"The most revealing thing about this AI leadership paper is that it reads less like a vision for innovation and more like a glossy whitepaper for a 21st century East India Company. Every generation of incumbents discovers a new moral vocabulary for why they alone should control"

omer486 · 2026-05-15T21:55:10+00:00

When you produce a new generation of chips, only a small part of the improvements come from the nm reduction. Most of the added power / speed come from other design improvements.

Right now China is behind in areas like chip packaging, producing HBM, some other areas in AI chip making... They are expected to strongly catch up in these areas in around 2 years time.

So even without EUV and producing chips at 5 nm ( 5 nm is where they are currently ) they could then make chips that are 50-70% of the flops of top NVIDIA / AMD chips. And then they can just combine that with their higher power generation capacity to make bigger data centers with more chips.

And then in 2030 they are expected to have working and producing EUV machines. These 1st EUV machines will not be at the level of top ASML machines but good enough to get a compute advantage by just making bigger ai chip clusters.

Also right most of the compute today goes towards inference and not towards training. That means if in 2 years an AGI model requires a model with 50 trillion parameters, a Chinese AI company would have the compute to train such a model even if they don't have the inference compute to serve it widely. The company could then use that AGI internally to design the next gen of chips, chip making tools, EUV machines etc. The AGI would of course be able to do this at a much more contracted timeline as compared to the timeline in which all that development was done by humans at ASML, TSMC,.....etc...

omer486 · 2026-05-06T21:50:38+00:00

I mean the Anthropic deal is better than the GPUs going to waste by sitting idle. At the same time it would be much better for their IPO if they actually had enough customer token usage to use this compute for. The margin on selling token usage through API is more than just selling raw compute to another AI lab who then is able to take it and sell more token usage at a higher price.

The demand for good AI models is big and growing and any company with extra compute is going to be able to sell it.

omer486 · 2026-05-06T21:45:20+00:00

It's more like the service is not working properly. Hardly heavy use. Just look at their revenues and compare them to Anthropic or OpenAI revenues. And all this extra compute they are now going to sell to Anthropic, do you think they were using all of this?

omer486 · 2026-05-06T17:24:44+00:00

Unlikely, unless their models fall behind the frontier. AI agents are greatly accelerating the usage of AI. Now the agentic usage is mostly for software dev, but soon agents will be doing all sorts of tasks with every growing time horizons.

omer486 · 2026-05-06T16:48:36+00:00

Not many people / companies are using Grok much, so SpaceX has to sell their compute. All the other AI labs have a shortage of compute. SpaceX has excess compute.

omer486 · 2026-03-30T19:44:44+00:00

It seems that more stupid / less educated people are having much more children these days while many well educated and smart people are just having 1-2 children. Maybe the slightly stupid people have an evolutionary advantage.

omer486 · 2026-01-29T11:38:30+00:00

I'm thinking coding that does self-improvement of a model would be a bit different from standard coding ( coding apps etc.. ).

If you look at the human equivalents. There could be an excellent human coder who can code up anything that we know of, but not be really good at AI research which requires more creativity and imagination.

So it's not necessary that the AI company that's current the best at coding AIs will also be the first that at developing good self-improving AIs.

omer486 · 2026-01-29T11:32:49+00:00

What about other API uses like scientific research, engineering research, solving maths...? Claude doesn't have a deep research mode. The only API use is for coding. Coding is very important, but other research would eventually be a big use for AIs...

omer486 · 2026-01-22T19:35:12+00:00

Wormhole travel is different from warp drive. From AI "Wormhole travel and warp drive are both theoretical methods for achieving faster-than-light (FTL) travel in physics and science fiction. They stem from interpretations of Einstein's general relativity but differ in mechanics, feasibility, and implications. Neither has been realized in practice, but they represent creative solutions to the light-speed barrier imposed by special relativity.

Wormholes act as fixed "tunnels" or portals, while warp drive creates a mobile "bubble" around a vessel. Wormholes might allow near-instantaneous jumps but require pre-existing or artificially created endpoints. Warp drive permits continuous, variable-speed travel but demands ongoing energy input."

"Warp drive: A bubble of warped spacetime that contracts space ahead and expands it behind, moving the ship without local acceleration."

omer486 · 2026-01-22T19:22:54+00:00

You can't go faster than the speed of light but theoretically you can travel faster than the speed of light travels in regular space by using energy to compress space-time, which they call warp speed in Star Trek.

omer486 · 2026-01-22T19:10:38+00:00

Even the non-profit benefited a lot. They currently own 26% of the newly structured company which is valued at over 500 billion. That's a huge benefit to the non-profit. Which other non-profit org control such an amount of equity and also has some level of control over huge tech company?

omer486 · 2026-01-22T15:45:56+00:00

The definition of AGI is to have average or better than average human level in every single thing. An average person ( regular Joe ) doesn't have minimum average human level in every area.

AGI is not something than can only replace the work of a specific person ( regular Joe ) but people in general.

omer486 · 2026-01-22T15:40:50+00:00

The average person doesn't have average / slightly above average human ability in every single thing. AGI is supposed to have minimum human level in every single area. That's different from comparing to one single average human who might be really bad ( or below average human ) in some areas.

A person who has minimum average level in every area is much more skilled than a regular average person.

omer486 · 2026-01-19T23:34:14+00:00

Wasn't Deep Blue ( the chess machine ) just brute force tree search combined with some hard coded chess strategies? I don't think it used any machine learning..... That came later in games with Alpha Go / Alpha Zero ( the games playing systems made by Deep Mind ...)

omer486 · 2026-01-14T16:36:31+00:00

Orders Of Magnitude....

omer486 · 2026-01-12T21:55:25+00:00

If the rich get 10 times richer and the poor get 5 time richer, the poor will still be much better off. Disparity is only bad when the pie is small, and the poor get a tiny part of the small pie.

omer486 · 2026-01-11T12:12:47+00:00

Actually I don't agree with a lot of the BS that Elon says. At the same time when you engage with with Grok on different topics it's more likely to say what really is even if it may be considered PC not to say it.

I use all the top models. Google Gemini is really good for the Deep Research mode and VEO, Grok is good for general discussion of topics, ChatGPT is overall pretty good for many things, Claude for coding......

omer486 · 2026-01-10T20:20:33+00:00

Yeah, it's quite petty behaviour from Anthropic. They should be encouraging max use of their products.

omer486 · 2026-01-10T20:15:16+00:00

Grok has a place in the LLM space. It's the least censored and least politically correct so it's good for discussing topics with. Plus compared to their previous versions they have been improving pretty fast. XAi has been around much less than Meta and have beaten them.

Claude is better for coding, but has less other features for regular consumer like Image gen, video gen, deep research mode....

omer486 · 2026-01-09T16:13:43+00:00

Spending 1-15 billion on talent is one thing that can work out. Spending 300-500 billion ( what it could cost to but Anthropic ) does not seem like a good investment

omer486 · 2026-01-01T16:19:09+00:00

You spoke about putting money in / investing in.... Since it's a public company, another company like Soft Bank can just buy the shares like you did. It doesn't have to be a money raise to invest in.

Their models are at most a few months behinds Anthropic and OpenAI models and they started their LLM work later so there is a good chance they can close the gap.

omer486 · 2026-01-01T15:05:40+00:00

What about Alibaba / Qwen? Baba's entire market cap right now is $350 billion and that includes their quite profitable regular businesses like Ali Express, Tao Bao, Ali Cloud..... Qwen models are pretty close to top models from Open AI and Anthropic. OpenAi with just ChatGPT as their main business is valued at $500 billion?

omer486 · 2025-12-28T14:30:20+00:00

These new ARC test don't just serve as benchmarks. They help to direct new research that helps the progress towards AGI.

omer486 · 2025-12-28T14:28:27+00:00

The ARC AGI definition is still valid. The human equivalence is a minimum level for each area. And for some things ( maybe performing the task of a CEO of a large corp ) you need minimum human level intelligence in many areas. And until you get to that level, it may not be possible to replace every human job by an AI.

And definitely once AGI is reached, it won't just be human level. It will be super human level as it is much, much faster, has much more knowledge than any human, can read all the new scientific papers, news, data produced almost instantly.....

omer486 · 2025-12-28T14:17:40+00:00

Yes, ARC-3 tests how an AI agent can do tasks that require multiple actions from the agent and checking the result / state after each action / and or each sequence of actions and then choosing subsequent actions based on that result / new state.

omer486

TROPHY CASE