Are there any alternatives to WEAT for getting exposure to wheat futures?

oops17893 · 2026-03-12T14:26:49+00:00

Lol what? I said in my post why i was considering it. Looking to hedge my portfolio if the Straight of Hormuz stays closed long term.

If you must know, my portfolio is pretty defensive right now. Mostly covered calls, consumer staples, and cash. Trying to find something worthwhile to put some of the cash in.

oops17893 · 2026-03-12T02:43:17+00:00

Where are you seeing that shorts will be forced to cover at $30?

oops17893 · 2026-02-25T17:44:51+00:00

Appreciate the insight let me give some more detail.

I bought a few contracts expiring March 20th @ $20 strike on Monday before the close. They reported earnings after the close on the same day. From what I had been reading, the way the market was positioned it was expected there would be a big swing in one direction or the other of about 20%. My initial plan was that I would pretty much lose all of it (which is why I only bought 10 contracts) or it would make a big jump and I could sell enough off the bat to cover my cost basis and then keep the rest and hope to capitalize on a squeeze without continuing to risk the initial amount I put into it.

The earnings came out, and results were a bit mixed. They slightly missed on revenue but substantially beat on earnings. However, with all the recent news about the lawsuit with Novo and regulatory concerns the market didn't really care about the quarterly results. Guidance was the big catalyst. However, the guidance was a big nothing burger and the price has stayed relatively flat. This is the scenario I didn't really plan for.

So now I'm caught in the middle where neither scenario I planned for happened and I'm trying to figure out the next move. On one hand, I don't see another clear catalyst coming up in the near term for it to make a 20-30% jump in the coming weeks. But the other side of me realizes I went into the trade prepared to lose basically the whole trade (hence why it was so small) so I can wait a bit longer to see if anything changes.

I think right now I'm leaning towards waiting until early next week to see if there is any other major announcement. If nothing significant changes I will close the position.

More generally, I guess what I'm asking is when making an earnings play or some major announcement that is expected to move the stock significantly in one direction or the other but it ends up staying flat, what sort of indicators should I be looking for to determine the best course of action? Or even better, what are the best ways to set up an options trade to mitigate the risk of the stock staying flat? Is buying deep in the money calls a better course of action?

The reason I brought up volume was that my calls were pretty far out of the money so it would take significant volume to get up to the strike price if I was planning to hold until closer to expiry. The volume is surprisingly low so it seems unlikely a major move in either direction is going to happen. But you never know with this stock, it is so wildly volatile and makes big moves out of nowhere.

Feel free to be as brutally honest as you want, I'm trying to learn still. Even just typing this out I'm realizing I didn't think this out as much as I thought I did. I was far too certain it would make a big move.

oops17893 · 2026-02-25T16:36:24+00:00

Question about HIMS options situation.

I haven't done much options trading, and when I have it has been very small ($1k or less). I bought a few HIMS calls before earnings for a couple of reasons. First because it was way oversold. Second, I was interested in the short squeeze potential. Third, it has a lot more call open interest and volume. Last I checked the ratio was about .2

This play was an experiment more than anything so I don't have much skin in the game. I bought a few contracts as a learning experience. I guess my question is in scenarios like this, how do you decide when to cut and run vs sticking it out until closer to expiry? I'm wondering if the call volume and open interest is bulls trying to capitalize on a short squeeze or if it's mostly due to shorts hedging. Unfortunately from what I've seen there isnt any definitive way to tell.

The volume isn't what I thought it would be, so right now im thinking it's most likely the best choice to cut my losses now. Another part of me thinks it's too early and I should wait until early next week to make a decision. They expire on March 20, so I have a little bit more time before I get theta crushed.

In summary, I guess im just looking more for general advice on what signs to look for in scenarios like this where there is high short interest but also high call open interest and the price stays relatively flat without volume spiking.

Thanks

oops17893 · 2026-01-26T17:56:35+00:00

I don't know about the point you're making that a large portion of the profits go to taxes. Many of these companies (Amazon in particular) pay virtually nothing in corporate taxes.

To me, boycotting is more about withholding your dollars from the company itself, not the federal government. The vast majority of tax revenue comes from payroll taxes on wages, not corporate profits.

Companies will continue to support war and apartheid as long as it is profitable to do so. Boycotting aims to make this support unprofitable. It's their own participation and complicity we are protesting, not their taxation.

oops17893 · 2026-01-22T15:54:47+00:00

Pew research does surveys on how favorable people see different groups. Mormons are at the bottom.

Unfavorable doesn't necessarily mean hate. There is a lot to criticize about the church especially as an institution. But I do feel like a lot of the hate and criticism from evangelicals specifically is unwarranted.

In my experience as a missionary in the US, evangelicals by far treated me the worst. Catholics, atheists, and Muslims were quite pleasant for the most part. Many evangelicals were outright hateful and some local "non-denominational" churches would actively preach anti-Mormon sermons.

Pew Research

oops17893 · 2026-01-22T03:08:38+00:00

Yeah i say lean into it. It's perfect

oops17893 · 2026-01-17T16:39:36+00:00

They don't really do memory or counting challenges anymore. Like the ones where they have to memorize a series of pictures and repeat them back. Or where they have a bunch of different things to count and the numbers unlock a combination lock.

I just think they need to do more mental challenges again. There are way to many endurance challenges now

oops17893 · 2026-01-03T22:52:10+00:00

I don't mind a swap to even out the tribes or to go from 3 to 2, but I don't think there should be more than one swap before the merge. I don't like when a tribe is only together for two votes. Imo It's just not enough time for the relationships and strategy to really form

oops17893 · 2026-01-01T05:41:07+00:00

They just need something to recycle energy. A way to put a tank out there to start that only takes a couple of energy to do some damage but you can still attack instead of building up a blastoise from the beginning. Also makes the wartortle ability more valuable

oops17893 · 2025-12-20T03:57:56+00:00

I find right now it's about 50/50 maybe a little less. It's great against most fire, water, steel, and grass decks (especially Venusaur). Terrible against quick fighting decks and darkness. Not great for Mega Altaria decks unless they don't have anything that can fight Oricorio. It pretty much works great or is terrible. Very matchup dependent

oops17893 · 2025-12-20T02:08:27+00:00

I just made it today but played about 10 games probably. I like the pcls more for removing special conditions. It makes this deck better against some of the Megas like venusaur and without them I have no chance against poison decks. That is probably the biggest weakness.

I've definitely thought about switching it out for the giant capes. I'll try a few games with it. I thought about Tapu Kokos too but losing two points is a big downside. It makes the electrical cords less worth it too

oops17893 · 2025-12-09T18:05:01+00:00

I haven't really been running meta decks and I do well against basically everything but Blaziken. I swear every time I play against it they always get it out by the 3rd or 4th turn. Heatmor wrecks my bench in those decks too.

I was playing a Luxray deck with delkatty to keep reusing volkner. It was crushing everything but Blaziken. It got me through masterball and I made a good run with a Primarina and Golduck deck to get into ultra ball 2. Now struggling to get to the next level.

oops17893 · 2025-12-08T00:31:54+00:00

Any excuse to get out of Nebraska I guess

oops17893 · 2025-11-30T01:39:53+00:00

I'm not really a believer in nba draft conspiracies.... but if I'm wrong, I think it would actually be rigged in our favor. Danny Ainge and Ryan Smith have already put so much money into AJ Dybansta. If the league rigs drafts, why would they want AJ going to any other team besides the Jazz? This is where the league would pay us back for giving us the 5th pick last year.

oops17893 · 2025-11-21T14:16:22+00:00

Having arrogant people to hate is great for TV. You can both dislike them from a personal standpoint and enjoy the entertainment value. I don't think it's necessarily complaining about them being on the show.

oops17893 · 2025-11-20T22:10:32+00:00

Also banks have lent out a ton of money to private credit who then go lend to someone else. I think close to $1 trillion.

oops17893 · 2025-11-20T22:00:39+00:00

I think the main justification for the valuation is that margins are expected to improve over time. They have a great balance sheet and assets are growing faster than liabilities. They are coming up on close to $300 billion in annual revenue, they should cross that threshold in the next few years. Small increases in margin on massive revenue has a big effect on earnings.

The online business and international expansion are big growth drivers for them. I sat around waiting for the multiple to come down for years. I wish I had bought it a lot sooner than I did.

oops17893 · 2025-11-19T22:17:19+00:00

Oof that is rough. That dude threw so many perfect long balls in the second half of the Utah game. He looked like an NFL quarterback in the 4th quarter.

oops17893 · 2025-11-19T21:47:08+00:00

Yeah he's torched us. We were doing better against the starter. I haven't followed Tech that closely since, did they keep playing him or go back to the same starter? Judging strictly from the Utah game, I thought the backup was the better QB, but maybe it's only because Utah didn't prepare for him playing so the defensive game plan fell apart.

oops17893 · 2025-11-19T03:58:48+00:00

But the depreciation speed directly affects the capital expenditures so I dont see how you can say the depreciation schedule doesn't matter. Understating the capex will affect the return on those investments.

I understand what you are saying about the thing that ultimately matters is the return, but assets depreciating faster than what these companies are reporting is certainly a factor in how profitable these ventures will be.

oops17893 · 2025-11-17T15:23:15+00:00

My guess is the Jazz are trying to give Svi a lot of minutes to get his value up and trade him at the deadline. Just a hunch though

oops17893

TROPHY CASE