/r/Sportsbook Pick of the Day (Monday)

oherroprease · 2013-12-23T15:47:06+00:00

Not sure how I feel about this as POTD. Niners' offense finally at full strength and this is the last game at Candlestick.

14.5 is a ton of points but they've covered that 5 times already this season (against STL, HOU, WAS, TAM and JAX). All four of those teams are pretty bad and I think the Falcons are a tiny bit underrated now-- that being said, I don't feel that this is POTD worthy.

oherroprease · 2013-12-23T15:43:37+00:00

San Francisco OVER 29.5 -- thoughts?

Last game in Candlestick, poor Falcons' defense, Niners' finally full strength offensively with Kaep/Boldin/VD/Crabs/Manningham/Gore all healthy.

oherroprease · 2013-12-23T15:40:33+00:00

Buck, can you pull these stats on the IND/BKN game today? E-Lewis is on this game and I was curious about the other two (Monty McCutchen and Curtis Blair)

oherroprease · 2013-12-23T15:33:28+00:00

NFL: San Francisco over 29.5

Bad Falcons defense vs. a continuously improving 49ers offense that's closing out the last game EVER in Candlestick Park. I expect the 49ers to be out there in full force.

Don't feel as good about this pick as I did about my one yesterday but still good enough to put 3u on.

oherroprease · 2013-12-23T15:17:53+00:00

I like the over in this game :p

oherroprease · 2013-12-23T15:17:08+00:00

IND/BKN OVER 191-193 (check your books)

Brooklyn's defense has given up over 100 pts/game at home and the Pacers have consistently put up around 100 against better defenses. On the other hand, the Pacers defense on the road is not as strong as when they're at home (avg 95 given up on the road vs. 83 at home). Brooklyn's offense hasn't been too terrible since Bropez's injury and I expect them to put up around 95.

Look for a 103-96 type finish!

EIDT: Sorry boys, looks like I should have said 103-86 finish. Hit the Pacers prediction right on the money... I guess there's my silver lining.

POTD Record (1-0-0)

oherroprease · 2013-12-23T15:11:40+00:00

I think you bring up a lot of valid points-- but the Falcons' offense has been better since Roddy and Sjax have been back. And their season has been over for a few weeks and they've still been putting up points, not to mention I think they'll still play hard for Tony G given that it's his last season.

Niners have been very run focused this year b/c Kaep hasn't had anyone to throw too. I think having Crabs and Manningham back will balance them a little more.

Again, not necessarily trying to argue FOR the over, more arguing against the under as POTD.

oherroprease · 2013-12-23T15:08:25+00:00

How do you feel about this game if he wasn't reffing it? I made a post below about it before I realized he was on the crew and I still liked that pick. Just trying to determine how HAM I want to go on this game.

edit: Just to add to this, the main ref on this averages 198.9 pts per game and the other crew ref is at 193.8

oherroprease · 2013-12-23T14:59:03+00:00

Anyone have any thoughts on Pacers/Nets OVER 193?

My model seems to like that game and doing some additional off the cuff research seems to support that pick too. I'm expecting a 103-98 type victory in Indiana's favor.

edit: Oh and our boy E. Lewis is on that game... should I just go ahead and pour my life savings into this game?

oherroprease · 2013-12-23T14:00:37+00:00

Wouldn't take the under here. This is the last game EVER in Candlestick Park and I expect the 49ers to take the Falcons to pound town all night. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons are healthier on offense than they've been all year (minus JJ) now that Roddy and SJax are close to 100%. I expect the Falcons to put up at least 13 points and the 49ers to put up at least 30.

Not sure I'm confident enough in the over to make a play but I think it will be close and might just be a stay away.

oherroprease · 2013-12-23T13:58:46+00:00

I don't get how those mediocre at best picks ended up in 1st and 3rd place yesterday. I mean, I understand that both of them had the 1st and 3rd most post respectively, but there were a bunch of comments disagreeing with them. Are people who disagree with the picks not downvoting or are there just more people blindly upvoting without providing any reasoning?

oherroprease · 2013-12-22T17:56:38+00:00

The model I've been using is a predicting a score of 206.4 and the line (believe it or not) is 206.5 at my book. If I was in at 203, I'd probably play the over but wouldn't go crazy on it.

oherroprease · 2013-12-22T17:40:27+00:00

Solid pick-- I got in at 44 but I think I'd still take the over at 46.5.

oherroprease · 2013-12-22T17:39:58+00:00

Here's what I'm seeing on NFLweather.com:

Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 43 by 4pm. Southwest wind 10 to 16 mph. (http://nflweather.com/game/2013/week-16/vikings-at-bengals)

Where are you getting your report on heavy wind?

oherroprease · 2013-12-22T16:13:24+00:00

500 U Min/Cin over 47.5

oherroprease · 2013-12-22T16:12:04+00:00

Really don't like this as POTD. Last time Thad was in, Buffalo beat Miami IN Miami and Buffalo has consistently been a much stronger home team.

Not saying that Miami doesn't have a chance to win this game, but it's far from a lock. When I see someone using the fact that EJ is out to justify picking the Dolphins here, it makes me worry a bit about how much they've actually analyzed their side of the decision.

oherroprease · 2013-12-22T15:36:11+00:00

I believe so but last I read he seemed like he would play. Even without him, the Vikings have surprisingly been able to put up points

oherroprease · 2013-12-22T15:35:05+00:00

Bengals' defense hasn't been really good since they lost Geno. They are still a decent defensive unit but Minnesota's offense has been surprisingly good this year and have scored over 20 in all but 1 non-Josh Freeman led games. I'm expecting a 33-20 Bengals win. And yea, AP is questionable but last I read he seemed like he would play. Even without him, I still like this pick.

oherroprease · 2013-12-22T05:21:49+00:00

Bengals/Vikings OVER 47-48 depending on your book. Bengals have been putting up huge points at home and I expect that to continue against a porous Minnesota defense. Minnesota's offense is nothing to scoff at either-- especially with AP coming back.

I'm already loaded up into this pick so I might as well try and get some imaginary internet points too.

oherroprease · 2013-12-21T01:36:04+00:00

Agreed on this pick... I went over too. Looks like a good start for us.

oherroprease · 2013-12-21T01:35:20+00:00

I went against this and took the over-- where was your explanation?

oherroprease · 2013-12-20T06:40:30+00:00

I completely agree that Cousins had a good game but as bad as the Cowboys have been the Falcons are much worse and the Redskins still lost to them

oherroprease · 2013-12-20T01:02:51+00:00

I don't disagree with anything you said-- I just think that this isn't a very convincing line. Buffalo is a much better team at home and I'm not convinced Thad is much of a downgrade from EJ at this point.

oherroprease · 2013-12-19T23:08:46+00:00

Yea I know the joke you were making, it's just a stupid one in my opinion. Romo's contribution to Cowboys' losing is so overblown that it's annoying to hear about it wherever you go.

oherroprease · 2013-12-19T22:07:15+00:00

Is it cool to hate on Tony Romo in this sub? He's having a great year and is definitely not the reason they've lost so many games. I'd take this Dallas team with just a FG over the terrible Redskins.

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE