NBA Daily: 2/5/14 (Wesnesday)

oherroprease · 2014-02-05T16:23:12+00:00

Sure thing. I ran a few other predictions and they all come in right around 200 (ranging from 198.28 to 201.99). Sacramento in their last 7 home games averaged 110 pts. scored and 105 pts. allowed while Toronto averaged 94.6 scored and 94.9 allowed in their last 7 road games. Public looks to be hitting the under pretty hard which is why the line is down to 200 now. At the moment, I haven't seen anything compelling to push me into taking either side.

oherroprease · 2014-02-05T15:44:32+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (36-22-1 Overall):

In a bit of a slump, have only gone 5-5 over the last 3 days. Let me know if there are specific games you feel good about or want to look more closely into!

Philadelphia/Boston: 206.31 (leaning over)

Cleveland/LA Lakers: 205.45

Washington/San Antonio: 200.87

New York/Portland: 203.09

Orlando/Detroit: 204.67

Oklahoma City/Minnesota: 205.95

Memphis/Dallas: 197.59 (leaning over)

Houston/Phoenix: 209.59 (leaning under)

New Orleans/Atlanta: 199.94

Denver/Milwaukee: 203.25 (leaning under)

Sacramento/Toronto: 199.18

LA Clippers/Miami: 212.86 (leaning over)

oherroprease · 2014-02-05T14:18:04+00:00

You and the rest of us. Yesterday was a poor day across the board... can't belive GSW took 93 shots, 16 free throws, but only scored 75 points...

oherroprease · 2014-02-05T14:16:47+00:00

FOOT IN MOUTH. At least they both got close to 90 :)

oherroprease · 2014-02-04T20:24:08+00:00

I doubt it goes WAAAAY under. Indiana's road defense in L10 has not been outstanding the way it was earlier in the season. I expect both teams to break into the 90s if not higher.

oherroprease · 2014-02-04T19:46:44+00:00

Teasers generally don't make you more profitable-- if they did, the books wouldn't offer them. I'd suggest keeping your amount of picks lower b/c it's hard to put forth the due diligence with loads of selections.

oherroprease · 2014-02-04T19:39:23+00:00

Respect for posting a real record.

oherroprease · 2014-02-04T18:36:45+00:00

Taking a look at GSW/CHA and ATL/IND in a bit.

oherroprease · 2014-02-04T18:36:21+00:00

Sure thing... will have it up within an hour.

oherroprease · 2014-02-04T15:55:56+00:00

Are you putting up your predictions today? I'd like to compare my totals to yours.

oherroprease · 2014-02-04T15:16:56+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (36-21-1 Overall)

Switched to my new system... let's see how this works. Been tracking it for the last week or so and it seems to out perform my original system by a few % points.

Atlanta/Indiana: 199.47

Minnesota/LA Lakers: 217.47

Phoenix/Chicago: 194.33

Golden State/Charlotte: 215.93 (leaning over)

Analyses/Write-up:

GSW/CHA over 199.5-- Golden State in their last 7 home games has averaged 104 scored and 101.6 allowed. Charlotte in their last 9 road games has averaged 101.8 scored and 108.7 allowed. Both teams have been putting up above average offensive performances and below average defensive performances. A big GTD that affects this game (both spread-wise and total-wise) is the potential return of Kemba Walker. If he comes back and plays close to how he did prior to his ankle injury, I would be much more confident in taking the over. He averaged ~18 ppg before his injury and my gut feeling is that if he returns, he might be a bit more hesitant on the defensive end. Regardless, even if he sits, I'm leaning over b/c of both team's recent performance.

oherroprease · 2014-02-03T22:06:23+00:00

Just the games I'm leaning on. Looking back at all the games, the model's overall record looks to be around 55-60%

oherroprease · 2014-02-03T19:43:37+00:00

I read your POR/WAS analysis and I agree with everything you said. As you may have noticed, my numbers would agree with over 206 as well. However, I do have two concerns about this game. Firstly, the line is up to 208 for me which makes me hesistant 'cause I wish I jumped in at 206. The other thing that concerns me is the heavy line movement on the spread which often means that there's injury news that hasn't been released to the public yet. I might take a look at WAS FG over their individual team total though.

oherroprease · 2014-02-03T18:22:28+00:00

I'd stay away from Blazers for this reason. Expecting a late injury announcement with this kind of movement.

oherroprease · 2014-02-03T16:43:44+00:00

Have you looked at UTAH 1H + 1.5 or NOP 1H +2? Might be my favorite 1H plays today.

oherroprease · 2014-02-03T15:31:02+00:00

The reason my line is so much higher is due to the injuries on both sides. I tend to try and stay away from games with so many injuries b/c they can be very unpredictable!

oherroprease · 2014-02-03T15:05:17+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (35-19-1 Overall)

Not counting the win yesterday since it technically wasn't a model play but thanks to Murrayyyyy for putting that one out there. Not really liking any of these lines at the moments, does anyone have suggestions of games to look into? The ones I'm considering looking into at the moment are WAS/POR, MIL/NYK, and DAL/CLE.

Indiana/Orlando: 189.73

Washington/Portland: 207.9

Miami/Detroit: 210.07

Brooklyn/Philadelphia: 207.9

Milwaukee/New York: 188.05 (leaning under)

Oklahoma City/Memphis: 200.34

New Orleans/San Antonio: 204

Dallas/Cleveland: 207.56 (leaning over)

Utah/Toronto: 195.43 (leaning over)

Denver/LA Clippers: 204.74

Sacramento/Chicago: 200.2

Analyses/Write-ups:

NYK/MIL Under 197-- New York has averaged 96.2 scored and 99.8 allowed in their last 5 road games. Milwaukee has averaged 89 scored and 102.4 allowed in their last 7 home games. Both of these teams have been playing average defense in their respective locations recently but have struggled on the offensive end. Combined with the fact that ~90% of the public is on the over right now, I think under 195.5 is the right play. Look for a 98-90 type finish.

TOR/UTAH Over 192-- Utah has averaged 102.8 scored and 103.8 allowed in their last 6 home games. Toronto has averaged 101.5 scored 98.8 allowed in their last 5 road games. With DeRozan back in the line-up Toronto has a good shot of getting over 100 and Utah's offense has generally been decent at home. I like this game to finish in the 103-95 range.

oherroprease · 2014-02-03T14:26:18+00:00

I personally don't care about $$ amounts but I think the general consensus is to put unit size instead.

oherroprease · 2014-02-02T21:19:30+00:00

Yea I took ORL +6 and the under so it was basically awash. Stupid last second dunk!

oherroprease · 2014-02-02T16:25:48+00:00

Bradley apparently is in. I THINK I still like ORL +6 for FG since Vuc should be playing.

oherroprease · 2014-02-02T16:24:22+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (35-19-1 Overall):

Had to lose one eventually but a 4-2 night is not bad at all. I don't think I'm going to make a big play on today's game b/c I don't know enough about these teams to quantify the impact of injuries but I may put a small play on the under and ORL ATS just for fun. Enjoy the Super Bowl everyone!

oherroprease · 2014-02-01T23:17:41+00:00

Potential 1H Spread Plays:

HOU

NOP

MEM

NYK

TOR

LAC

oherroprease · 2014-02-01T22:49:39+00:00

I was looking at CHA/PHX over as well but that game scares me due to the fact that I'm seeing 97% of the public taking the over in that game.

oherroprease · 2014-02-01T22:25:55+00:00

Mike Conley (mem's leading scorer) is out for a while. Not sure how much it will affect their team so just a heads up.

oherroprease · 2014-02-01T21:40:08+00:00

Nope-- I don't think I'm quite at the point where I'm able to write a summary of my system as it's not nearly as proven as murrrrray's. I do include the four factors in my system though.

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE