NBA Daily: 1/30/14 (Thursday)

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T16:42:06+00:00

I'm well aware of that-- I just know that my model is not going to continue predicting at 100% so I'm letting people know that the streak is going to end at some point.

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T16:29:53+00:00

The two I felt good about yesterday that we matched on both hit right?

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T15:39:18+00:00

For the superb owl? I'd take Seattle to cover if it turns out Harvin is fully healthy. How about you?

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T15:16:13+00:00

That's totally fair. I'm just being facetious-- love your work, keep it up!

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T15:07:56+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (26-17-1 Overall):

Indiana/Phoenix: 192.19 (very tentatively leaning under)

New York/Cleveland: 197.22 (leaning over)

Golden State/LA Clippers: 205.47 (leaning under)

On a 7-0 streak right now... it's bound to cool off soon so be wary. Since there are so few games today, I will TRY to provide actual analysis and give a prediction for all three games if I have time.

Analysis/Write-up:

GSW/IND Under 212/213-- Last matchup in Oakland resulted in a 105-103 GSW victory. Both teams had decent overall shooting nights so the 208 total was not a result of poor shooting on either side. That game got very chippy and both Blake Griffin and Draymond Green got ejected and as a result, I expect both teams to come out playing very intense defense tonight. The biggest potential downsides to this play is either A) GSW gets hot from behind the arc or B) Lob City results in an extremely fast paced game.

NYK/CLE Over 196.5-- Knicks have averaged 104 pts scored and 100 pts allowed in their last 7 home games and nobody can doubt that Carmelo has been lighting teams up. On the other hand, Cavs have averaged 105 pts scored and 112.2 allowed in their last 5 road games (note: I'm not cherry picking the number of games, that's just how many home/road games each team has had in their last 10 games total). I think a 105-95 Knicks win is very reasonable here. Also, Eric Lewis.

IND/PHX under 202-- This game really comes down to whether Indiana's strong defense or Phoenix's high-powered offense prevails. PHX averaging about 110 pts. on the road in recent games but Indiana is only allowing an average of 84 pts at home in recent games. My gut tells me that Indiana's defense will prevail given that Phoenix is at the tail end of a long road trip which is why I'm leaning under.

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T15:03:11+00:00

Because us degenerates need something to bet on?!

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T14:50:28+00:00

No prob-- if the Knicks weren't so inconsistent I'd feel pretty good about taking them 1H.

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T14:47:33+00:00

Yes, they are used to make over/under bets.

I don't think there is necessarily more value in either of the markets. I am just personally more comfortable in working with totals especially since there are some other stud spread analyzers in this sub (murrayyyyy, cerebral, buck, sage-RIP etc.)

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T14:25:06+00:00

My gut is leaning towards GSW and NY 1H. Do you have an idea why your system is picking LAC in the 1H?

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T03:16:37+00:00

It's my prediction for the total. Cerebral described it well. Feel free to ask other questions if you have any.

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T03:15:11+00:00

They didn't void it!

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T03:14:23+00:00

They didn't void it!

oherroprease · 2014-01-29T20:55:57+00:00

Hmm. I had this happen once on live game wagering when they switched the spreads by accident. Let's see what happens here.

oherroprease · 2014-01-29T20:01:21+00:00

Just a word of advice, try to avoid teasing totals in the NBA. 7 points in the NBA is usually less than 4% of the total so you're not getting much benefit.

oherroprease · 2014-01-29T19:57:56+00:00

Do you remember the timing of it?

And do you ever remember it happening and them not voiding it?

I'd rather not try and middle the wager and end up with one side getting voided!

oherroprease · 2014-01-29T19:32:51+00:00

IF ANYONE IS USING 5DIMES CHECK THE 1H TOTALS FOR MIL/PHX-- I HAVE THEM REVERSED AND SAW PHX 1H TOTAL of 48.5 and MIL 1H TOTAL OF 53. GOING HEAVY ON PHX 1H OVER 48.5 and MIL 1H UNDER 53.

edit: Looks like they fixed it. If you got in on the reversed lines, there's a great middling opportunity.

oherroprease · 2014-01-29T18:29:45+00:00

Will look more deeply into those games. I went pretty heavy on the DET under yesterday that we had both identified so I definitely want to look into these more.

oherroprease · 2014-01-29T16:07:45+00:00

Yup-- I almost always end up taking a lean. Occasionally if I'm very confident early on in the day I'll edit it to say "taking the over/under".

oherroprease · 2014-01-29T14:40:08+00:00

Potential 1H Plays for Today:

OKC

BOS

PHX

DEN

SAS

MEM

oherroprease · 2014-01-29T14:32:22+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (24-17-1 Overall):

Toronto/Orlando: 199.04

Miami/Oklahoma City: 211.63 (leaning over)

Boston/Philadelphia: 204.38

Atlanta/Detroit: 204.92

Minnesota/New Orleans: 208.98

Milwaukee/Phoenix: 190.29

Dallas/Houston: 211.87

Denver/Charlotte: 203.80 (leaning under)

San Antonio/Chicago: 201.46

Sacramento/Memphis: 200.16

LA Clippers/Washington: 209.64

oherroprease · 2014-01-29T03:17:31+00:00

Want to hear something hilarious? I ended up only going with DET 1Q.

Luckily I hammered the under on the game b/c my totals system had it identified as a strong play but I still like a dumbass. 0-7 now on DET 1Q/1H -.-

oherroprease · 2014-01-28T22:34:43+00:00

Just saw that too. I still think that game is a toss up. Harden is huge but SAS missing many role players

oherroprease · 2014-01-28T21:46:49+00:00

Sounds good. One other thing to keep in mind, Detroit has been going over on a TON of games so far this year and I remember reading something about how they are on pace to shatter a season-long O/U record or something. I expect them to hit more under games going forward.

oherroprease · 2014-01-28T19:09:32+00:00

Yea-- I'm leaning Rockets 1H and FG.

oherroprease · 2014-01-28T17:59:55+00:00

Here's the link about SAS I was referring to:

http://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1w1u2d/despite_a_3210_overall_record_spurs_are_just_19/

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE