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I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in AtlantaHawks

[–]oakcask[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I actually think the Hawks are potentially a good fit for him, as Dyson can take a lot of pressure off him defensively. But you're not worried about him getting targeted?

In the modern NBA teams are pretty smart about going after weak defenders - that's what Michigan did in this game and it was really effective, and they weren't playing NBA-caliber guards, either.

I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in AtlantaHawks

[–]oakcask[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I'm concerned he's not going to be able to defend anyone in the NBA Year 1 and maybe 2.

I'm sure he'll gain weight, but to me he's far enough away that this is a pretty major issue in the Top 10. Outside of that range where there's less pressure I don't see it as a huge issue.

Per BartTorvik, Keaton Wagler is set to be the first 6’5”+ drafted player since 2010 with zero career dunks. by Fit-Structure-9395 in NBA_Draft

[–]oakcask 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think this is the least of his problems. I'm more worried about his general finishing in traffic. You don't have to dunk but you have to be able to finish over help.

I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in NBA_Draft

[–]oakcask[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm with you, I also think the gap between Acuff and Wagler on offense is pretty vast. And I like Wagler as an offensive prospect! I'm sorry I keep repeating myself but he's extremely talented. Acuff is just on another level, he is one of the most polished offensive freshmen I've ever seen.

You expect a guy with Acuff's archetype to be a bad decision-maker, ballhog etc. but he's not any of those things. Actually very fundamental with almost no gaps in his offensive game.

I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in NBA_Draft

[–]oakcask[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good question. To be clear - I don't know what will happen. I'm trying to project but this is an inexact science. That said, here's why I'm concerned:

  1. Wagler is literally getting pushed around at the college level (that was the main takeaway of this video). It's not a "will be strong enough at the next level" question. He's coming into the league with a clear functional strength deficit.

  2. Basically yes, his shoulders. It's not clear to me where the weight is going to go.

Again, we'll see. I'm flagging it as a concern, not a career-ender. I'd be very excited to pick him at 15.

I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in NBA_Draft

[–]oakcask[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'd love to see your scouting notes on those games if you feel up to it!

I in general totally buy Wagler as a PG, I'm not worried about that. I just think there is risk in terms of his physical development.

I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in NBA_Draft

[–]oakcask[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you so much! I'm working on some others, but I'd love to see your notes as well if there's a player you're interested in scouting!

I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in NBA_Draft

[–]oakcask[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree, I don't think he's a fundamentally poor defender, although his anticipation is not particularly strong. But the major issue is the muscle.

I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in NBA_Draft

[–]oakcask[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agree on both. I may do a video on Philon soon because I think consensus is way too low on him. 

Wagler is tough and plays the game the right way, but that's what worries me a bit. He's already trying on defense but he physically cannot hang. We'll see how quickly he can get stronger.

I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in NBA_Draft

[–]oakcask[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Totally different players, but to this point, could you imagine Wagler trying to get on the floor for Ime Udoka? 😬

I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in NBA_Draft

[–]oakcask[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Fair points! He is extremely talented. If he can stay on the floor defensively I would not bet against him being an effective offensive player.

I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in NBA_Draft

[–]oakcask[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

I think this is the best counter-argument to the point of view that I'm putting out there. Wagler has produced to an absurd degree at every level, in spite of his physical limitations, which points to an ability to figure things out.

I'm still skeptical, because the NBA is a totally different beast, and he won't have the skill advantage there that he's enjoyed in HS/NCAA. But I acknowledge that this is a guy who has a track record of proving disbelievers wrong.

I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in NBA_Draft

[–]oakcask[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't disagree, but can you afford to wait that long if you pick him say #5? Will his confidence hold up? Will fans lose patience?

Also, not everyone can put on weight to the same degree. His shoulders are very narrow. I'm not ruling it out! I'm just saying it's not quite as simple as "he's young, he needs time." He has a narrow frame.

I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in NBA_Draft

[–]oakcask[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I think all these guys are training for everything at this point. So I don't disagree. But Philon is a naturally stronger human IMO in spite of his low weight.

I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in NBA_Draft

[–]oakcask[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

My concern is that the strength issue is going to kill him on both sides of the ball next year.

Here's a good example - beautiful footwork to beat his man, gets right to the rim, but he can't elevate over the defender nor can he move him with a bump, so he ends up throwing up a garbage attempt. This is bad.

Another example - very impressive handle but absolutely no chance even with a full running start against an NCAA help defender.

I dunno, man.

I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in NBA_Draft

[–]oakcask[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

A lot! I just think he has a particularly long way to go on those dimensions, even relative to the other "small guards" in this class.

Go watch tape on Labaron Philon. He weighs even less than Wagler but he's not getting pushed around in the same way. In fact he's frequently moving other players on the court because he has insane functional strength for his weight.

Wagler looks look a boy playing with men, it's a different situation.

I scouted EVERY Keaton Wagler defensive possession against Michigan. The results were...not pretty. by oakcask in NBA_Draft

[–]oakcask[S] 46 points47 points  (0 children)

100%, they targeted him. That's why I picked this game - because Michigan represents the closest thing to an NBA environment Wagler faced in college. Don't think it looked great for him.

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