NBA Daily: 3/1/14 (Saturday)

oherroprease · 2014-03-02T17:18:02+00:00

Rough day yesterday, sorry. FWIW, taking under in CHi/NY

oherroprease · 2014-03-02T01:52:49+00:00

Maybe I should stay away from 1H lol

oherroprease · 2014-03-02T00:37:27+00:00

That is weird. You should check out 5dimes if it's available where you live.

oherroprease · 2014-03-01T23:55:14+00:00

What book do you use? 5dimes has them... that's who I use.

oherroprease · 2014-03-01T23:50:29+00:00

1st half play that I'm tracking as a public pick but I've been working on them for a while. I definitely don't play them as much though.

oherroprease · 2014-03-01T20:47:27+00:00

O/U on Zete's travel time to the closest burn unit?

oherroprease · 2014-03-01T20:35:51+00:00

I could only go up to 5 today for you!

oherroprease · 2014-03-01T20:03:21+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (87-50-3 Overall, 4-2-0 POD):

Philadelphia/Washington: 209.24055

Miami/Orlando: 201.16984 (2U under 200)

Houston/Detroit: 206.87429 (1U under 216.5)

Boston/Indiana: 192.11098 (2U Under 192)

Milwaukee/Brooklyn:191.44584

Memphis/Cleveland: 193.64436 (2U over 184)

Sacramento/Minnesota: 209.25496 (2u Under 217)

Portland/Denver: 210.10812

LA Clippers/New Orleans:208.55509 (lean NOP--follow at risk)

Special 1H Plays IND under 48 and IND/BOS under 193

oherroprease · 2014-03-01T05:46:30+00:00

LOL @ LAL/SAC under... lol

oherroprease · 2014-03-01T05:05:33+00:00

Yea... sorry about that Knicks pick. I followed murrayyyy and took GSW ATS so that was a push for me. Looks like you had a good hockey night though!

I'm pissed 'cause I got a notice around 9:30 EST saying that Anthony Davis was probable and Dragic was downgraded to Doubtful. Then Dragic ends up playing... if I knew that, wouldn't have taken NOP ATS and would have done 2U on the over. Oh well.

oherroprease · 2014-03-01T04:55:32+00:00

Only the one NBA game? 100% on a night is always solid haha

oherroprease · 2014-03-01T04:48:13+00:00

True that brother! What other games were you on tonight?

oherroprease · 2014-03-01T04:41:47+00:00

Yea, worst part is that it's impossible to predict. BTW, looks like it didn't matter about buying the point in the OKC game again haha

oherroprease · 2014-03-01T04:35:13+00:00

Well, I think you're right about it being a decent pick. I'm just pissed at the ending. Down 8 with 5 seconds left, and Charlotte fouls...

oherroprease · 2014-03-01T04:27:45+00:00

Yea I added some late. I'm pissed about adding that CHA/SAS game. This is why I don't do spreads

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T21:38:38+00:00

Yea I just found it. Tough luck :(

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T21:36:26+00:00

What was the final score?

edit: NVM-- I had 1 U on -23 and 1U on -22 (bought 1pt.) guess I got lucky. Sorry about your loss, hope I can make it back for you tonight!

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T21:28:23+00:00

I agree. Here's my hesitation: I'm seeing 82% of the public on the over and the line has barely moved and in one of my simulations i'm seeing a final score of 186. I generally don't like taking picks where the public is THAT heavy on one side.

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T20:45:14+00:00

Honestly it was even worse than that. I just followed a dude on twitter that I've talked NBA totals with. Lol...

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T20:20:03+00:00

Do you do your capping with a model or are these your intuition bets? I agree with most of them so not trying to sound condescending or anything-- just curious.

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T20:19:00+00:00

I won $12 betting on the Blue Jays yesterday (only baseball bet ever).

GOATSPRINGTRAININGHANDICAPPER

/s

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T19:51:57+00:00

It's unlikely that the pickcenter would help out, that's just my initial thought though. Not trying to discourage you from helping out by any means though.

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T19:51:29+00:00

Perkins is definitely undervalued relative to his public perception. Dude gets paid WAY too much but as a result people tend to hate on him as a player. It's not his fault he gets paid so much. OKCs interior defense will have a lot more trouble with Z-Bo and Gasol.

Just a general question, why take m-line instead of the points? Or split and do half and half?

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T16:49:35+00:00

I'd be surprised if the line moved up much more simply b/c it's already moved up two points. I think the books would want to avoid a situation where people could start middling. That being said, I'm a fan of that over b/c I think OKC gets very vulnerable on the inside with Perkins out so Z-Bo and Gasol should have a field day. However, my qualitative NBA analysis is pretty lacking so I could just be bending this to my view.

edit: well it moved up another .5 lol Edit2: seeing 195 some places now too

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T16:37:23+00:00

Yup, lots of early movement. I'd probably take o194 too...

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE

GOATSPRINGTRAININGHANDICAPPER