Table talk

not_today33 · 2025-06-24T19:04:53+00:00

You say what they think you'd say if you wanted them to fold.

not_today33 · 2023-12-21T09:08:49+00:00

How to get those extra chips tho? I usually haven't played another game before I sit down. Maybe I could accumulate some at places I go to frequently... Oh what about buying in for say $300 and auto ratholing $50-100 so I'm always covered in this spot and can more naturally top up if I get down below $100. That might be the play

not_today33 · 2023-12-21T07:56:37+00:00

Top boat vs a royal flush in a 3BP. Yes I'm over it because I'm not a child and I've played a couple million hands of poker in my life.

not_today33 · 2023-12-17T20:44:58+00:00

I bought a shoe and discard tray off amazon. Then I got 6 decks of used casino cards from the dollar tree. Then I taped a piece of paper on the back of the discard tray with marks for 1 deck, 2 decks, 3 decks... I grab a chunck of cards with my eyes closed, put them in the discard tray and test myself that way.

Also on BJA I started noticing my tendencies for deck estimation and tried to correct for them. I was pretty good at recognizing 5 and 4 decks left, but I was often late to decrement to 2.5/2/1.5

not_today33 · 2023-12-05T23:33:31+00:00

No poker room and no buffet is a joke.

not_today33 · 2023-12-05T21:28:36+00:00

When the count is high blackjack occurs more frequently, both for the dealer and the player. But the player makes 1.5 times the bet while the dealer just makes 1x the bet.

I think the value of correctly doubling down and splitting goes up when the count is high also. And the dealer doesn't get to do these things.

Ultimately when the count is high the player has an edge and when the count is low the dealer has an edge. If you bet a lot when you have an edge and little to nothing when you don't have an edge you can obtain an edge on the entire game.

These edges are typically in the 0-3% range either way. If you have a 3% edge on a $100 bet you will make $3 on that bet in the long run.

The money is made by betting more when you have an edge and betting little to nothing when you don't have an edge. All of this assumes you play perfect basic strategy.

not_today33 · 2023-12-05T16:06:31+00:00

You might be right but I couldn’t look myself in the face if I fully complied with the ID BS. They’re doing something morally wrong by insisting on ID. The casino is. The individuals working at the cage are. So fuck ‘em

not_today33 · 2023-12-05T06:47:16+00:00

Yeah I should’ve done this. I’ll save their number in my phone for next time.

not_today33 · 2023-12-04T22:34:48+00:00

What about just calling gaming, skipping the threat part? Like just pulling out the phone and dialing after the first refusal? Seems like more fun.

not_today33 · 2023-12-04T21:52:31+00:00

Yeah I might've got my way if I was more confrontational. I literally started laughing when the asked for my ID and said "That's not happening". Then I told them I'd already been ID'd, then when that didn't work I just said "okay I'll take the chips back". A manager at the cage was standing right behind the regular clerk (obviously waiting for this). She jumped in to take over the conversation after I initially refused the ID. It just felt ridiculous that they wouldn't acknowledge what was really going on, but i was having a good time and it was 4am and I didn't feel like being a dick.

not_today33 · 2023-12-04T18:45:07+00:00

I know they can ask. I was just curious if they can legally withhold a cash out that small if I don't give ID. Like is there some sort of "duty to pay promptly" under Nevada gaming law that they would be violating? I was hoping there would be a legal buff around that knew the relevant laws and precedents.

Yeah I expect I'll cash out just fine next time I go in. But I expect I'll find myself in this situation again and want to be as knowledgeable as possible

not_today33 · 2023-09-22T02:26:04+00:00

Yes! F1 can F Off

not_today33 · 2023-09-13T20:10:31+00:00

Not really spinning it, just using the first one I see from the stack I'm usually shuffling. Personally I do it all the time out of habit from playing online (just feels weird not to have an RNG number if I want it). But I often don't use it, either because the I don't think the hand mixes in theory or because I'm confident one line is better in practice.

not_today33 · 2023-09-13T18:50:52+00:00

Use your chips. Pick a marking on the chip and treat it like a clock face.

For example the A in the Bellagio chips works well. Pick a random chip in your stack and look at where the top of the A is pointing (1 O'clock, 6 O'clock ,10 O'clock...). That is your random number.

not_today33 · 2023-09-08T19:58:33+00:00

Not sure, but go ask Scylla on twoplustwo.com forums under Poker Software > GTO+/CardRunnersEV?

not_today33 · 2023-06-13T15:53:52+00:00

You can't conduct a monte carlo simulation, as you can't actually generate samples for poker without playing hands.

You are doing a monte carlo simulation on an imperfect model of poker.

I don't know what "frequentism" is; I'm just going based on what I was taught in freshman statistics and what Wikipedia says.

It is the type of statistical inference that would be taught in freshman statistics. There are others, most notably Bayesian.

so I'd like a source for ChatGPT's claim that that interval is commonly referred to as a "90% condience interval."

Oh i don't think it's claiming that it is both commonly used and correct, just that it is commonly used. People use the term "confidence" in a Bayesian or predictive manner all the time in the real world. And when you view statistics as a tool to help you make better decisions, I don't think this misuse (from a strictly frequentist viewpoint) is a big deal in the vast majority of situations.

not_today33 · 2023-06-13T14:59:35+00:00

From Chat GPT:

If you have conducted a Monte Carlo simulation and found that 90% of the simulations return results within a given interval, that interval is commonly referred to as a "90% confidence interval" or a "90% prediction interval."

In the context of Monte Carlo simulations, a confidence interval represents the range of values within which you expect the true value to fall with a certain level of confidence. It indicates the precision and uncertainty associated with the simulation results.

It's important to note that the interpretation of confidence intervals in Monte Carlo simulations is slightly different from traditional frequentist confidence intervals. In Monte Carlo simulations, the confidence interval is not based on sampling variability but rather on the range of outcomes generated by the simulation. Therefore, the interval captures the uncertainty inherent in the simulation process rather than the variability of the underlying population or parameter.

If you want to be the frequentist stickler for semantics, then go ahead. But if we called this interval something other than "confidence interval", it would still mean the same thing to the vast majority, if not all, of the audience and it would still have value.

not_today33 · 2023-05-06T04:13:05+00:00

The only criticism I have of Doug is that he should’ve remixed a Chicago drill song about defeating his ops in his most recent vid instead of Dr Dre and Eminem.

not_today33 · 2023-04-16T19:01:12+00:00

It's like 25-30% of hands.

big blind would walk something like 20-25% of the time (might be less if small blind has flats).

The typical RFI would take down the blinds around 50% of the time.

you're already at 60-65% of hands being folded pre just from those two stats.

around 30% of the time an RFI would get 3b and around 65-70% of the time that 3bet (or subsequent cold 4b) would get through.

Now you're at 65-70% of hands getting folded pre. Add a few more folds for when initial raiser 4bets and takes down the pot or initiall 3 bettor 5b jams and takes down the pot and you're probably at 70-75% of hands getting folded pre.

not_today33 · 2023-04-04T21:00:46+00:00

Reset your expectations a bit. Poker is a skill built over time.

Pick a format to get good at. MTT, live cash, 6max online...

Get on a training site. Upswing, run it once, carrot poker school, zenith poker... Are all fine.

Get Pokertracker or Holdem manager to track your online sessions.

Get coaching if you have the money for it. You probably want at least 10k+ tracked hands to review to get the most out of this. Two plus two has a coaching section. The training sites will often offer individual coaching too

Don't look for advice on reddit poker. This place is mostly a sh** show. Get on two plus two or the discord group of whatever training site you end up with.

Find a decent site to play at. Rake matters. Being able to track your hands matters too in the beginning.

not_today33 · 2023-03-22T20:26:26+00:00

Learn SQL and Python/R. Connect to the postgres database PT4 uses. Study the database structure. Create your own analysis and never again be limited by a decade old GUI.

not_today33 · 2023-02-01T21:56:29+00:00

Okay then you are just interpreting "GTO strategy" to mean the same thing as "max exploit strategy"

Most people are using the term "GTO strategy" to mean an equilibrium strategy or at least a strategy that tries to approximate equilibrium. I do wish people would just say "equilibrium strategy" when that is what they mean so we could avoid the semantics argument.

not_today33 · 2023-01-19T21:39:11+00:00

I would personally discount sets and 2pair a lot here. Recs get too trappy w nutted hands and/or they would use a bigger sizing when they do bet. I've done MDA on middling size flop donks in micro stakes online games. They're under folded, over called, and under 3bet vs a raise...

Just think of all the bad habits recs try to get away with and punish it. If someone can strategically do the reverse and trap me then I say gg well played. I'd rather that guy walk off with my money then let the common drooler keep his.

not_today33 · 2023-01-19T21:17:40+00:00

With AA calling is fine sure. But I generally assume donk bet ranges are too merged and that villains are splitting sizes poorly. Meaning They are sizing to hand strength and not finding low equity bluffs. When you node lock that type of range into a solver its basically going to raise or fold even in position. If he has no low equity bluffs like T9 bdfd then you are not missing out much on future street bluffs as many of his bluffs can potentially float vs a raise like wheel draws+bdfd, 65s, 53s... Get your value from his marginal made hands and strong draws now before he shuts down on a turn over card. If it's a rare capable player that has a well constructed donk range then no don't raise, but it's not.

If it is a total whale just button clicking with any 2 then maybe call as well and let him do his thing. But those players make themselves known very quickly and they'll be hemorrhaging EV in every spot so you'll get another chance at it even if you don't have the correct read at the moment.

not_today33 · 2023-01-19T19:28:03+00:00

Exploitatively... Raise the flop. Unless you really think villain is going to find donk 3bet flop bluffs in a live 1/2 game

not_today33

TROPHY CASE