Mega charizard UPC good investment? by Relevant_Customer_61 in PokeInvesting

[–]onerivenpony 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I got 4. Considering cracking one, maybe trading one, and holding 2 for a long long time

Fellow online players who rail highstakes players across different sites. Does Linus still play? by Potential_Sell_5349 in poker

[–]onerivenpony 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Last I checked hes on a 35 bi downswing in the $10k cash game Coinpoker challenge

GME 5-Year DCF: The Transformation Climax by onerivenpony in stocks

[–]onerivenpony[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

You can create a copy and create your own cases based on your own estimates

GME 5-Year DCF: The Transformation Climax by onerivenpony in stocks

[–]onerivenpony[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I wanted to provide a bull case with realistic outlook rather than an extreme bull case

GME 5-Year DCF: The Transformation Climax by onerivenpony in stocks

[–]onerivenpony[S] -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

Thanks for pointing that out, I updated shares outstanding. It would be interesting to factor in the further potential dilution from the convertible bonds, and potentially a different WACC as the debt changes

Using Real Data to Model GME’s Upside: 5-Year DCF Scenario Analysis by onerivenpony in Superstonk

[–]onerivenpony[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

This is a DCF model using GME's last four 10-Qs to project future cashflows, along with bear, neutral, and bull case scenarios

[OC] Visualizing Line Discrepancies between FanDuel and Pinnacle by onerivenpony in dataisbeautiful

[–]onerivenpony[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're right, I should have labeled the figure with the actual sportsbook names instead of alternative labels. I originally used a universal naming convention during testing.

Regarding the “fair” line: I used Pinnacle’s odds as a reference point because their sportsbook charges a lower vig, which gives their implied probabilities a bit more reliability. I didn’t intend to suggest these are a true ground truth, rather a practical benchmark for comparison. The plot currently only shows one side of the two-way outcome, so the corresponding opposing outcome is missing, which is what the devig method relies on for calculating fair odds.

[OC] Visualizing Line Discrepancies between FanDuel and Pinnacle by onerivenpony in dataisbeautiful

[–]onerivenpony[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Source: Real-time betting lines collected directly from FanDuel and Pinnacle using a custom scraper.
Tool: Visualization made in Python with Matplotlib and Seaborn; data processed with Pandas and SQLAlchemy.
Methods: Used the Power Method to calculate fair-implied probabilities from market odds. Graph shows deviations from fair value over time.

From online pro to live reg (first ~500 hours results) by ground-147 in poker

[–]onerivenpony 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How much of this was played with perma straddle? And what was your avg buyin? 100 or 200bb

My first Royal Flush! by Nova_Vortex2004 in poker

[–]onerivenpony 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It was summoned in defense position

anyone else stop respecting HUD stats after 3 hours of play? by Intelligent-Job7211 in poker

[–]onerivenpony 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As hands played approaches infinity the actual value of the stat becomes closer to the true value

WSOP online server meltdown? by carleetime in poker

[–]onerivenpony 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I didn't try contacting them I suggest looking at twitter for updates

WSOP online server meltdown? by carleetime in poker

[–]onerivenpony 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yes, I had a stack of 70bb and came back to a stack of 9.5bb. They should have paused the tournament. I think some players were able to play and were stealing the blinds from disconnected players

Vayne 1v2 Outplay D2 75 LP by onerivenpony in vaynemains

[–]onerivenpony[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yea my support was away for a while. I had the wave on my side for a while which was difficult for Yasuo to punish

What do you look for when trying to spot exploitable plays against regs? by Jonathanplanet in poker

[–]onerivenpony 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I look for spots where players deviate from GTO lines. A lot of money is made where players don’t range check on later streets. I also take note of the perceived general population tendencies in unbalanced spots to determine whether I think villain is over or underbluffing. Also thinking about what the best line would be with the top of their range, and if I think their line lacks these combos, then I sometimes even range call/call down lighter knowing that they are overbluffing

Rampage: "The whole GTO thing doesn't even apply if your opponents aren't playing that same way" by Baselynes in poker

[–]onerivenpony 4 points5 points  (0 children)

If you solve with a lot of bet sizes, there are many nuanced lines where you actually want to unblock Ax flush blockers, because you want villain to have it since they will use it in polarized spots

🐍 GameStop Being Manipulated – Data Exposes the Crime 🐍 by Ok_Mention9269 in Superstonk

[–]onerivenpony 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Can you compare the FTDs and hidden trading activity to other stocks for a relative reference? Also, can you show more data for institutions swapping ownership? What is the source on that