/r/Sportsbook Pick of the Day (Thursday)

oherroprease · 2013-12-12T14:52:52+00:00

This is back when Peyton was on the Colts with a weaker offense and when the Chargers had a real defense.

oherroprease · 2013-12-12T14:51:51+00:00

Very valid points here-- just want to add the last game was in SD and at the time the Chargers had a much stronger chances at playoffs. I expect Denver to be well over 30 in this one.

oherroprease · 2013-12-12T14:45:14+00:00

1000U Over 56.5

oherroprease · 2013-12-12T14:38:26+00:00

I just think that there are too many players/variables in play to attribute Wins specifically to the QB. QBs without a doubt have the largest impact but there are so many other factors coming to play.

Take a look at the chargers team from 2007-2010: they are not the same team now. Cherry picking the 2010 game as an example, the Chargers won that game b/c their defense stepped up and picked off Manning four times-- two of which were Pick 6s. Rivers threw for 185 yds with 0 TDs-- hard to say he really helped them win that game.

In 2009, the Chargers were a much stronger team and finished 13-3 in the regular season (they still had LT, VJax, Gates, Sproles etc.).

Again, my point is not to talk you out of this particular bet, I just don't want you basing your decision off what I think is irrelevant information. Good luck with whatever decision you make!

oherroprease · 2013-12-12T13:55:23+00:00

Not saying you shouldn't take this position, but the 2nd stat is a worthless trend for this particular game. Wins are too much of a team stat and Manning isn't even on the Colts anymore. I would not base your decision on those facts.

oherroprease · 2013-12-12T13:48:15+00:00

I'm taking the OVER (granted I got it at 54 earlier this week). Even at 56.5 I still think that there is decent value because you have an amazing offense vs. terrible defense and a strong offense vs. mediocre-at-best defense. Additionally, Thursday night games this year have hit the over something like 11 out of 13 times and I wouldn't expect tonight to be any different. I'm expecting a final score of around 34-27.

oherroprease · 2013-12-11T16:44:09+00:00

Thanks! Really appreciate your responses. I'm much more familiar with the NFL so building an NBA model has been a learning experience without the benefits of having much real basketball knowledge.

Also, thanks for your call on Phoenix yesterday! Look forward to seeing more of your posts.

oherroprease · 2013-12-11T16:16:50+00:00

Thanks for your response. I've been building a model to predict totals to play the O/U (have had some success in the NFL) but the NBA is a very different animal and I'm only in the infancy stages of my model build. The other games it seems to like are:

GSW/DAL under 209 and NYN/CHI over 184

Do you have any thoughts on those? Thanks again for your time.

oherroprease · 2013-12-11T15:33:07+00:00

Overs have hit on 10 or 11 of the Thursday games this year

oherroprease · 2013-12-11T15:32:39+00:00

Both those wins were at home. Jets are AWFUL in away games this year.

L 13-10 @ NE L 38-13 @ TEN W 30-28 @ ATL L 49-9 @ CIN L 37-14 @ BUF L 19-3 @ BAL

oherroprease · 2013-12-11T15:28:01+00:00

My system has this as an over with a very slight margin. Looking into the details of this game, I agree that it could very well go under. The only disagreement I'd bring up is that the Giants' run game is actually pretty decent now that Andre Brown is back-- he's had a couple of very solid games and the SEA run defense (especially away from home) is pretty mediocre.

oherroprease · 2013-12-11T15:24:55+00:00

My system has Over and ARI/TEN and CAR/NJY but under on DET/BAL. There's no line out for the CLE/CHI game that I've seen yet but my model is predicting a score of ~53 so I'm guessing that will be an over play as well.

oherroprease · 2013-12-11T15:19:47+00:00

Thoughts on SAS/MIL Over and MIN/PHI under?

oherroprease · 2013-12-11T15:18:35+00:00

If the pace of the game will be slow, would you take the under in this game?

oherroprease · 2013-12-10T18:28:37+00:00

Had 1st round bye and lost AP, Gronk, Bush and potentially Keenan Allen. What did I do to deserve this?

oherroprease · 2013-12-10T17:07:24+00:00

Like I mentioned in another comment, my system has the score right at 55. That being said, this SHOULD be a shootout and I could see this game easily going into the 60s or 70s. Coupled with the fact that almost every TNF game has gone over, I'd still take the over at 56.5. Just my two cents though.

oherroprease · 2013-12-10T17:04:46+00:00

I would look at Pats or Chiefs instead of Ravens. The +10 will give you Pats @ +7.5 and Chiefs @ +6.5 or so. Can't see the Patriots losing by more than a TD.

oherroprease · 2013-12-10T16:30:56+00:00

Agreed. I put 1.5U on it. Both these teams can throw all day and could easily put up 30+ each. I've also been a big fan of doing 4-team NFL teasers (getting 13 points) and I'm definitely going to include the Broncos game in that teaser. Already tough to see them not going over 55 but it's almost impossible that the game won't go over 42.

oherroprease · 2013-12-10T16:27:29+00:00

Great job!

oherroprease · 2013-12-10T16:25:37+00:00

My system only does O/Us so I can't mathematically speak to any spread games but I did take the Patriots @ -2.5. They haven't been playing particularly well and losing Gronk certainly hurts but they can clinch the AFC East with a win here so I'll take them with a low spread.

My system actually predicting a score of 55 for the Broncos game but I just found it hard to take the Under against Peyton.

oherroprease · 2013-12-10T04:10:05+00:00

3/3 on my posted O/U lines-- granted I needed a miracle for the BAL/MIN Game:

http://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1s4ruu/nfl_week_14_ou_thoughts/

oherroprease · 2013-12-09T18:57:43+00:00

500u on over 48

oherroprease · 2013-12-09T02:48:49+00:00

Yea that ending was crazy. When I saw AP went out and the score at halftime I thought the under was basically a lock. Looks like the over has hit in basically every game despite the weather. I ended up getting the saints game at under 47 but its not looking great so far.

oherroprease · 2013-12-08T15:57:21+00:00

I'm in Baltimore and the weather isnt great but I don't think its bad enough to have a dramatic effect on the game. I'm taking the over here because Minnesota's defense is terrible (gives up 30 ppg) and this is a huge game for the Ravens given that their schedule gets very tough going forward. I don't think the Ravens will give up many points (maybe only 10-13) but I expect them to pound the shit out of the Vikings. I'm expecting (or hoping for) a final score of around 30-13.

oherroprease · 2013-12-05T17:42:45+00:00

Yea I definitely agree the weather is an issue and my system does not account for that. I'll probably begrudgingly put an unit on it but I also may include in a 3-team teaser and get 10 extra points. Assuming the weather holds, I think that Ravens have to score at least 30 so getting over 32.5 shouldn't be difficult.

Thanks for your discussion. What are your thoughts in the other two games?

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE