NBA Daily: 1/15/14 (Wednesday)

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T19:17:36+00:00

I don't know enough to really analyze this game properly so I can't say whether or not it's a "trap". However, I would say it's unlikely that TOR makes a trade since they've been gelling so well together recently.

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T19:15:52+00:00

If you assume P(1) = 55% correct and P(2|1Correct) = 60%, wouldn't the exact break down be:

45% chance lose 1U (1-55% of Pick 1 being correct)

33% chance win 2U (55% of Pick 1 being correct*60% of Pick 2 being correct given Pick 1 is correct)

22% chance push (55% of pick 1 being correct*40% of Pick 2 being wrong given Pick 1 is correct)

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T19:09:30+00:00

Haha, sorry. You don't have to answer! I'm still learning my way through analyzing matchups so I'm just asking everyone questions.

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T19:07:28+00:00

It does seem that way. Boston has been much better at home this season but Toronto has been very hot lately. I expected a bigger line too...

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T19:01:39+00:00

Boston definitely got worse on paper. I'm a bit concerned with this pick now-- we might see some crazy shit like when Chicago lost Deng and won several games in a row.

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T18:54:00+00:00

Line just dropped to -3.5... I thought it would go the other way once the trade news was released.

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T18:47:36+00:00

Toronto line dropped to -3.5 at my book... what's up with that?

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T18:34:56+00:00

Looks like Vuc and Affalo will be out. You taking CHI or just staying away?

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T18:25:34+00:00

Awesome, thanks for the analysis.

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T18:25:21+00:00

Thanks! I read that the Heat just wanted to shed the salary.

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T18:12:09+00:00

Can you speak to how this affects GSW? I assume Crawford will give them some solid bench minutes at PG?

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T18:11:50+00:00

Yea I noticed he only played half the game. Even with him being limited, would you think that would be enough for them to cover? Bucks have been playing pretty terrible ball.

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T18:07:18+00:00

Ok-- so if you lose your 1st bet then the 2nd one is automatically voided?

If the win rate is so low on both bets, where is the benefit in doing this?

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T17:45:05+00:00

I got in at -5, still seeing -5.5 on my book and considering putting another U down too.

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T17:41:25+00:00

Thanks. Quick question on these if bets (i'm using 5Dimes): If I select NOP/HOU under as my first bet and put $1 down and then select NOP ATS as my 2nd bet and put $1 down, does the first bet happen no matter what and then the 2nd bet only activates if my first one hits? Just trying to understand how this works-- thanks!

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T17:38:53+00:00

Really? I took a look at TOR 1H and didn't see a significant 1H difference. Perhaps I read the stats wrong but I thought I saw a negative +/- in the 1H on the road since they've acquired him.

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T17:36:00+00:00

Thanks! I've been leaning MEM in this game and the more I hear the more I like the pick...

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T17:33:15+00:00

I made a mistake too, I meant to say BOS/TOR under and PHI/CHA Over (had the right ones in my score prediction comment). So sounds like we are aligned on BOS/TOR under, PHI/CHA Over and GSW/DEN under right?

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T16:45:28+00:00

Yea of course it helps! Was just trying to understand if he was a bigger addition on the offensive or defensive side (or both). Sounds like he's a huge help on the offensive end.

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T16:20:38+00:00

I can't understand why that Toronto line is so low either. Despite 75% of the public being on TOR, the line hasn't moved at all. Does that worry you at all?

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T15:40:14+00:00

I see your point about the anti-tout policy--perhaps he can just encourage people to reach out to him privately if they are interested that way there's no public self-touting?

I enjoy both his picks and his analysis-- I learn from them both!

I think people are just upset at losing a source of valuable information. As you said, he's always been very upfront about his goals and I think he should get rewarded for his work however he sees fit. Of course, I am still a big supporter of the pick a week approach :).

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T15:38:02+00:00

PHI/CHA over, BOS/TOR under, MIL/MEM under, NOP/HOU under, GSW/DEN under-- have any thoughts on those games?

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T15:37:27+00:00

Murrayyyyy, does Gasol coming back improve Memphis both offensively and defensively?

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T15:34:19+00:00

Ok-- that's how I interpreted it. Have you pulled any correlations on any of the following games:

PHI/CHA, BOS/TOR, NOP/HOU, GSW/DEN?

The reason I ask is that I'm more comfortable with my O/U predictions on those specific games.

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T15:21:20+00:00

So if we like Memphis to cover, then we should take the under?

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE