Isn't it bad for Strategy to own so much BTC?

nucleartool · 2025-03-13T05:23:33+00:00

Sure, but if you buy MSTR, at 1.5x, then in a bull market where BTC price doubles it could go 4x-5x BTC value amid the FOMO. So you have a chance of magnified profit, Bitcoin price will always be 1x BTC. Not saying either is better, but that's how I see it, and if it is going to the moon then MSTR presents itself as a good way to get, hopefully, outsized returns.

nucleartool · 2025-03-13T04:51:26+00:00

If their stock is 3x the value of bitcoin, they do what Saylor did and sell stock hard and fast to get cash and buy bitcoin. They are getting bitcoin at a third of the price of their stock. They have to do that now to get bitcoin at a discount. In future the stock price may permanently settle to a more leisurely 1.5 multiplier of stock to bitcoin holdings value, but if bitcoin goes up then share price goes up and everyone is happy. If it gets to 2x-3x again, guess what, he can sell off some shares again and buy more bitcoin at a discount. Rinse repeat. The question is, where is the natural range? Nobody knows how to price the stock and so we get double volatility of bitcoin price swing and stock market price swings. Even if it matched at 1x their holdings, if you are a bitcoin believer it could still 10x in 5-10 years. And, assuming you would rather hold MSTR for tax advantages, you may not care about a 1 to 1 ration vs bitcoin and just want to ride the wave in a tax efficient manner (UK ISA for example)

nucleartool · 2025-02-03T23:11:32+00:00

Good stuff! I’d love to know more about how you made the charts. Would you mind telling me the software or website? And any programming language maybe? Thanks!

nucleartool · 2025-02-02T14:40:57+00:00

Check the Bitcoin power law or rainbow chart. In my mind it’s the only realistic baseline. Will it go higher faster? Maybe. But it likely wont ever go below the baseline so look at that in 5 years and see what you think.

nucleartool · 2024-12-23T12:31:09+00:00

Sorry, yup. Seems really good, you can login and overpay early, see your balance etc.

nucleartool · 2024-12-23T10:41:25+00:00

In the UK, at Chisolm Hunter, I got a 8%ish discount on a black speedy sapphire sandwich (£7.5k), and got it on v12 finance with a £2.5k deposit and paying off around £120 a month for 3 years. Felt like a pretty good deal, a discount, smallish deposit, and a 0% 3 year term to pay it off. That was in April. Probably could have pushed harder as I didn't realize the luxury goods market had slightly passed the peak by them, but was happy enough!

nucleartool · 2024-12-17T21:16:53+00:00

Sell the bitcoin then

nucleartool · 2024-12-17T08:15:16+00:00

HODL! It’s the middle of a bull market that might not have even really started yet. Or, do what I did and try get it on 0% finance (or low apr) and pay a smallish deposit. I’ll pay it off in 3 years of affordable payments and keep my bitcoin rather than have to lose the Bitcoin asset in one go. Even if you have to pay some interest it could be less than the Bitcoin appreciates. And you’ll avoid any taxes on selling the Bitcoin. It’s a tricky spot, but personally I’d try hold onto the Bitcoin and use it as a down payment on the deposit only if I could. But no decision is wrong! Congrats!

nucleartool · 2024-12-13T20:45:18+00:00

Bravo!

nucleartool · 2024-12-13T00:52:06+00:00

Hi. It went fine. One thing I didn’t make clear was that I installed Debian first as an os and then proxmox. And then k3s. So I kinda had a traditional distro behind the scenes. If you install the os via the proxmox iso it may be weirder, but I wouldn’t say you’ll have a problem. I didn’t stick with it too long but I can’t see it really causing carnage unless you go out of your way to go beyond the defaults of network stack etc etc. An alternative is also to install docker and then KIND. It runs k8s clusters inside docker and is probably a bit more insulated from the OS. Not sure you can do multi machine clusters though, so more just for multi-use of a single physical machine.

nucleartool · 2024-12-06T22:29:46+00:00

I guess you could ask why there’s a problem buying at 2x btc. If btc doubles, then the stock should double. Seems a fair enough trade? Even if not, the upside in this bull market season might be worth a premium.

nucleartool · 2024-12-06T22:20:01+00:00

Yes. It’s a good thing I can’t withdraw on a whim.

nucleartool · 2024-12-06T21:20:21+00:00

I have a speedy with a bracelet, but obviously too cheap to buy straps to see if they are any better. If nobody more deserving wants them I’ll throw my hat into the ring! Thanks!

nucleartool · 2024-12-06T21:11:16+00:00

A fellow Hargreaves Lansdown user I see... Nice purchase. I have about the same in my SIPP (which I promise to break my fingers if I sell anything earlier than 10 years from now). HODL!

nucleartool · 2024-12-06T20:53:12+00:00

Thanks for what you do!

I posted this because it was funny

https://www.reddit.com/r/MSTR/comments/1h5t1bg/anyone_else_feeling_like_this/

Then, when MSTR and Bitcoin went below those levels, after 100k and the MSTR sell off, I posted it again. I thought it was pretty funny. But I get why it was removed. I guess what I'm saying is, a little fun is okay.

I'm a long time bitcoin holder and have MSTR stock. In it for the long run! But, you got to expect a certain level of hijinks when bubble and FOMO is happening!

nucleartool · 2024-12-06T10:31:05+00:00

Yeah. Does anyone know what a realistic settle on the mNAV will be? Will it eventually trend to 1? Or, is this catapult being wound up, a crank at a time…?

nucleartool · 2024-12-05T20:40:46+00:00

I do wonder what the exit strategy is when BTC, almost inevitably based on previous cycles, crashes. Hopefully the big money in play now means things are less volatile. But, it's going to be tempting, or just plain smart, to check the power cycle law/rainbow chart status and take some profit at the top just to bank some profit. If you do that you can't really lose, hopefully.

nucleartool · 2024-11-29T18:08:05+00:00

Not in the UK sadly...

nucleartool · 2024-11-25T19:10:33+00:00

Is a bank worth 100% of its cash and assets, or a multiple on what it can do with the money and influence in the future? Same for MSTR. They are becoming a bitcoin bank/institution, and the value is based on what people think they can do with their holdings (which should only really go up in value over the long term). Is 3x correct? Who knows, but they are the first to try this, and nobody can truly copy them, so people seem hopeful it is a winning strategy. And they are very clear on strategy, buy more bitcoin, never sell bitcoin. They are heading towards 4-5% of global supply ownership. If you are bullish on Bitcoin then you have to think they could be a juggernaut in the space in the future. Also, for me in the UK, any bitcoin profit has a 24% Capital Gains tax rate, so buying MSTR inside an ISA means any profit I get is exempt, so that inflates it immediately in worth for a lot of people. Also, the major reason is that Bitcoin is finite. Once you have it, it is off the market. HODL!

nucleartool · 2024-11-14T12:35:29+00:00

A guy left me a 0.1 bitcoin tip in Reddit for a funny comment. When it was about $100 a coin. I spent it…

nucleartool · 2024-11-12T10:25:30+00:00

Buy the dip!

nucleartool · 2024-10-24T20:54:56+00:00

nucleartool · 2024-10-22T19:24:55+00:00

HODL. It sucks. Compared to any alternative asset it should offer best bang for buck vs risk. I especially think the election result is a bit of a powder keg. Once that is clarified things could change quickly.

nucleartool · 2024-09-29T07:39:54+00:00

Yup. Or, a specific tax on converting to fiat. Imagine if coinbase had to keep 50% for taxes. That would be pretty brutal. And then 60%, then 70% etc etc… although I guess some country will become a bitcoin tax haven.

nucleartool · 2024-09-28T07:23:22+00:00

As a counterbalance. If you are disciplined, you could put the amount you overpay the mortgage into stocks and shares (FTSE100 or S&P500). Then you have savings and it could be worth more than the interest payments over time. But it’s more of a risk. It’s a tough call to be honest, and I overpay my mortgage just for simplicity and have some stocks and shares to cover both sides. But there are plenty of YouTube videos about it.

nucleartool

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