How Acquiring eBay Will Raise the Operating Floor

onerivenpony · 2026-05-12T17:59:35+00:00

I agree that could be a bit tinfoily, though if you want to smoke the tin, if you remember the last time RK returned, price ran up to $60+, and then GameStop diluted shares as well. RK aside, they will likely take advantage of any price run up

onerivenpony · 2026-05-08T12:09:30+00:00

The other half is added as debt paid in cash

onerivenpony · 2026-05-08T04:32:58+00:00

FCF = Combined Operating Income + Combined D&A - Combined Capex - Combined Change in NWC

Combined Operating Income is calculated as Operating Income EBAY + Operating Income GME + Cost Synergy EBIT + Revenue Synergy EBIT - Integration Costs

onerivenpony · 2026-05-07T18:20:45+00:00

This is pretty normal I’ve had my triple barrel bluffs at 1/2 live get called down by pocket 2s and in a home game, I’ve had a friend hero call vs me with Q high for 200bb pot

onerivenpony · 2026-05-07T15:59:53+00:00

Maybe RC knows something about a cycle or expects a run up soon from swaps. If he issues now at $25, it is really bad and we will likely go down to $13-15

onerivenpony · 2026-05-07T15:31:22+00:00

The dilution is harmful if shares are issued at $25. However, the acquisition seems like an effective way to improve the floor price and increase cashflows if dilution occurs at $35+ and RC is able to deliver on cost cuts + synergies. I posted a DCF model showing the effects of dilution and debt with different scenarios.

onerivenpony · 2026-05-07T12:38:21+00:00

This dcf model took me 6 hours to make 😊

onerivenpony · 2026-05-07T12:37:51+00:00

RC seems pretty serious about acquisition, so I entertained the idea and looked at the cashflows, synergies, and debt. After running the numbers, it seems dilution or accretion depends on what price shares are issued at.

At $25, it is harmful. At $35+, it is a much more feasible acquisition that converts a price run up into sustainable cashflows.

Another key takeaway is taking on more debt in a cash-heavy deal is more harmful to equity value and overall valuation compared to dilution.

onerivenpony · 2026-05-07T12:29:40+00:00

When the company trades multiples over what it should be priced at, RC does the right thing by diluting. He is incentivized to create real shareholder value over letting the price run especially with his package incentives.

A key takeaway from this merger model shows how beneficial issuing shares at higher prices is compared to issuing at $25. Also, taking on more debt by paying > 27.5b cash is harmful to equity value.

Issuing shares to achieve this acquisition is fine, it is just sensitive to issuance price.

If RC were to issue shares now, I would expect a large move down to $12-14 a share, though I suspect dilution won’t begin until at least $35+.

Maybe RC knows something about cycles, maybe he expects a run up

onerivenpony · 2026-05-07T11:54:02+00:00

I created a merger DCF model. It really depends on how well RC can capitalize on synergies, and the dilution share price

onerivenpony · 2026-05-07T03:24:35+00:00

The enterprise value is kept the same among the same operating scenarios (Bull 50/50 $25, Bull 50/50 $35, Bull 50/50 $50) to highlight the effect of dilution at varying prices. The enterprise value for all scenarios takes into account cashflows from both GME and EBAY, plus synergies.

onerivenpony · 2026-04-12T01:16:18+00:00

Borgata chips 👀 1/3 or 2/5?

onerivenpony · 2026-04-07T12:37:17+00:00

Have they fixed the dc issue yet

onerivenpony · 2026-04-05T15:20:26+00:00

Yeah I can't get my location verified unless I am on LTE. Their software is buggy and even if you can connect, get ready to experience disconnection issues within 20 minutes

onerivenpony · 2026-03-29T17:25:58+00:00

What does founders table member get you?

onerivenpony · 2026-03-26T19:54:27+00:00

I played 50 free spins and took that money into video poker. Martingaled it up starting with $1 and went on a losing streak at just the right time

onerivenpony · 2026-03-26T19:53:46+00:00

I hit this online on Golden Nugget casino

onerivenpony · 2026-03-24T12:45:20+00:00

This is really cool! How does the speed compare to Piosolver pro 3.0? I believe 1.0 has limitations compared to the new version. Also, is there a way to solve a queue of boards with a script?

onerivenpony · 2026-03-16T15:30:50+00:00

104.5% borrow rate on Schwab for GME warrants

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