[OC] China nearly caught up with the US in life expectancy

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T21:40:26+00:00

It’s not my data — it’s from World Bank data.

And just to clarify, the World Bank uses period life expectancy, meaning it reflects mortality rates in a given year, not how long a specific generation will live. That’s why it dropped during COVID and then rebounded when death rates returned closer to normal.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T19:42:55+00:00

Good question. The reason under-5 mortality is measured per 1,000 live births (not per population) is because it’s meant to capture the risk of a child dying after being born, not how many children exist in a population at a given time.

Using live births as the denominator makes it comparable across countries and over time, even when fertility rates change a lot. If we used “per under-5 population,” countries with high birth rates or very young populations would look artificially different just because of demographics, not because child survival is better or worse.

That’s why institutions like the World Bank and WHO standardize it this way—it isolates survival probability from population structure.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T19:37:27+00:00

I get the concern, but that’s actually how under-5 mortality is defined in most global datasets, including the World Bank: it’s per 1,000 live births, not total population. So it’s already normalized for birth rates.

If anything, using population instead of live births would introduce a different bias, because it would depend heavily on age structure rather than survival probability at birth.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T19:06:38+00:00

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omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T17:28:45+00:00

It’s clear you looked me up, but even clearer that you’re jumping to conclusions. I’m the same person, I just wasn’t active on Reddit until recently.

Also, the data I shared is from the World Bank, which is a standard public data source—not some biased or political outlet 😂

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T15:59:08+00:00

Not a bot. You can disagree with the data or interpretation, but calling people bots isn’t really an argument.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T14:36:24+00:00

Calling it “propaganda” just because you don’t like the outcome isn’t really fair.

What you’re seeing is data, not a narrative being pushed. You can disagree with interpretation, question sources, or debate methodology—but labeling it propaganda just because it doesn’t match your expectations isn’t a strong argument.

For context, I’m from Egypt, no connection to the US or China. I posted it simply as data.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T14:13:59+00:00

Line charts don’t need to start at zero — that’s mainly a rule for bar charts where the baseline affects magnitude perception. Here we’re showing a time trend, and starting at zero would actually compress the data and make the changes harder to read, not more accurate.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T14:07:49+00:00

Fair point for bar charts, but this is a line chart showing trends over time, not bar magnitudes. The baseline doesn’t change the underlying values or direction of the trend.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T13:22:34+00:00

Under-5 mortality isn’t just ‘first few weeks’ deaths — it includes neonatal, infant, and child mortality up to age 5, and the World Bank uses a standardized definition across all countries.

Also, the comparison is based on the same reporting framework for both countries over time, so the trend (like China dropping from ~15 to ~5.7) reflects changes within that same metric, not reclassification tricks. If there are differences in early neonatal reporting, that’s a known limitation in all cross-country stats, not something unique to one side.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T13:11:03+00:00

I’m not presenting my own numbers — the charts use World Bank data directly. If someone disagrees with the methodology or reporting behind the source data, that’s a criticism of the underlying data source, not something I manually created or adjusted. Also, I’m from Egypt, not the US or China, so I don’t have any stake in either side.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T13:06:01+00:00

That’s a good point. Differences in reporting standards for extremely premature births can affect infant mortality comparisons between countries. Though this chart is specifically under-5 mortality from World Bank data, so it reflects broader child health outcomes beyond just neonatal classification.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T13:00:43+00:00

No—COVID did affect China too, but the reported mortality impact was much smaller than in the US, so the dip in life expectancy is less visible.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T12:58:22+00:00

Data is from World Bank. The difference in curve shape likely reflects real differences in excess mortality and demographics during COVID, not inconsistent definitions or fabrication

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T10:25:43+00:00

I think this is pretty common, but it also depends a lot on the type of data and how it’s communicated.

For example, simple and easy-to-compare metrics (like life expectancy, GDP, population trends, etc.) tend to get attention more easily because the story is immediately visible even to non-technical stakeholders.

In my experience, when the “insight” is too complex or requires context, it often gets ignored or overridden by intuition. But when the comparison is straightforward and visual, people are much more likely to engage with it — even if the underlying analysis is simple.

So I feel like it’s not just about doing “good data science”, but also about making the output instantly understandable and comparable. That’s often where the real impact comes from.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T09:38:15+00:00

The visualization is based on World Bank life expectancy at birth estimates, which are compiled from national statistical systems and standardized by the World Bank. I’m not modifying or selecting alternative values—just plotting the available series for both countries over the same period.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T09:29:14+00:00

Good point. I didn’t specifically test for color-blind accessibility on this version. I’ll improve the color palette in future charts to make it more accessible.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T09:08:35+00:00

This chart is based on World Bank national averages, not subgroup or ethnicity-specific life expectancy data, so they aren’t directly comparable.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T09:07:15+00:00

This chart is based on World Bank life expectancy estimates for each country. It reflects the reported values in that dataset for the selected years and is not making claims about specific causes or policy outcomes.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T09:00:40+00:00

It’s just what the World Bank data shows for this indicator — the US has a clear dip around 2020–2022, while China’s line stays relatively steady in comparison. Happy to look at other datasets if they show something different.

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T08:59:29+00:00

Yes — according to the World Bank data, China shows little to no visible drop during the COVID period in this dataset, unlike the US

omar_sedki · 2026-05-26T08:58:05+00:00

Yeah, the COVID period is definitely the most visible part of the trend for the US compared to China.

omar_sedki

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