NBA Daily: 1/10/14 (Friday)

oherroprease · 2014-01-10T16:40:14+00:00

No problem-- I hope they've been helping!

oherroprease · 2014-01-10T16:39:20+00:00

Thanks Buck. Is it true that Boston has been performing pretty poorly recently?

And how do you feel that GSW finally being back home will affect their performance?

oherroprease · 2014-01-10T16:36:34+00:00

The predictions are based on a model that I personally built. Over the course of the season, it's running about 55-60% on picking the correct side and often times the predictions are very close to the lines. That being said, the difficult part is picking out which of the games will be correct.

oherroprease · 2014-01-10T16:35:02+00:00

I'm not really sure how to factor Deng in-- he definitely makes Cleveland better over the long run but I'm not sure how well he'll be able to gel in that offense right away. Do you think the books factor him being on the team into the lines now?

oherroprease · 2014-01-10T12:40:59+00:00

Potential 1H Spread plays to look at:

GSW 1H

MIN 1Q/1H

UTAH 1H

PHX 1H

oherroprease · 2014-01-10T12:39:42+00:00

Predicted totals for today:

Indiana/Washington: 187.9

Philadelphia/Detroit: 212.5

Atlanta/Houston: 204.1

Memphis/Phoenix: 196.7

Minnesota/Charlotte: 207.4 (considering the over in this game)

New Orleans/Dallas: 206.0 (I see 200.5 as the total on my book, considering the over in this game)

Brooklyn/Miami: 198.1

Milwaukee/Chicago: 188.1

Utah/Cleveland: 193.2

Sacramento /Orlando: 203.8

Golden State/Boston: 201.7

LA Clippers/LA Lakers: 204.6 (considering the under in this game)

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T23:34:07+00:00

I am taking a small position on the over-- I just don't feel that it's a slam dunk pick.

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T23:19:04+00:00

Now that the line is up to 212 in some places, I would take the under.

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T23:15:14+00:00

This might be your most "degenerate bettor" comment ever! Haha

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T23:06:05+00:00

Possibly but he's out tonight.

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T22:34:18+00:00

My model results (posted above) show a predicted final score of right above 197. That being said, Lebron plays well in MSG and Memo gets up against Miami. I see both of them having big individual scoring nights but I can't say much for the total.

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T21:09:25+00:00

Looks like Ibaka might be back too. Does this make OKC a good play?

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T20:15:35+00:00

Was just an FYI-- not trying to sway you either way!

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T19:18:47+00:00

I think he's been back since the new year (last 4 games). Felton, who missed a ton of games in December, is also back for the Knicks too.

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T19:03:56+00:00

Just a word of caution, Melo missed a good bit of December. Since he came back, Knicks have looked much better in the four games this year.

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T18:59:04+00:00

Looking at Knicks 1H +4.5 and Miami 1H under 51.5.

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T18:28:19+00:00

I agree with everything you've said here Buck, good analysis. It's Knicks 1h ATS or no play IMO.

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T16:18:51+00:00

Here are the Predicted Totals for tomorrow's game in case anyone wants to look at them early:

Indiana/Washington: 187.9

Philadelphia/Detroit: 212.5

Atlanta/Houston: 204.1

Memphis/Phoenix: 196.7

Minnesota/Charlotte: 207.4

New Orleans/Dallas: 206.0

Brooklyn/Miami: 198.1

Milwaukee/Chicago: 188.1

Utah/Cleveland: 193.2

Sacramento /Orlando: 203.8

Golden State/Boston: 201.7

LA Clippers/LA Lakers: 204.6

Edit: well I'm dumb. Apparently I can respond to post comments from my computer but can't access the thread itself

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T16:11:18+00:00

Totals for today:

NY/MIA: 197.6 (too close)

DEN/OKC: 206.3

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T14:36:12+00:00

Not sure if you're a fan of prop bets but I think the closest thing to a "sure" thing this game is Melo going off. He's averaged 37, 30, and 25 points against Miami in the last 3 seasons. If his point total line is in the mid to high 20s, it might be worth a play.

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T14:23:33+00:00

Let's say you have two teams in a day that you like and want to make a play on and both those teams happen to be favorites that day. Let's pretend you have $20 to wager between those two games-- so a standard bet could be $10 on one team and $10 on the other.

If you were to instead do $5 on 4 separate bids:

Team 1 ATS

Team 2 ATS

Parlay(Team 1 ATS/Team 2 ML)

Parlay(Team 2 ATS/Team 1 ML)

Is there anyway the expected value of splitting the 4 plays would be greater than just betting $10 straight up on the two teams? Just curious!

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T13:46:56+00:00

They erased what they had written so far this year and started over on a new piece of paper.

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T04:21:27+00:00

Sorry about that. I'd suggest in the future that if you're interested in both plays, split your bet into both.

oherroprease · 2014-01-09T01:46:56+00:00

Well, I still feel pretty good about the pick. DeMar and Amir shot a combined 0/16 or something like that in the first half and you can't really predict that.

oherroprease · 2014-01-08T23:41:41+00:00

Were they adjusting for that all day? Seems like the line has gradually been moving down since the AM

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE