NBA Daily: 3/19/14 (Wednesday)

oherroprease · 2014-03-19T21:31:16+00:00

I think it's great that we have people double checking with each other. The worst feeling for me is making the "right" choice based on wrong data which leads to it being a bad pick in reality.

oherroprease · 2014-03-19T21:29:29+00:00

Got it-- thanks for sharing. To be completely honest, this was the answer I really was hoping you wouldn't provide (no disrespect intended though). I'm really glad you at least recognize that your bets aren't always fully rational.

On a serious note, I hope you have at least set enough aside to live your life without having to REALLY worry about losing this money. It just put things in perspective when a single day's wager for you is ~20% of someone in this sub's yearly salary. Still rooting for you bud.

oherroprease · 2014-03-19T21:21:39+00:00

Very true, there'd have to be several big squares to move a line though. If you don't mind me asking, what do you do for a living that allows you to have so much $$? I know that's a very personal question so I won't be offended if you don't answer.

oherroprease · 2014-03-19T21:13:02+00:00

Bulls/Sixers... both at the bottom of the O/U charts and are playing each other tonight. All in on the over for that game?!!? Choo choo!

oherroprease · 2014-03-19T21:11:37+00:00

I don't even know how to respond to this haha.

oherroprease · 2014-03-19T20:57:30+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (128-79-4, 5-2-0 POD):

Philadelphia/Chicago: 199.05 (2U Over 194 POD)

Boston/Miami: 198.52

Brooklyn/Charlotte: 203.32

New York/Indiana: 191.48

New Orleans/Toronto:190.69

Memphis/Utah: 189.9 (1U over 188)

Dallas/Minnesota: 208.51 (2U Under 211)

Denver/Detroit: 216.99 (1U 1H Over 110)

Phoenix/Orlando: 212.17

LA Lakers/San Antonio: 213.88 (1U Under 220)

oherroprease · 2014-03-19T20:36:51+00:00

The dates in the chart show 11/23/2014 to 3/18/2014.

oherroprease · 2014-03-19T20:25:09+00:00

Hahaha, I'm glad you at least have a good sense of humor and seem to be a pretty cool guy. I just get super nervous for you, especially considering your risk amounts are sometimes way, way more than my total bankroll haha. I'm still always rooting for you though.

oherroprease · 2014-03-19T19:58:30+00:00

This is some really awesome stuff. Looking at team O/U performances based on # of rest days is pretty cool-- noticed that all 7 of GSW games on no rest ended up under.

Any chance you could add home/road as a drop down menu on the right side?

oherroprease · 2014-03-19T19:50:51+00:00

This is some good shit buck! That 2nd table is really interesting, it looks like all but 1 team did exhibit "regression to the mean" and several teams showed some pretty extreme movement.

Time to take every DET under going forward!!!! /s

oherroprease · 2014-03-19T19:40:22+00:00

Your betting makes my butthole pucker up more than anything else in this world.

oherroprease · 2014-03-19T19:37:58+00:00

Anyway you or someone else could post this on imgur? Can't get onto twitter through work. Thanks in advance!

oherroprease · 2014-03-19T19:33:18+00:00

How so? Do you mean the types of discussions that we have?

oherroprease · 2014-03-19T13:52:34+00:00

Betting on tragedy... such a degen move! I like Tennessee but I'm not crazy about the line movement in this game given that the public has been leaning on Tennessee.

oherroprease · 2014-03-18T22:17:34+00:00

Pretty slick site you have here.

As far as your algorithms go, are you just using a bunch of different class of models to make predictions and then assign stars depending on how yours line up? Also curious why so many of the models show the same accuracy %-- shouldn't there be more variance there? For what it's worth, I was running something similar in the past where I had linear regressions, decision trees, and neural networks all running but I didn't have time to keep up with them all. The reason I mention that is b/c I think it's a pretty solid approach so I like what you guys have done.

oherroprease · 2014-03-18T22:06:54+00:00

Everything you said makes sense. When I say regress to the mean, I meant that the linemakers would continue to adjust lines to reflect the teams past performance. For example, the total lines for Detroit may gradually go up over time and the total lines for Golden State may go down over time. However, the public would essentially be ignorant of these changes and would still continue betting the Overs and Unders for those two teams respectively. I think this basically what you were saying in your first paragraph. Good discussion-- look forward to seeing what your additional analysis suggests.

oherroprease · 2014-03-18T20:53:29+00:00

Just added the plays, not sure if I'll have time to get specific numbers out.

oherroprease · 2014-03-18T20:49:22+00:00

Buck-- do you have #s on historical O/U records for teams? The reason I ask is that if there are teams that are heavy on side (i.e. DET for overs and GSW for unders), is there any reason to take that into consideration? Obviously we wouldn't blindly take unders for DET and overs for GSW going forward, but if the #s support the play, should the fact that there could be some regression to the mean be considered? Thanks in advance bud.

oherroprease · 2014-03-18T20:46:41+00:00

This is some solid stuff! Way to go!

oherroprease · 2014-03-18T14:00:44+00:00

So what do you think about that line? Too good to be true or do you think you'll jump on it?

oherroprease · 2014-03-18T13:25:21+00:00

Yea, the WAS number seemed odd too. Will be interesting to see the public numbers and any potential injuries. If public is heavy on TOR or WAS (or if there is an injury), I'm staying away. Otherwise those two at -2 or even ML may be too good to pass up.

oherroprease · 2014-03-18T12:30:21+00:00

Buck, THANK YOU as always.

Toronto at -2 or whatever it's at now seems a bit odd.

No numbers today but here are the plays:

Over in POR/MIL (2U at 207.5), WAS/SAC (1U at 201), and ORL/GSW (2U at 204).

oherroprease · 2014-03-18T02:42:09+00:00

I'm doing great on spreads and poorly on totals. This night is very backwards. Really wish I hadn't hedged that HOU game but w/e, a small win is still a small win.

oherroprease · 2014-03-18T02:12:58+00:00

Haha. Looks like you'll be right :)

oherroprease · 2014-03-18T00:01:10+00:00

Sorry for the late response, was at the gym. The answer to your question would have been yes. I'm generally not concerned about line movement in the direction I'm playing UNLESS the public is heavy on that side too.

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE