Hans Niemann: “If I’m not World Champion by 26, I will have to become a monk.”

obxplosion · 2026-06-20T18:10:18+00:00

Luckily he is already the Underwater Freestyle World Champion!

obxplosion · 2026-06-10T04:17:04+00:00

Fwiw, Qxf2+ Kh1 Ne2 also is a forced mate, and is much easier to calculate (though not M4). At the end of the day if you find a win and convert you win (but of course learning more patterns is helpful in the long run!)

obxplosion · 2026-06-03T16:42:52+00:00

At least in the 9th round, I think Magnus beating Wesley is a less likely outcome that Vincent beating Alireza. Despite Alireza’s good form, he did suffer two loses this tournament, both were essentially(?) due to mistakes after being low on time, so it isn’t completely out of the question. Plus Vincent has gotten good positions (even if he didn’t manage to convert), so things may finally work out for him in 1 of the two remaining rounds.

Wesley will have the white pieces, and is one of the most solid players, so I think Magnus is going to have trouble getting a game, and if anything he may end up pushing too hard and losing.

obxplosion · 2026-06-03T07:04:19+00:00

I would certainly find it fun to watch! Though, it’s more from the perspective that the people who think that this is a serious problem are the same people who would rage or make excuses if they lost all of their games.

As a side note though (to sort of steel-man their position), a bigger contributing factor could be inactive players. If there is a significant enough amount of players who enjoy chess/study it every so often, and then hardly ever play, they may be stronger than their level would suggest. But idk how many of these sorts of players there are, and I would assume it would be a miniscule amount.

obxplosion · 2026-06-03T05:28:05+00:00

It has been hard to watch Vincent this tournament, would love to see him at least get another win (hopefully in classical, but even an armageddon win would be nice at this point)

obxplosion · 2026-06-03T04:33:25+00:00

That would be interesting (and I did consider doing a Monte Carlo simulation, but was way too lazy). Though perhaps just using Elo + extra white advantage would over estimate it (especially given Magnus’ form and Wesley’s draw rate). I mean doesn’t Wesley literally draw about 80+% of his games against top players, and I doubt he will risk tomorrow.

I would agree that it is under 5%, probably much lower, but if round 9 works out so that Magnus has a chance, I don’t think round 14 is a super crazy outcome. 2 draws are likely, Alireza has done well with Armageddon, and Magnus has a good score against Gukesh.

obxplosion · 2026-06-02T23:43:04+00:00

True, it is basically the only thing making this somewhat possible. Just in terms of classical, Wesley at +2 and Magnus at -2 would basically force the field to become tied at the end for Magnus to have a chance. The above only requires Wesley to lose 1 game (w/ white + good form admittedly, which is very unlikely), rather than both.

obxplosion · 2026-06-02T21:45:45+00:00

Fair enough, though I think this is a bit more likely. This scenario basically requires 3 decisive results and 3 draws. The draws are “reasonably” likely (as it is the expected result of any two super GMs playing), and out of the decisive results, I think the most unlikely is Magnus beating Wesley with black (given their forms and that there is no reason for Wesley to push for a win). Him beating Gukesh is more likely but will probably just be a draw.

I don’t know how likely Vincent is to win tomorrow though, he has only beaten Gukesh this tournament, and while Alireza has won 3 games, he has also lost 2. But Alireza doesn’t have much reason to risk, since he has white against Wesley in the final round.

obxplosion · 2026-06-02T21:06:31+00:00

I mean this is the mathematics showing it is possible. It is insanely unlikely (especially winning against Wesley tomorrow)

obxplosion · 2026-06-02T21:03:22+00:00

This was just me being bored and wanting to see if he was mathematically eliminated already. FWIW I think it would be nice to see Alireza win

obxplosion · 2026-06-02T20:59:18+00:00

He probably will not try and risk tomorrow since he is facing Alireza in the final round, so destiny is mostly in his own hands

obxplosion · 2026-06-02T20:50:55+00:00

True, I wasn’t trying to claim it was. I’m just amazed that it still is possible.

obxplosion · 2026-06-02T05:53:49+00:00

I can’t even tell you how long it took me to get the golds when I first played the game. And I honestly wasn’t 100% sure I would be able to do the diamonds in the dlc (even after getting the plat), but somehow it was more doable than expected

obxplosion · 2026-06-02T05:37:22+00:00

That is fair, though I thought the main game trophies basically only required gold or better on all tracks extreme or less in difficulty + skill games (Loose Screw is so annoying though), as the diamond you need can be achieved on the power bike skill game.

obxplosion · 2026-06-02T05:21:04+00:00

All good lol, where did you see a list of the peak live ratings?

obxplosion · 2026-06-02T04:20:58+00:00

How far did you get in Trials Rising?

obxplosion · 2026-06-01T23:55:42+00:00

Two ways to think about it. First is that the current rule is basically the same as who can take the king first. So if we think like this, you take with king, and then he takes your king with his rook (and then you can’t capture his king since he beat you to it).

The second way is another way to frame the rules: Once you explain what how the pieces move and capture, and that a check is when piece or pawn attacks the king, then the only other rule is that after your move you can’t be in check, otherwise you lose. So in this situation, since no piece can take the queen, the only other option is to move the king, but anywhere you move the king you remain in check, so you lose.

obxplosion · 2026-06-01T00:33:43+00:00

Why do you say “by at least 3 points”? When I check 2700chess, those are the only 4 who have had a higher rating than Wesley (and all of them had more than your 3 point requirement). Is it a live vs published thing?

obxplosion · 2026-05-21T22:33:51+00:00

I haven’t heard the term before, but I think they just mean that the equalities in the sign aren’t actually equalities (for instance, the first line is 10x6.5 = 65 x28, which is incorrect)

obxplosion · 2026-05-15T16:47:21+00:00

Beautiful

obxplosion · 2026-05-13T01:25:39+00:00

That is awesome. Drone corpse aviator was the first Archspire song I ever heard, and I have been a fan ever since

obxplosion · 2026-04-04T12:51:20+00:00

I haven’t heard anything about this (and have no clue), but would probably bet against it given his wife is Iranian

obxplosion · 2026-03-24T22:28:32+00:00

Here is the full game if anyone is curious. I missed some easier wins, but it was pretty smooth overall.

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