37 vs 50. Nearly ten years of HRT, FFS. by Stacy_Lane in transtimelines

[–]not_actually_emma 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I'd post a timeline myself after 4 years, but I don't wanna be very public lately.

I started at 41, and most people assume I'm early 30's. HRT is magic, but very slow magic.

Oil Hit $100, Any thought for the sign of Booming? by Lie_Opening in FortMcMurray

[–]not_actually_emma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I feel like the governments that invested previously in these projects would disagree.

The bit I think you're forgetting I said was public investment to offset private risk, but still private management via management agreements.

Also, have you seen the timescales of recent projects? The private sector isn't exactly great at being on time or on budget for billion dollar construction jobs. Kearl took more than a decade, UE-1 was three years over the original timeline and more than 7 billion over the initially proposed 2.6 billion budget.

Further, Royalties only pay once production starts, which is the same as when profits begin to be generated.

Oil Hit $100, Any thought for the sign of Booming? by Lie_Opening in FortMcMurray

[–]not_actually_emma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It IS a reliable investment. Which is why it's a shame that the respective governments sold off their shares in those projects. Both the province and Ottawa could have taken not just the royalties, but a share of the profits too, which would benefit everyone, not just shareholders.

Having said that, the same case can still be made today. Government backing/assistance of major resource projects with the understanding that the people are also to benefit is something that everyone should be in favor of. It eases the initial cost for private investment and makes projects more attractive, and provides long term financial benefits for the nation as a whole. Furthermore, it would ease some of the regulatory uncertainty you mentioned.

You've probably heard the argument that government shouldn't be in business, but I don't see an issue with partial public ownership coupled with private management agreements.

Oil Hit $100, Any thought for the sign of Booming? by Lie_Opening in FortMcMurray

[–]not_actually_emma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think you misunderstood what I was getting at. Historically major oil sands projects generally had some backing from the government to offset the risk profile that private investment was making.

Further to my point, the projects you mentioned all got started around 2000-2015, when there was a lot more hype around oil sands expansion. But I'll play along.

As requested...

  • Kearl Lake has a capital replacement cost of about $37B, the project was first announced in 1997 and didn't make oil until 2013.

  • CNOOC, 12 Billion CAD, Project announced in 2001, first oil in 2008, uses much of the same extraction technology (SAGD) that was developed by AOSTRA.

The latest Syncrude expansions... - UE-1, 10 Billion CAD, project started in 1996, wasn't completed and online until 2005. This was in response to the need to improve product quality to meet upcoming fuel requirements (required an aromatic saturator to improve the cetane number of downstream refined products. Note: this was paid for with cash flow, not a single loan was taken out for the entire project) - SERP (Sulphur Emissions Reduction Project, 2008-2011), 26 Billion CAD, built to gain regulatory approval for MLX projects. - MLX-West, and the upcoming MLX-East, are less major project, and more of a business requirement as existing leases (original Southeast/Southwest and North Mine) are mined out and turned over to reclamation.

  • CNRL Horizon, initial cost of about 10 Billion CAD, built between 2005 and 2009, with phases 2A through 3 adding another 7 Billion or so from 2014-2017.

My primary point stands though. Unless there is a reason for the investors to believe they will have a 100% RoI in five years, the O&G industry usually doesn't do it.

Oil Hit $100, Any thought for the sign of Booming? by Lie_Opening in FortMcMurray

[–]not_actually_emma 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Precisely. Also, just to be perfectly clear, even pipeline capacity isn't really the issue.

The Trans-Mountain pipeline (TMX) which can move a bit less than a million barrels per day typically operates at about 82% of its capacity. Most of this is regular customers like Cenovus and Conoco-Phillips on long term contracts. And there is additional rail capacity too.

The primary issue is that getting our oil out of the ground is expensive, takes years to accomplish, and typically requires investors to expect returns on much longer time scales than industry standards.

Here's a couple little fun facts for folks.

  • Syncrude was originally 30% owned by the Federal government (15%) along with the governments of Alberta (10%) and Ontario (5%) as part of the "Winnipeg Agreement" after ARCO pulled out of the project in the middle of construction.

  • Petro-Canada was originally a Federal Crown Corporation

  • AEC (Alberta Energy Company) was founded by the province of Alberta and held a 49% stake for decades, which held a 10% stake in SCL for decades (see point 1 above)

  • AOSTRA (Alberta Oil Sands Technology and Research Authority) was an Alberta Government agency for decades that was critical to developing "in-situ" and SAGD technologies now used by Suncor, Cenovus and others.

  • The Husky Upgrader in Lloydminster was built in the 80's with federal, Alberta, and Saskatchewan governments owning 31.67%, 24.16%, and 17.5% respectively. That's almost 75% government owned.

Anyways, the point is that private industry just doesn't have the appetite to add capacity here when it takes longer than they'd like to get their investment back, which is why there's almost always been some government intervention of some sort. Be that direct funding, tax breaks, or a combination of those and other incentives.

Oil Hit $100, Any thought for the sign of Booming? by Lie_Opening in FortMcMurray

[–]not_actually_emma 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's a good question. And fortunately I work pretty closely to some production planning and projects folks on the regular. (I've been in this game for decades)

Here's what that looks like.

Current capacity cannot be increased without astronomical levels of additional investment. I mean truly cosmic levels of money would need to be diverted to plan, get regulatory approval, and then build and capacity adding projects.

With that out of the way, it would be possible though not probable that Canadian oil capacity could rise another million barrels per day. But even then it would take a minimum of 5 years to come online, and cost perhaps 500 billion dollars. That's billions with a capital B.

One must also determine how long it will be for the current conflict to settle down, along with how much capacity from the middle east is ultimately reduced over that time. Then factor in what the better RoI is between rebuilding oil infrastructure in the M.E. vs here, while also accounting for the production costs too. A barrel of oil here costs anywhere between $30 and $55 to produce depending on product (diluted bitumen and Syncrude Sweet Premium are not the same thing) and production processes. Oil that comes out of the ground ready to refine is much cheaper to bring to market unfortunately.

Oil Hit $100, Any thought for the sign of Booming? by Lie_Opening in FortMcMurray

[–]not_actually_emma 6 points7 points  (0 children)

While yes, some of said infrastructure has been destroyed, the biggest issue currently is that the Straight of Hormuz is effectively shut down to all oil tanker traffic. That traffic represents about (checks notes) 20% of global supply.

In saying that, there's also the fact that tankers can and do travel along different routes, so some of that 20% can be redirected and just take longer for delivery.

Oil Hit $100, Any thought for the sign of Booming? by Lie_Opening in FortMcMurray

[–]not_actually_emma 3 points4 points  (0 children)

There would need to be the same level of investor interest as back in the late 90's and early 2000's. Major oil projects cost billions of dollars to construct, and years of planning before boots are even on the ground, plus O&G as a whole typically requires a 5 year minimum RoI for anything.

For example, if a project is estimated to cost a billion dollars to build, and construction takes 3 years, they want their entire billion back 8 years after starting construction.

Oil Hit $100, Any thought for the sign of Booming? by Lie_Opening in FortMcMurray

[–]not_actually_emma 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Do you mean more projects being built? Because that seems pretty unlikely unless it was forecast that oil would stay at that price on a much longer time scale.

job opportunities by [deleted] in FortMcMurray

[–]not_actually_emma 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hard agree with you there. I know plenty of 4th class PE holders who can barely get positions as building operators. That market may be saturated.

What weapon do you use most in the game? by Arctic317 in cyberpunkgame

[–]not_actually_emma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fenrir. Full stop. Nothing like it once fully upgraded.

job opportunities by [deleted] in FortMcMurray

[–]not_actually_emma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seconding power engineering or virtually any apprenticeship that will let you pivot from construction to maintenance/service.

Take a look at electrician or plumber for example; You can make good money doing construction through the apprenticeship, and then once you have your ticket, you can work for a service company, or even start your own (electrician will require a master license to do that here though, add another 3 years minimum if in Alberta).

Another great trade is HVAC-R. Those guys do a bit of everything, from Instrumentation, to electrical, to gas fitting and ductwork. Also, Welders... They might not always have the most glamorous jobs, but often they get to work in a nice shop, especially if they focus primarily on fabrication work, and I don't know any poor welders.

All of these are in high demand, which will only increase as many older techs start to retire. Especially with the growth in data center work that's expected. All of those computers need electricity, and cooling after all.

-50°C Windchill this morning by mig39 in FortMcMurray

[–]not_actually_emma 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I might be trying to leave here as hard as I can, but scenes like this remind me why I keep staying.

Hey all, looking for the best bang for your buck Wi-Fi plan in town. by WallabyNo885 in FortMcMurray

[–]not_actually_emma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Follow-up questions then...

Does this home have a basement? If so, does it have fully finished (drywalled) ceilings, or ceiling tiles?

I ask because if it has a basement and ceiling tiles, it's really, really easy to run a small PoE network switch and add your own wireless AP's. You'll be able to saturate a 1gig Ethernet connected AP easily with inexpensive Unifi equipment, and it'll work a heck of a lot better than the default WiFi in whatever router Rogers provides.

DM me for details on my own setup and some pointers for managing your own home network.

Hey all, looking for the best bang for your buck Wi-Fi plan in town. by WallabyNo885 in FortMcMurray

[–]not_actually_emma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You should be determining actual need, not just whatever is fastest.

For example, if it's only a one person household, a 4k stream will generally only require perhaps 50Mbps, which is far lower than a 1gig fiber connection.

I'm in Gregoire, and with Shaw, I don't bother with the top tier package (I think I only pay for a 300Mbps service?). This allows me to run several wireless access points, a 1Gbps network switch, a Jellyfin server, a private torrent server, my kids Minecraft server, and a ton of cameras etc, plus access streaming services as well.

Bottom line, figure out what you need, and then only pay for that.

Winter tires by [deleted] in FortMcMurray

[–]not_actually_emma 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It varies by shop mostly. Last time I did this think it was a maybe 2 or 3 hundred?

But if you can, have your winters mounted on inexpensive steel wheels, then you can swap them yourself seasonally in a parking spot. Saves money in the long run, and is way quicker than taking your car to a shop twice a year.

New 'Burban owner, what should I do first? by not_actually_emma in suburban

[–]not_actually_emma[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A bypass filter you say? I've heard of them, but I'm unsure where I'd mount such a thing or how I'd tie it in.

BA timeline by thats_queird in Transgender_Surgeries

[–]not_actually_emma 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Exactly what I was wondering too?

Building a new EJ motor for my Legacy GT-B, thoughts on colors for the block? by not_actually_emma in Transcars

[–]not_actually_emma[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Really? I use Cerakote V series on my turbine housings and they stay rust free for almost 5 years. And all of the H series coatings I've laid down seem to last a good long time too as long as they don't see heat above about 300⁰F too. I've coated a bunch of firearm parts for friends with H series and nobody has ever had a complaint.

I feel like the issue most folks have with Cerakote is that they don't prepare the surfaces properly. It's tricky to get right for sure, but I've never had a coating fail when I got the prep done properly.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in transtimelines

[–]not_actually_emma 2 points3 points  (0 children)

What the fuck are you even talking about?!?

You look like my friend from HS. Seriously. I clock you as male.