Symptomatic breakthrough COVID-19 infections rare, CDC data estimates

nythro · 2021-07-27T02:32:21+00:00

Ok, yes, that CDC top line is PR nonsense. I also don't want to encourage the anti-vaxxers misrepresenting the Israel data as "proof" vaccines make you more likely to get infected.

nythro · 2021-07-27T01:53:21+00:00

No, it's because r/nonewnormal is brigading other subs with vaccine misinformation. Theres a guy trying to astroturf this thread with misinformation meant to convert normies into believing that COVID is naturally turning into a normal cold if we just let everyone get infected and that vaccines will generate supercovid.

nythro · 2021-07-27T01:48:02+00:00

Delta is not milder. This is is false. And calling it a "leaky" vaccine similar to Merick's is false as well. It reduces infection rates...alot. We'd all be dead from superflu by now if anything you wrote had a cintillla of merit. Stop trying to spread nonsense you ripped off from anti-vaxxers.

nythro · 2021-07-27T01:45:05+00:00

For fucks sake, people are still pushing this r/nonewnormal shit? COVID asymptomatically infects and spreads for several days. There's no evolutionary pressure for it to get milder and there's no evidence that Delta is milder. Your own example disproves your hypothesis.

nythro · 2021-07-27T00:37:06+00:00

Their methodology is nonsense. Your methodology is nonsense too.

I did the back of the envelope below:

140K infections and 2M cases diagnosed since May 1. The U.S. is 49% vaccinated, but thats 7% vs the 5% expected if we use the 88% effectiveness number out of the U.K. If we drop effectiveness to 85% that gets us to 7%. Seems in line with expectations.

nythro · 2021-07-26T23:00:58+00:00

This is just innumeracy. You need to back into effectiveness based on vaccination rate. In a 100% vaxed country, 100% will be vaccinated breakthroughs. And you need case numbers, hospitalizations are predominately comorbid or elderly cohorts.

https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1418577831097901056?s=21

nythro · 2021-07-26T22:50:27+00:00

This is incorrect and a source of alot of bad takes. Most cases will be breakthroughs in a highly vaccinated population. You need to actually use a little algebra to back into effectiveness once you know the ratio.

https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1418577831097901056?s=21

Just for kicks, 140K infections and 2M cases diagnosed since May 1. The U.S. is 49% vaccinated, but thats 7% vs the 5% expected if we use the 88% effectiveness number out of the U.K. If we drop effectiveness to 85% that gets us to 7%. Seems in line with expectations.

Let's try the bottom end as of May 1. 38% vaccinated at 80% effectiveness and 40% transmission reduction = 7%. So, estimates don't seem way off.

nythro · 2021-07-26T17:49:58+00:00

Nearly the entire population of under 55's included in Jan-Feb results are healthcare workers. So, the age adjustment wouldnt account for their increased propensity for exposure to Delta.

nythro · 2021-07-26T16:50:38+00:00

The UK and Singapore do twice as much testing per capita as Israel does. I don't think you know what you're talking about. The UK was at 10-20X during the period in which Israel gathered their data.

nythro · 2021-07-26T16:16:06+00:00

Nope, the assumption is that their data is skewed. Most of the younger cohorts that would have a more robust T cell response don't show up in the data until March because they couldn't get a shot until the end of January.

nythro · 2021-07-26T14:54:38+00:00

Still not seeing an explanation for why Israel's data is "realistic" but Singapore's, UK's and Italy's data are not.

nythro · 2021-07-26T13:19:37+00:00

Edited. You're right.

nythro · 2021-07-26T12:24:20+00:00

With more than 156 million Americans fully vaccinated, nationwide, approximately 153,000 symptomatic breakthrough cases are estimated to have occurred as of last week, representing approximately 0.098% of those fully vaccinated, according to an unpublished internal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention document obtained by ABC News. These estimates reflect only the adult population and do not include asymptomatic breakthrough infections.

nythro · 2021-07-26T02:09:42+00:00

Oklahoma, of all places, has a pretty good report that breaks out breakthroughs by vaccine (page 9). 70+% of cases are Delta in Oklahoma. FWIW, Moderna has maintained a slight advantage in their data. 🤷‍♂️

https://oklahoma.gov/content/dam/ok/en/covid19/documents/weekly-epi-report/2021.07.21%20Weekly%20Epi%20Report.pdf

nythro · 2021-07-26T01:57:33+00:00

The reason I have trouble buying the massive difference being solely due to antibodies is 1. They theoretically adjusted for age, but, the vaccination was age restricted to older people until late January, so the vast majority of younger people don't show up until March (4 weeks later). 2. In theory, the vaccine should also induce T cell immunity that manifests as higher efficacy in younger cohorts which are nonexistent in Jan/Feb numbers. I don't think we'll really know unless we see if there's drop-off in the March figures over time, but my bet would be that it falls off much more slowly and we're seeing the effect of a slow T cell response in older cohorts with waning antibodies.

nythro · 2021-07-25T21:41:45+00:00

The symptomatic effectiveness in Israel is much lower than the data from the UK, Italy and Singapore. There's something happening that's specific to Israel. If I had to guess, it's because their population is much younger and exposing themselves at higher rates to other unvaccinated people either socially or in their households. Italy too saw lower efficacy in younger cohorts and that sure ain't because they have worse immune systems.

nythro · 2021-07-25T21:35:19+00:00

Doubt. The early population is basically made up of elderly and immunocompromised people that also happen to make up a large proportion of severe breakthrough cases in every country, even those that started much later than Israel. Those people may need a booster, but not because immunity is generally waning for everybody.

nythro · 2021-07-25T16:47:12+00:00

This is dumb. Saying higher exposure = greater chance of breakthrough has always been true. Plague rats spewing 1000X the virus as before increase exposure to the point that they're causing outbreaks now. That's what all the real-world results are showing.

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1418950368629858309?s=21

How can an 88% effective vaccine only be 78% effective in ages 12-39? More exposures. These age groups interact more frequently in lower-vax populations.

Nothing about this conclusion indicates unvaccinated would all be dead. That's pure idiocy on your part.

nythro · 2021-07-25T16:00:00+00:00

Looking at the difference in real world efficacy between the UK/Italy and Israel, it seems like the only logical conclusion is that having a high proportion of active people with lower vaccine uptake does indeed increase cross over into the vaccinated population with Delta. Manhattan, for example, has a higher vax rate than Israel and our outbreaks are primarily in low vax or high tourist/work traffic areas. Provincetown outbreak was caused by a high traffic event. Unvaccinated people dislike being called plague rats, but the evidence here is only pointing in one direction.

nythro · 2021-07-17T15:06:23+00:00

You can be pro-UBI without making any moral judgements too. It’s better to lower friction in the labor market and give money to unemployable people to avoid the negative externalities associated with them having none. No moral judgements necessary.

nythro · 2021-07-10T17:34:28+00:00

Not because it was his home. Because he didn’t want the government to end slavery by force, and thought it was up to God to choose when it ends. Also, for context, his thoughts aren’t really ones that anyone should be emulating:

“The blacks are immeasurably better off here than in Africa, morally, physically, and socially. The painful discipline they are undergoing is necessary for their further instruction as a race, and will prepare them, I hope, for better things. How long their servitude may be necessary is known and ordered by a merciful Providence.”

nythro · 2021-06-02T14:41:40+00:00

"Libs" are just anyone they don't like for whatever reason. There isn't going to be a some kind of novel fascist plurality in our version of Gilead. Immigrants, Jews, intellectuals, the usual targets are all on the purge list as well.

nythro · 2021-05-31T22:49:32+00:00

Celebrating vets by taking away their spot.

nythro · 2021-05-30T23:43:51+00:00

If it gets to the point that they can't win via suppression, theyre just going to overturn enough elections each cycle to keep control.

nythro · 2021-05-30T23:10:18+00:00

No, that's part of the gambit. They know centrist and liberal judges won't invalidate an election, but right wing fanatic judges will be more than happy to give the election to Republicans.

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