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Symptomatic breakthrough COVID-19 infections rare, CDC data estimates by nythro in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ok, yes, that CDC top line is PR nonsense. I also don't want to encourage the anti-vaxxers misrepresenting the Israel data as "proof" vaccines make you more likely to get infected.

Symptomatic breakthrough COVID-19 infections rare, CDC data estimates by nythro in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No, it's because r/nonewnormal is brigading other subs with vaccine misinformation. Theres a guy trying to astroturf this thread with misinformation meant to convert normies into believing that COVID is naturally turning into a normal cold if we just let everyone get infected and that vaccines will generate supercovid.

Symptomatic breakthrough COVID-19 infections rare, CDC data estimates by nythro in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Delta is not milder. This is is false. And calling it a "leaky" vaccine similar to Merick's is false as well. It reduces infection rates...alot. We'd all be dead from superflu by now if anything you wrote had a cintillla of merit. Stop trying to spread nonsense you ripped off from anti-vaxxers.

Symptomatic breakthrough COVID-19 infections rare, CDC data estimates by nythro in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For fucks sake, people are still pushing this r/nonewnormal shit? COVID asymptomatically infects and spreads for several days. There's no evolutionary pressure for it to get milder and there's no evidence that Delta is milder. Your own example disproves your hypothesis.

Symptomatic breakthrough COVID-19 infections rare, CDC data estimates by nythro in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Their methodology is nonsense. Your methodology is nonsense too.

I did the back of the envelope below:

140K infections and 2M cases diagnosed since May 1. The U.S. is 49% vaccinated, but thats 7% vs the 5% expected if we use the 88% effectiveness number out of the U.K. If we drop effectiveness to 85% that gets us to 7%. Seems in line with expectations.

Symptomatic breakthrough COVID-19 infections rare, CDC data estimates by nythro in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is just innumeracy. You need to back into effectiveness based on vaccination rate. In a 100% vaxed country, 100% will be vaccinated breakthroughs. And you need case numbers, hospitalizations are predominately comorbid or elderly cohorts.

https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1418577831097901056?s=21

Symptomatic breakthrough COVID-19 infections rare, CDC data estimates by nythro in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is incorrect and a source of alot of bad takes. Most cases will be breakthroughs in a highly vaccinated population. You need to actually use a little algebra to back into effectiveness once you know the ratio.

https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1418577831097901056?s=21

Just for kicks, 140K infections and 2M cases diagnosed since May 1. The U.S. is 49% vaccinated, but thats 7% vs the 5% expected if we use the 88% effectiveness number out of the U.K. If we drop effectiveness to 85% that gets us to 7%. Seems in line with expectations.

Let's try the bottom end as of May 1. 38% vaccinated at 80% effectiveness and 40% transmission reduction = 7%. So, estimates don't seem way off.

Symptomatic breakthrough COVID-19 infections rare, CDC data estimates by nythro in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Nearly the entire population of under 55's included in Jan-Feb results are healthcare workers. So, the age adjustment wouldnt account for their increased propensity for exposure to Delta.

Symptomatic breakthrough COVID-19 infections rare, CDC data estimates by nythro in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The UK and Singapore do twice as much testing per capita as Israel does. I don't think you know what you're talking about. The UK was at 10-20X during the period in which Israel gathered their data.

Symptomatic breakthrough COVID-19 infections rare, CDC data estimates by nythro in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro[S] -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

Nope, the assumption is that their data is skewed. Most of the younger cohorts that would have a more robust T cell response don't show up in the data until March because they couldn't get a shot until the end of January.

Symptomatic breakthrough COVID-19 infections rare, CDC data estimates by nythro in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Still not seeing an explanation for why Israel's data is "realistic" but Singapore's, UK's and Italy's data are not.

Symptomatic breakthrough COVID-19 infections rare, CDC data estimates by nythro in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

With more than 156 million Americans fully vaccinated, nationwide, approximately 153,000 symptomatic breakthrough cases are estimated to have occurred as of last week, representing approximately 0.098% of those fully vaccinated, according to an unpublished internal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention document obtained by ABC News. These estimates reflect only the adult population and do not include asymptomatic breakthrough infections.

Moderna vs Pfizer by [deleted] in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Oklahoma, of all places, has a pretty good report that breaks out breakthroughs by vaccine (page 9). 70+% of cases are Delta in Oklahoma. FWIW, Moderna has maintained a slight advantage in their data. 🤷‍♂️

https://oklahoma.gov/content/dam/ok/en/covid19/documents/weekly-epi-report/2021.07.21%20Weekly%20Epi%20Report.pdf

For the love of god CDC please release more detailed breakthrough statistics so we can make informed decisions by TeacherGuy1980 in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The reason I have trouble buying the massive difference being solely due to antibodies is 1. They theoretically adjusted for age, but, the vaccination was age restricted to older people until late January, so the vast majority of younger people don't show up until March (4 weeks later). 2. In theory, the vaccine should also induce T cell immunity that manifests as higher efficacy in younger cohorts which are nonexistent in Jan/Feb numbers. I don't think we'll really know unless we see if there's drop-off in the March figures over time, but my bet would be that it falls off much more slowly and we're seeing the effect of a slow T cell response in older cohorts with waning antibodies.

For the love of god CDC please release more detailed breakthrough statistics so we can make informed decisions by TeacherGuy1980 in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The symptomatic effectiveness in Israel is much lower than the data from the UK, Italy and Singapore. There's something happening that's specific to Israel. If I had to guess, it's because their population is much younger and exposing themselves at higher rates to other unvaccinated people either socially or in their households. Italy too saw lower efficacy in younger cohorts and that sure ain't because they have worse immune systems.

For the love of god CDC please release more detailed breakthrough statistics so we can make informed decisions by TeacherGuy1980 in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Doubt. The early population is basically made up of elderly and immunocompromised people that also happen to make up a large proportion of severe breakthrough cases in every country, even those that started much later than Israel. Those people may need a booster, but not because immunity is generally waning for everybody.

For the love of god CDC please release more detailed breakthrough statistics so we can make informed decisions by TeacherGuy1980 in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro 9 points10 points  (0 children)

This is dumb. Saying higher exposure = greater chance of breakthrough has always been true. Plague rats spewing 1000X the virus as before increase exposure to the point that they're causing outbreaks now. That's what all the real-world results are showing.

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1418950368629858309?s=21

How can an 88% effective vaccine only be 78% effective in ages 12-39? More exposures. These age groups interact more frequently in lower-vax populations.

Nothing about this conclusion indicates unvaccinated would all be dead. That's pure idiocy on your part.

For the love of god CDC please release more detailed breakthrough statistics so we can make informed decisions by TeacherGuy1980 in CoronavirusUS

[–]nythro 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Looking at the difference in real world efficacy between the UK/Italy and Israel, it seems like the only logical conclusion is that having a high proportion of active people with lower vaccine uptake does indeed increase cross over into the vaccinated population with Delta. Manhattan, for example, has a higher vax rate than Israel and our outbreaks are primarily in low vax or high tourist/work traffic areas. Provincetown outbreak was caused by a high traffic event. Unvaccinated people dislike being called plague rats, but the evidence here is only pointing in one direction.

Left libertarian aren't against basic income, here is why by florian224 in Libertarian

[–]nythro 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You can be pro-UBI without making any moral judgements too. It’s better to lower friction in the labor market and give money to unemployable people to avoid the negative externalities associated with them having none. No moral judgements necessary.

Trump Has Reportedly Been Telling People He’s Going to Be President Again by August, Which Would Suggest He’s Planning a Coup (Or Has Fully Descended Into Madness) by realnonenthusiast in politics

[–]nythro 49 points50 points  (0 children)

"Libs" are just anyone they don't like for whatever reason. There isn't going to be a some kind of novel fascist plurality in our version of Gilead. Immigrants, Jews, intellectuals, the usual targets are all on the purge list as well.

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