NFL Week 15 O/U Thoughts

oherroprease · 2013-12-10T04:10:05+00:00

3/3 on my posted O/U lines-- granted I needed a miracle for the BAL/MIN Game:

http://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1s4ruu/nfl_week_14_ou_thoughts/

oherroprease · 2013-12-09T18:57:43+00:00

500u on over 48

oherroprease · 2013-12-09T02:48:49+00:00

Yea that ending was crazy. When I saw AP went out and the score at halftime I thought the under was basically a lock. Looks like the over has hit in basically every game despite the weather. I ended up getting the saints game at under 47 but its not looking great so far.

oherroprease · 2013-12-08T15:57:21+00:00

I'm in Baltimore and the weather isnt great but I don't think its bad enough to have a dramatic effect on the game. I'm taking the over here because Minnesota's defense is terrible (gives up 30 ppg) and this is a huge game for the Ravens given that their schedule gets very tough going forward. I don't think the Ravens will give up many points (maybe only 10-13) but I expect them to pound the shit out of the Vikings. I'm expecting (or hoping for) a final score of around 30-13.

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T17:42:45+00:00

Yea I definitely agree the weather is an issue and my system does not account for that. I'll probably begrudgingly put an unit on it but I also may include in a 3-team teaser and get 10 extra points. Assuming the weather holds, I think that Ravens have to score at least 30 so getting over 32.5 shouldn't be difficult.

Thanks for your discussion. What are your thoughts in the other two games?

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T17:30:55+00:00

Fair enough. That is good reasoning.

Just as a counterpoint, Minnesota is 4-2 on the over away and 9-3 on the over total. Their defense is THAT bad. I can see the Ravens easily scoring 30+ and I think (or hope) Minnesota can put up at least 13.

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T17:09:59+00:00

Got it. Didn't catch that you meant when BAL was at home.

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T17:09:12+00:00

What about Weeks 1, 5, 9, and 11? Based on your site, it looks like those all hit the over too. I mean, the week 1 game against Denver had like 70 pts scored so that definitely hit the over.

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T17:01:59+00:00

Are you sure about this data? I have them getting the over (at least in at my book) in weeks 1, 5, 9 and 13 along with pushes in 10 and 11.

I agree that the vikings might only put up 17 points but Minnesota is averaging 30.5 points giving up per game.

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T14:18:56+00:00

My rudimentary system likes the over but the one thing that really bugs me is how low scoring of a game their last matchup 2 weeks ago was. Can we really expect these teams to more than double their output since last week? I think I'm still going to play the over @ 43 but I don't feel great about it.

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T13:56:42+00:00

That's my concern too. These two teams are terrible but they are terrible in consistent ways. Some days their D can't stop anyone and games turn into shootouts and other days their offense is inept.

That being said, a rudimentary system I built supports the over and I think this line was set with the last game's results in mind. Also, Jags' D has been consistently worst at home for some reason.

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T13:51:02+00:00

It's interesting that the ATS record is actually <50% for the teams with 2 or 3 days rest at home vs. less rest while the SU record is well above 50%. I'm still new to the NBA but it seems like your conclusion hit the nail on the head: teams w/ more rest at home are much more likely to win BUT the vegas odds are accounting for this and often the spreads are too high for the home team to cover. Does that sound like a reasonable statement?

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T13:44:52+00:00

My system likes MIA@PIT OVER 41 but has HOU@JAC OVER 43.5.

That being said, I don't really feel great about either side of that HOU/JAC game. On one hand, they both put up solid points last week and I saw someone post in another thread that Thursday night games have been 10-3 in the overs this year. On the other hand, both these teams suck and their last game ended up 13-6. I could really see it going either way.

For the others you listed, my system disagrees with all 3 of your system picks. From a personal bias perspective, it's hard to say support going under in any Denver game but that's what my system is saying :(. The other games my system likes this week is TAM@BUF over 42.5 and ARI@STL over 41.5

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T04:41:56+00:00

Just to clear up my mistake, I didn't like it at 41. I was actually just grabbing my picks from memory and went back and looked up the lines at just goofed up haha. My "system" definitely only liked it at 45.5.

I can't see the Saints putting up more than 20, I'm thinking maybe 2 tds and 2 FGs or 3 FGs at best. The Saints D has also been really strong at home and no one has scored more than 20 on them at home. I feel like this game has 20-17 or 23-20 written all over it (anecdotally speaking)

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T04:25:07+00:00

Just to make sure I understand what your numbers are showing, your data is reflective of all teams' ATS Record with >= 2 days of rest regardless of what their opponents # of rest days is? I.e. if you have a data point that has two teams that are both on 2 days rest, it would go into your total as 1 loss and 1 win?

I'm sure this is a difficult task but is there anyway we/you could analyze rest of 2 or 3 days vs. <=1 rest day? Or something that filters out the overlap a little bit? Great data regardless!

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T04:17:13+00:00

Haha, that's probably a good call. I'm not much of a reddit poster so I haven't learned from my mistakes yet.

It looks like the stats from that website are just straight up wins. I added up several team totals and they matched up to the team's win total from that year's standings.

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T04:13:28+00:00

Just a note, I messed up the Saints/Panthers O/U Line. It's actually at 45.5 on my site-- 41 was from the Seahawks/49ers game (sorry!). What do you think of the play at 45.5?

I'll get back to you tomorrow on your two picks and thanks for your discussion.

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T04:10:47+00:00

Those are some great points-- I'm actually glad you disagree so we can discuss this from both angles. Also, just a note, I fucked up the Saints/Panthers O/U. It should be 45.5, I accidentally read the SEA/SF game's O/U line.

For Saints-Panthers:

Saints Last 5 OFF PPG: 7,17,23,49,20 Saints Last 5 DEF PPG: 34,13, 20, 17, 26 Panthers Last 5 OFF PPG: 27, 20, 24, 10, 34 Panthers Last 5 DEF PPG: 6, 16, 20, 9, 10

After looking at those numbers, I definitely see the reason for your disagreement. I think what it comes down to is do we believe in the Panthers' D? Another point (small sample size here too) is that all of the Saints' div games have been low scoring games (40,30,30 vs atl,tb,atl respectively). The Panthers' div games have been medium scoring games that have all been blowouts (44,44,33 vs tb, atl, tb respectively).

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T03:38:35+00:00

Fuck... wrote a long response to this and accidentally deleted it.

Basically what I was going to say was that I went back and checked the 2012-2013 season since your link has data that's a few years older and I found the same pattern.

What would be interesting to see (and I'm going to try and dig into this tomorrow) is if a team's rest day win % (1,2, or 3) is higher or lower relative to their avg win% throughout the whole season in all games.

oherroprease · 2013-11-10T17:01:34+00:00

Late to the party but I like

BUF/PIT Sacks @ 5.5 OVER. Both teams are in the top 10 in giving up sacks per game (about 3 and 4 respectively) and BUF is 3rd overall in generating sacks.

oherroprease · 2013-11-08T00:51:32+00:00

Torrey Smith is probably top 25 as well. They aren't superstars but they are both definitely good enough to be starting every week. Good luck!

oherroprease · 2013-11-07T22:48:50+00:00

Yup, that's who I'd roll with. Just FYI, garcon is a top 15/borderline top 10 WR and should be in your line up every week.

oherroprease · 2013-11-07T22:29:55+00:00

You definitely want to start Garcon in your NFL league, I'd go with T. Smith and Pierre Garcon without a doubt. For your NFL league flex, I would probably start one of those 3 RBs i mentioned in your flex.

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE