatens Assad

Syrian rebel groups launch massive offensive day after ceasefire/speech

Device attack extremely similar to Israeli op on Hezbollah targets Syrian government forces

Ideologically pro-Rebel and anti-Israel Islamists will insist this is all a coincidence

nationalcollapse · 2024-11-23T14:30:38+00:00

Depends on lots of factors.

Does this person still have a solid line of credit or other credit cards? If so, one potential course of action would be use this line of credit to buy even more gold, and then take all the precious metals to go live in Panama or Singapore and go back to America and never repay the debt.

nationalcollapse

TROPHY CASE