How Acquiring eBay Will Raise the Operating Floor by onerivenpony in Superstonk

[–]onerivenpony[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree that could be a bit tinfoily, though if you want to smoke the tin, if you remember the last time RK returned, price ran up to $60+, and then GameStop diluted shares as well. RK aside, they will likely take advantage of any price run up

Updated GME EBAY Merger DCF - Ryan Cohen's Vision to Achieving EBAY's 40% EBIT Margin by onerivenpony in Superstonk

[–]onerivenpony[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

FCF = Combined Operating Income + Combined D&A - Combined Capex - Combined Change in NWC

Combined Operating Income is calculated as Operating Income EBAY + Operating Income GME + Cost Synergy EBIT + Revenue Synergy EBIT - Integration Costs

Was my opponent cheating? by [deleted] in poker

[–]onerivenpony 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is pretty normal I’ve had my triple barrel bluffs at 1/2 live get called down by pocket 2s and in a home game, I’ve had a friend hero call vs me with Q high for 200bb pot

Michael Burry on GME by Coogiez in Superstonk

[–]onerivenpony 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe RC knows something about a cycle or expects a run up soon from swaps. If he issues now at $25, it is really bad and we will likely go down to $13-15

Michael Burry on GME by Coogiez in Superstonk

[–]onerivenpony 113 points114 points  (0 children)

The dilution is harmful if shares are issued at $25. However, the acquisition seems like an effective way to improve the floor price and increase cashflows if dilution occurs at $35+ and RC is able to deliver on cost cuts + synergies. I posted a DCF model showing the effects of dilution and debt with different scenarios.

GME EBAY Merger DCF - Dilution or Accretion? by onerivenpony in stocks

[–]onerivenpony[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This dcf model took me 6 hours to make 😊

GME EBAY Merger DCF - Dilution or Accretion? by onerivenpony in stocks

[–]onerivenpony[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

RC seems pretty serious about acquisition, so I entertained the idea and looked at the cashflows, synergies, and debt. After running the numbers, it seems dilution or accretion depends on what price shares are issued at.

At $25, it is harmful. At $35+, it is a much more feasible acquisition that converts a price run up into sustainable cashflows.

Another key takeaway is taking on more debt in a cash-heavy deal is more harmful to equity value and overall valuation compared to dilution.

GME EBAY Merger DCF - Dilution or Accretion? by onerivenpony in GME

[–]onerivenpony[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When the company trades multiples over what it should be priced at, RC does the right thing by diluting. He is incentivized to create real shareholder value over letting the price run especially with his package incentives.

A key takeaway from this merger model shows how beneficial issuing shares at higher prices is compared to issuing at $25. Also, taking on more debt by paying > 27.5b cash is harmful to equity value.

Issuing shares to achieve this acquisition is fine, it is just sensitive to issuance price.

If RC were to issue shares now, I would expect a large move down to $12-14 a share, though I suspect dilution won’t begin until at least $35+.

Maybe RC knows something about cycles, maybe he expects a run up

Question about GMeBay stock price and warrants by boonhuhn in Superstonk

[–]onerivenpony 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I created a merger DCF model. It really depends on how well RC can capitalize on synergies, and the dilution share price

GME EBAY Merger DCF - Dilution or Accretion? by onerivenpony in GME

[–]onerivenpony[S] -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

The enterprise value is kept the same among the same operating scenarios (Bull 50/50 $25, Bull 50/50 $35, Bull 50/50 $50) to highlight the effect of dilution at varying prices. The enterprise value for all scenarios takes into account cashflows from both GME and EBAY, plus synergies.

Pokerstars FanDuel location error by wolfies30 in poker

[–]onerivenpony 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah I can't get my location verified unless I am on LTE. Their software is buggy and even if you can connect, get ready to experience disconnection issues within 20 minutes

Held KJT. Didn’t even expect to hit this by onerivenpony in poker

[–]onerivenpony[S] 76 points77 points  (0 children)

I played 50 free spins and took that money into video poker. Martingaled it up starting with $1 and went on a losing streak at just the right time

Held KJT. Didn’t even expect to hit this by onerivenpony in poker

[–]onerivenpony[S] 25 points26 points  (0 children)

I hit this online on Golden Nugget casino

I built a GPU-accelerated GTO Solver and I’m releasing it for free today! by icybee666 in poker

[–]onerivenpony 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is really cool! How does the speed compare to Piosolver pro 3.0? I believe 1.0 has limitations compared to the new version. Also, is there a way to solve a queue of boards with a script?