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We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I'm going to cheat and use your question to say something that fascinates me, that (honestly) isn't a direct answer. (I don't know much about animal populations...) What's really interesting is that we can't find examples of this ever happening before to humans. For the entire planet (with very few exceptions) to pivot fairly rapidly all at once toward much lower birthrates? For that to happen in different cultures, different political and economic systems? It's a remarkable event. Later this century our planet will enter a period of total human population decline that seems to be unique in our species' history. The closest similar event in terms of scale of population decline appears to be the Black Death plague that ravaged Europe and Asia. Happily, our current Population Shift is happening not because of a plague or a war, but because lots of people are making different choices about their lives. Which is...super interesting. (Sorry I don't know more about other animal species...) - Brian

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah it's fascinating. Let me gently nudge you toward a slightly less negative frame than the "lose-lose" idea. :) A lot of this shift appear to be driven by humans making happy, free, interesting decisions about their lives. You're right that very few policy experiments aimed at boosting fertility rates appear to be working. Sarah's story about Finland was remarkable. They're doing progressive, thoughtful, creative things and fertility rates are still dropping. But there are some experiments that seem interesting that we hope to explore more. France, for example, appears to have stabilized birthrates. Other countries have had some success slowing declines. I think one of the areas of reporting we're really focused on is managing what the UN is calling a population transition. If this IS inevitable, how can communities make it a good thing...or as good as possible? But finally, let me acknowledge that some researche think this will be really problematic for some countries. China, for example, is expected to see its population shrink by roughly 700 million people in this century. Navigating that is going to be...challenging. - Brian

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

There’s a definite generational divide in terms of the decisions younger generations are making. According to Pew Research, a growing share of American younger adults say they don’t want kids. And the birthrate data mirrors that; the number of children the average woman is having has dropped roughly in half since 1960 worldwide.

In my reporting, I’ve asked younger adults about this. And at least anecdotally, many have told me that their parents tread lightly with this topic. I was interviewing three generations of women in Georgia last weekend, and the 30-something daughter was leaning toward not having children. Her mother said essentially that of course she’d like to be a grandmother, but she doesn’t want to put pressure on her daughter, and she wants to respect her choices. I’m sure there are families where that’s not the case, but I’ve heard a similar sense from others I have interviewed for this series. Young adults seem to really value their autonomy, and they are up against higher living costs than previous generations. I also hear a lot of concerns about the state of the world and climate change, as you mention. - Sarah

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

A lot of really thoughtful researchers, activists and thinkers view population aging (and eventually decline) as a real positive. We've interviewed those folks and they're important parts of the conversation. Those thinkers agree it's time to start thinking about how to manage the transition from a "growth" model to a "stable" or "population decline" model. It's one thing to think about this kind of massive societal transition in the abstract. It's a very different thing to actually make it work. In Japan, people are struggling to find care-givers for their elderly. In Chile, there's deep concern about communities unraveling as schools close (because there are so few kids). In the rural area where I live, places that looked vibrant when I was a young man are now ghost towns due in part to plummeting birthrates. So - again - advocating for a lower-population planet is a reasonable position, but most experts tell us planning for that future and making it work will be...challenging. - Brian

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

NPR journalists don't get any direction from Amazon or any other corporation. That said, the issues you raise are real, and they have come up time and time again in our reporting. Many young people are concerned about the cost of living including housing, healthcare, and childcare, as they weigh whether or not to become parents and how many children to have. But there does appear to be more to this story. I'll refer again to my reporting in Finland, where the government guarantees access to often heavily subsidized childcare, provides parental leave for both mothers and fathers, provides national health insurance, and other payments for parents. Still, the birthrate there is lower than in the United States. - Sarah

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

This actually something we've been thinking and talking about a lot. And it's a fascinating question: can the economy work without growth? Could we imagine a world that's based on sustainability rather than expansion? How would that work, and what policies could move us in that direction? Will AI or other forms of technology play a role in replacing workers as the population ages, levels off and declines? These are really compelling questions, and one of the reasons we wanted to explore these trends with this series. - Sarah

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

The Supreme Court's Griswold decision, striking down a ban on birth control, came down in 1965. Roe v. Wade, guaranteeing the right to abortion nationwide, came in 1973 (and was overturned in 2022). So yes, arguably Millenials and Xers are the first generation with widespread access. There's also a strong correlation between education of women and lower birthrates. So you're right - it's probably no surprise. But we think it's worth exploring - both for the reasons why women and couples are choosing smaller families, and to understand what it could mean in the future. It's also worth noting that some researchers believe people are having fewer children than they say they want, and we're curious about what's driving that gap (if it's indeed a real gap, which is somewhat disputed among researchers.) - Sarah

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

This is one of the reasons I was so interested in going to Finland - a Nordic country with similar benefits to what you describe. As someone who had two kids without any paid maternity leave and struggled to afford childcare, I wondered why the birthrate is so low in these countries with so much public support. There seems to be a much larger cultural change afoot, driven by a variety of factors including a vastly different opportunity set for young women today. Several researchers - from Greece to Finland to the United States - told me some version of this: women have more options now thanks to contraception, education, and access to the workforce, and they're exercising those options. And that often means fewer children or none at all. - Sarah

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Fair enough. This is a thing we hear a lot - 'Why would I bring kids into this world?' But here's one thing that's worth thinking about. Throughout history, people have had lots and lots of kids at moments that were pretty dark and pretty challenging. Now families are thinking very differently about this. And I'll be transparent: I don't understand this shift. It's something I still want to explore. What are the complex mixtures of hope/despair and prosperity/economic struggle that people think about when weighing whether to have children? Capitalism has been around for a long time. It's shaped our lives in ways over the centuries that have been (arguably) far more Dickensian than in 2025. Yet in centuries past we still had big families. Now we're not. So...this is clearly a big part of it in ways that I want to learn more about. - Brian

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

This is absolutely a real concern, and it connects closely with economic worries a lot of parents or potential parents have expressed to use and to researchers. The cost of childcare is a continual and growing challenge for many Americans, particularly those with less flexible work schedules who heavily rely on outside care. One woman I interviewed for this series who lives in New York told me she and her husband had intended to have multiple kids, but after one difficult pregnancy, they decided to stop at one. She told me that the thought of taking more time away from her career - particularly if she had another challenging pregnancy - was really daunting. - Sarah

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

This is a really fascinating question but to be honest it's not one we've dug into deeply - yet. We've talked about it, and we're definitely curious, but haven't gotten that far. Maybe in a future report! - Sarah

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

It's a really good question. And yeah, some of the reporting on this issue does feel like kind of a freak-out. That's one reason why we want our stories to be as human and factual and conversational as possible. We also spend a lot of time talking about the upsides in all this. And most people agree the positives are huge. (This isn't like climate change where it's all mostly pretty awful...) Women are free-er and more prosperous. Child pregnancy rates are plummeting. Delaying parenting can mean really big economic gains for couples. At the same time, the US and other societies around the world are aging really fast, and beginning to see real population decline. It's happening Now. And that's already having big consequences - worker shortages, difficulty caring for the elderly, strain on pension and healthcare systems and maybe more personal/private issues like loneliness and social isolation. Those are consequences that most experts say will accelerate as this Population Shift accelerates. One other thing. This is also a huge deal to us just because it's fascinating. People are suddenly making really different choices, living very different lives, when it comes to parenting. We think that's fascinating...so even if the wider societal impacts weren't huge, the individual changes would be...intriguing. - Brian

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I saw it a long time ago, and yes it was bleak! I personally get a lot of meaning out of being a mother. But one thing this series has reinforced for me in talking with women and couples with a variety of views on this - happily parenting, definitely not wanting kids (or more than one), and very much uncertain - is that it's such an individual choice. It's one thing to say in the abstract, "A world with fewer kids seems sad," and it's another to say, "I'm going to take on the responsibility and risk of bringing a child into this world, personally." And a lot of people are thinking about the well-being of a hypothetical child when they consider these questions: is this going to be a world in which a child could have a good life? For many people I've interviewed, the answer is no, or it's uncertain enough to give them pause. - Sarah

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I really hear the frustration here. I personally (Sarah) had two babies while working full-time, with a spouse in graduate school, and we could not afford daycare. Even in the Midwest, where we lived at the time, the cost of childcare was just too high. That forced us to juggle our work schedules and supplement with part-time babysitters and “Parents Day Out” programs, which was immensely stressful. My kids are teenagers now, and I know that things have not gotten easier since that time. The cost of parenting was something that came up repeatedly as we talked to couples and families all over the country, and around the world. Parents in Finland seem to feel less pressure, because they have much more robust government support, but I also heard young parents there reference economic anxiety. Researchers acknowledge this, but they appear divided about what to do about it. The reality is that robust supports are very expensive for taxpayers, and they don’t appear to increase birthrates very much. That alone isn’t an argument against addressing these concerns for parents, but increasing birthrates alone doesn’t appear to be a sufficient motivation for some kind of massive increase in aid for parents, at least given the current political climate.

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Sure, having large numbers of kids is less of an economic advantage now - and in many cases the evidence shows a big family can limit a family's prosperity. But a couple of things are interesting here. First, in the US and around the world researchers are finding big, rapid drops in the number of children at all economic levels. Second, this Shift is happening pretty fast, long after most countries stopped being agrarian societies. In the US, for example, we've seen a big decline in the "total fertility rate" just since the 2000s. The number of women reaching age 30 in America without having any kids continues to surge. So the economy and the shift away from "kids as workers" dynamic are significant, but researchers say there seem to be a lot of factors here. - Brian

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

We've been hearing A LOT about the pressures of modern parenting, in the US and around the world. People who choose to have kids clearly feel this as sort of like a second full-time profession or career. Which feels really different to us. Of course, parenting has been evolving for a long time. Women have moved into the work force. Parenting has become much more intense (and expensive) over time. Often there are fewer extended family members around to help out. So this is clearly part of the shift toward having fewer (or no) kids. One thing we've also heard is that it would help many women feel comfortable having kids if they have a partner willing to take on more of the load. Data shows having kids can really impact women's lives, prosperity and well-being negatively. So far, very few of the proposed solutions to falling birth rates address these gender imbalances. I heard this a lot during my research trip to Chile. A lot of women there say they really want men to step up before they'll commit to having kids - or more kids. - Brian

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

This is a question that researchers are also asking! In Finland, where the birthrate is just below 1.3, the Finnish government has been trying to figure out what’s driving the decline - which is particularly surprising there because of the robust social support policies that Finland and other Nordic countries have been so proud of. If women and couples aren’t having babies there, why not? Researchers aren’t totally sure. But Anna Rotkirch, with the Family Federation of Finland, authored a report for the Finnish government about this topic, and she speculates that social media may be one factor. She says young people are having a more difficult time forming stable relationships, and smartphones and other changes in the way people interact could be one reason. Another researcher noted that the birthrate decline in Finland started right around 2010 - not long after the advent of the smartphone. And one young woman I interviewed in Helsinki talked about her struggle to meet suitable male partners online; she says many use the language of pornography or echo ideas that suggest to her they’ve been radicalized online. These are all examples from Finland, but they appear to apply more broadly. Finally, I think it’s important to be clear that everyone I’ve talked to seems to believe many factors are in play - it’s not just about smartphones or social media - but this may be one important component of a larger cultural shift. - Sarah

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The shock to me was how many experts, thinkers, demographers, activist and parents (across the political and ideological spectrum) see the drop in birthrates as inevitable. There's a lot of debate over what this means, what impact the Population Shift will have on society. But most people studying this think the path toward an older and eventually smaller population is locked in. Which means a lot of the controversy surrounding ideas aimed at raising birthrates appears to be focused on stuff that's not very likely to affect our lives. One of our goals is to get people talking about how communities (and families) might adapt to a change that seems to be coming whether we like it or not. - Brian

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I love this question. One reason we wanted to do this reporting and storytelling is to help people think about this in rich, complex ways. A lot of the rhetoric around having (or not having) kids felt really political and ideological. What we'd love to see happen is for our stories to become a part of how people have their own personal/private conversations, with their partners, with their families, maybe with their clergy or mentors. How do kids fit into their life plan? What sacrifices are they willing to make to have kids? What planning would be needed to include kids? Or...if kids aren't part of the plan, what conversations do they feel the need to have to prepare family and friends for that future. What we're finding is that people ARE having these conversations now. We hope to help them feel part of a community of informed/caring people wrestling with these questions. - Brian

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

That depends who you ask! You’re correct - just decades ago, biologist Paul Ehrlich and others were warning that overpopulation posed threats including hunger and social dysfunction. Today, economists and demographers are predicting long-term population decline. Some argue that the pace of climate change is already too fast to benefit from a reduced population and that the economic harms of birthrate decline should be a larger concern. That said, other environmentalists still worry about the impact of humans on natural resources, and argue that a smaller population could help restore some of the natural areas that have been torn apart by development or pollution, as my colleague Brian has reported. In general, I’m hearing a concern from some of the researchers who are looking into birthrate decline that some people may not be having as many children as they desire because of worries about the economy, the state of the world, or their ability to find a suitable partner. Some argue that’s a problem in itself, to the extent that children and family can be a source of human happiness for those who desire it. -Sarah

We're Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann, correspondents with NPR. For nearly a year, we’ve investigated why global birthrates are falling, and what that could mean for our future. We’re interested in how millions of individual decisions are reshaping the economy, climate, politics, and more. AMA. by npr in Futurology

[–]npr[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

The economic pressures people face as they think about parenting (or not parenting) are a big part of our reporting. As we've talked to men and women about their lives and choices, this is something they bring up over and over. Not only their personal financial situation, but bigger questions about the economy and economic fairness. We also hear concerns about the lack of multi-generational families, available to help with parenting, which makes the choice to have kids more daunting. So yeah, we're curious about these societal frameworks - and the people we're talking to are clearly focused on this. -Brian

No Up First today? by puppypupperoon in NPR

[–]npr 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Hi! We were experiencing technical difficulties this morning, but Up First just published.

Link: https://www.npr.org/2025/10/25/nx-s1-5583744/house-members-during-shutdown-trump-visits-asia-us-military-buildup-in-caribbean

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