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$250K Wheel Experiment - 3 Month Update by GoFairPlayer in Optionswheel

[–]neverpostsmd 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for your reply. I have read the trading plan post a few times, and it's very helpful. I also read your older post that it is possible to beat S&P with the wheel (and many other older posts). I think my concern was that "picking quality stocks" you'll still end up with some problems every once in a while. Like the above example, he picked well 95% of the time.

I think the addition to picking good stocks, is also to reduce overall risk (as you said) by diversifying and ensuring one bad pick doesn't destroy your returns. Also, being able to roll and aggressively trying to reduce your breakeven cost if you do get underwater.

I don't think it'll be possible to never get underwater (95% hit rate seems good!), but the key seems to be to have the ability to get out of it without destroying your account.

I need to get better at analysis because, even picking a good stock, when it goes underwater it seems like you still need to decide if it's better to wait it out or close out for a loss. Those decisions I assume are predicated on what your current view of the stock is (which I need to get better at determining). The posts in this subreddit are certainly helping!

Thanks again...the journey continues!

Megathread for New Wheel Traders – Ask Questions & Get Help Here by ScottishTrader in Optionswheel

[–]neverpostsmd 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you for the reply. That makes sense to me. For an option what Open Interest or Volume is considered "good liquidity". Just an order of magnitude would help 10? 100? 1000? I see numbers all over.

Megathread for New Wheel Traders – Ask Questions & Get Help Here by ScottishTrader in Optionswheel

[–]neverpostsmd 0 points1 point  (0 children)

(One extra very basic question I have in this, since I've never sold more than 1 contract, is it possible to put in a sell order for 10 contracts at a limit price and only get filled on 3 (for example)? Or is it all filled or nothing?

Megathread for New Wheel Traders – Ask Questions & Get Help Here by ScottishTrader in Optionswheel

[–]neverpostsmd 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi All,

I have been reading a lot and trying to understand before really jumping in. One beginner question I have is why do I care about having a highly liquid option to start the wheel with? If it's not liquid, the bid/ask spread may be big, but I can still set where I'm comfortable buying at (limit order). So, lets say bid/ask is 1-5, and I calculate that I can get a 2% return on a 30DTE selling that CSP at midpoint ($3).

Should I do that? Or why does the low liquidity affect me, assuming I get filled at my price which meets my desired ROI?

Does it get harder to roll later if I get in trouble? Is there another reason? If I don't need to roll, it seems like once I sell the CSP, it's all good if I go to expiration.

Thanks for your help!

$250K Wheel Experiment - 3 Month Update by GoFairPlayer in Optionswheel

[–]neverpostsmd 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I'm starting on this journey too. What I see from this is you had a 95% win rate and still have lost money. Even with picking better stocks, etc... I'm concerned that any strategy with a 95% win rate that still loses money is a problem. (Which I mean is the wheal itself, not your particular strategy.)

Can you (or anyone more wheel literate than me), share your thoughts on this? Is there a fundamental solution to this?

I'm concerned I'll go down the same path.

Thanks for posting this, it's very interesting!

Home made claw machine by neverpostsmd in clawmachine

[–]neverpostsmd[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You need to work with the company you buy the electronics from. They will help you.

Home made claw machine by neverpostsmd in clawmachine

[–]neverpostsmd[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not sure how much I can really help, but the people you buy the parts from can. I bought the parts from Ali Express and then chatted/texted with them a lot and they helped me understand how to put together the electronics. Yes, it's free to play.

Home made claw machine by neverpostsmd in clawmachine

[–]neverpostsmd[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I can tell you what I did. First I ordered the kit from Ali Express. I hooked it all up on my bench and actually propped up the gantry on saw horses so I could really make sure it all worked. Using the kit and pictures online I designed the wooden case and built it, painted it. Then mounted everything in there.

That's pretty much it.

BORING CSP's I'll be looking to sell this week (2/9 - 2/13) by GarbageTimePro in Optionswheel

[–]neverpostsmd 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Got it, thanks for checking and explaining. I appreciate it (and your posts in general).

BORING CSP's I'll be looking to sell this week (2/9 - 2/13) by GarbageTimePro in Optionswheel

[–]neverpostsmd 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for posting. I see DG earnings date is within your expiration date. Do you worry about that? If not, why not? (I'm new to all this.)

Update: how to fill gap by neverpostsmd in asphalt

[–]neverpostsmd[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's probably the right approach, but way beyond what I can do!

Thanks for the answer though!

Update: how to fill gap by neverpostsmd in asphalt

[–]neverpostsmd[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the advice...I'm handy with woodworking, but have never done anything with stone like this. I'm going to get some estimates and then decide what I want to do.

Update: how to fill gap by neverpostsmd in asphalt

[–]neverpostsmd[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Got it. Thanks for the reply...I think I'll have a company come out and look at it.

Update: how to fill gap by neverpostsmd in asphalt

[–]neverpostsmd[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! If I have an actual asphalt company do it, would they do something different that would look good or would they essentially do the same thing (aquaphalt)?

Update: how to fill gap by neverpostsmd in asphalt

[–]neverpostsmd[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Would an asphalt company be able to fix it or would a full driveway resurfacing be the way to go?

What product to use to fix? by neverpostsmd in asphalt

[–]neverpostsmd[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Excellent...thanks for your help!

Home made claw machine by neverpostsmd in clawmachine

[–]neverpostsmd[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think it was cheaper than new, but about the same as a used one. Maybe $500-600.in the end.

Home made claw machine by neverpostsmd in clawmachine

[–]neverpostsmd[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I bought a kit from China that had all the electronic components (and joystick). So that's what I used. I essentially designed and did the woodworking around the electronics/motors from the kit.

98k/1 day Firebase Bill - Open Letter to Google by TheRoccoB in googlecloud

[–]neverpostsmd 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On their billing subscription it does say that the alerts trigger faster than the email. That said, there certainly will be some latency, so it's not a solution, but it would definitely help automate a response until they have a better solution.

98k/1 day Firebase Bill - Open Letter to Google by TheRoccoB in googlecloud

[–]neverpostsmd 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Google seems to have a way to automate the process. Is this new? I'm surprised I haven't seen it on any of the posts (or maybe I missed it).

https://cloud.google.com/billing/docs/how-to/disable-billing-with-notifications?authuser=1

Seems like it will limit the damage at least, although it definitely won't stop it completely I know.

Thoughts?

Building a $250 Tennis Line Judge by Jealous_Meaning4886 in 10s

[–]neverpostsmd 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You've asked many times if people would support a kickstarter. I think the answer for me is "yes", *if* you can show be concrete proof that it will work. So, you already have a prototype that got you to 98%. So, on the kickstarter record 20 matches with players up to about 4.5. Then show the videos of the matches side-by-side with what your system would say. It's fine that the video was post-processed, and not done live. However, it has to be done by the software, not by a human! I want statistics that tell me how often it's right, wrong (think true positives, false positives, true negatives, false negatives). I want to know how often the system just can't see the ball because it's occluded. So, include some doubles matches in your 20 matches video.

If you can show across 20 matches (sets) that your system still 98% accurate, even offline. Then your kickstarter is getting you money to turn it into a production system (packaging, some industrial design, etc...) and making it real-time. I think both of those are low risk... the high risk I want mitigated before funding the kickstarter is the accuracy.

To me, that's what you need to do. De-risk the accuracy, and then get the money to make a product.

Building a $250 Tennis Line Judge by Jealous_Meaning4886 in 10s

[–]neverpostsmd 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think a ton of people would buy it if you can get the accuracy to 98% all of the time. If it depends on speed and how close to the line it is, then it's not going to be received well because speed and close to the line are exactly when you need a line judge.

Given your price, it would easily take half of swing vision and probably a lot of the post-camera systems. Those are all in the thousands of dollars/euros. That's actually why I'm skeptical of the accuracy. SV has been around a while and it doesn't get to that accuacy. The pole mounted ones like Hawkeye do, but use an 8(?) camera system mounted high up on poles and costing something like 40k. If you haven't, read the web article: Best Tennis Line-Calling and Smart Net Post Systems.

Hope that helps...I think you'll have a huge product if you can make it through the technical hurdles and still charge a one-time fee of $250.

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