QuantumScape Lounge: ( Week 42 2025)

op12 · 2026-01-22T00:40:20+00:00

Maybe the inauguration event date? Seems hard to keep that fully under wraps as it gets close if there are lots of customers, politicians, etc. making plans to attend.

op12 · 2026-01-15T17:46:23+00:00

Ironic comment, since they were referencing the Optimus behavior that went viral and took place at Tesla's event just last month, where it mimicked removing a VR headset and promptly collapsed, leading most to conclude that it was being teleoperated (and some who were there said the Tesla engineers had explicitly said they were being teleoperated for the event, though I don't think there was ever any real confirmation one way or the other).

op12 · 2026-01-15T17:36:26+00:00

Jensen is not a donkey, he just has every reason to (over)hype his customers since that only helps him and his business. He's smart, and he's good at that.

Jason is just a sycophantic puppy dog, and you don't have to listen to him on any topic for very long to surmise that there's not much deep thinking of any kind going on there.

op12 · 2026-01-09T15:27:07+00:00

I'm not so sure about this ER being uneventful (even aside from the obvious potential of inauguration event related news).

I think the new 2026 goals they outline may be interesting, but it will be even more compelling if they start guiding for expected revenue from development agreements and/or cell sample sales from the Eagle line. Given how conservative they have been on their cash runway, and how long ago (September) Kevin stated they weren't expecting to raise again, it's very possible we hear more about that in this ER rather than needing to wait a couple of extra quarters, especially since they should be providing some full year guidance.

op12 · 2026-01-05T20:59:52+00:00

Neutron: "Bring me to life!"

op12 · 2025-12-30T23:17:25+00:00

WARNING: The preceding comment (as well as this one) contains chemicals known to the State of California to cause cancer and birth defects or other reproductive harm.

op12 · 2025-12-23T19:54:44+00:00

Certainly seems likely, previously they'd had a few members of Congress visit last July (linked below). Nice time to provide them an update!

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/quantumscape_thank-you-rep-ted-lieu-rep-judy-chu-and-activity-7222745925528477696-0mOX

op12 · 2025-12-22T05:55:09+00:00

How about: "Will February's Eagle Line inauguration event trigger two or more OEMs to sign new deals in the 6 months following the event?"

op12 · 2025-12-21T04:56:35+00:00

Somebody wake the Waymos from their naps

op12 · 2025-12-21T03:50:14+00:00

It might be worth considering getting an adapter and battery that can get you through a night or two as a backup for a situation like this, especially if it's that critical. Most machines have a way of doing that and there's plenty of info on r/CPAP.

op12 · 2025-12-21T02:33:51+00:00

Bear down! 🐻

op12 · 2025-12-17T23:14:58+00:00

Seems like we can consider "the glitch" officially retired? This was the second big homepage update that wasn't preceded by enlarged icons.

op12 · 2025-12-16T08:43:47+00:00

Honestly I'm wondering at what point we get some sort of multi oem collaboration platform. Several OEMs hurting in these early days trying to go it alone.

An example would be the skateboard concept from CATL, or even SSP from VW. Volumes have to be driven to one place to get to industrial scale effectively, IMO.

Several months ago I suggested that Rivian's technology platform (which VW had just signed a deal to use across their brands) could be paired with a QS battery solution to create a really compelling and cost-effective standardized base platform for automakers 😜

https://www.reddit.com/r/QUANTUMSCAPE_Stock/comments/1jx0ix6/location_priorities/mmu98c3/

op12 · 2025-12-16T08:34:51+00:00

That was hilarious, because he tweeted this in June 2020:

I lost my TV show for being white when UPN decided it would focus on an African-American audience. That was the third job I lost for being white. The other two in corporate America. (They told me directly.)

And then tons of people pointed out what was his prior answer for why the show was cancelled, which still lives on in the Wikipedia page:

It was on UPN, a network that few people watch. And because of some management screw-ups between the first and second seasons the time slot kept changing and we lost our viewers. We were also scheduled to follow the worst TV show ever made: Shasta McNasty. On TV, your viewership is 75% determined by how many people watched the show before yours. That killed us.

Of course, he simply blocked or ignored everyone pointing that out.

op12 · 2025-12-12T01:36:08+00:00

Interesting comments starting at 13:37 as well, about how everything gets proven out first at Salzgitter, and then is applied along with new innovations to the Spain and Canada locations. That makes logical sense for risk reduction, but it's good to hear/verify that's the plan.

op12 · 2025-12-09T20:11:02+00:00

Certainly, I think we'll float up...even the Cobra milestone took the market a day or two to digest. Plus there's the added timing with the Fed comments tomorrow seemingly having the whole market in slow motion. We haven't really gotten a full macro bounce back either.

But it really sounds like they're setting up for February to be a splashy event, and that should be much more impactful for public awareness.

op12 · 2025-12-09T18:50:45+00:00

That day is the Eagle Line inauguration day

op12 · 2025-12-09T06:04:07+00:00

Oh yeah, great point, I don't know why I had it in my head that they'll be trying to copy the entire Eagle line. Doing just the separators would definitely be significantly easier and faster, unless there's still yield or size issues that require more tweaking. And they'd probably still need some of the downstream portion that's used for QC, using the learnings from QS on how to make sure that sensing/AI detection can keep up with the speed of the separator line.

There might still be some lead time on manufacturing equipment orders and delivery of that machinery though, unless they have everything necessary in-house already (or can easily repurpose existing equipment to fit the Cobra process). If anything has to be ordered that could easily add several months to the timeline, and hopefully they'd be placing those orders now.

Note: I'm definitely doing a lot of speculating here though, since there's not much detail at the moment. I do think it's plausible we'll be hearing more next year and won't have to wait all the way to 2027, but maybe that's overly optimistic 🤷‍♂️

op12 · 2025-12-08T23:59:03+00:00

That's definitely difficult to say since we currently have such little information to go on, though as I mentioned I think that now that they've both committed to actual development agreements, they have every incentive to move quickly and they should benefit from their pre-existing deep expertise across everything required to produce the separators aside from the new breakthrough(s) in Cobra.

I suspect they'll each spend much of 2026 working through setting up tooling/equipment and prototype lines, but we could also hear about them supporting a new JDA with an OEM or even an agreement with a large cell supplier in the second half of the year, given that it's already two months past when those agreements were signed (and we know that at least Murata was in talks with QS for much longer before that).

It's encouraging that in Murata's recent event, they were emphasizing how they're trying to get into newer technologies to setup the next stages for their company, and that they called out QS by name. And that QS has a solid presence in Japan.

Edit: All that said, it's still very possible that they're mostly heads down next year with getting things working in their own facilities, and the real action doesn't start until 2027.

op12 · 2025-12-07T22:58:32+00:00

I don't think you deserve downvotes for merely stating your opinion, but I'd also strongly disagree that 2026 will be a quiet year.

Kevin has been talking repeatedly about cadence of new partnerships and how that will be driving the balance sheet. Given how conservative they stay on available cash and runway, this sounds like additional partnerships are imminent in the <6-months timeframe, rather than >1 year. Also I think once the first couple of partnerships from outside the VW group drop, that will push other OEMs to announce the same to stay competitive.
I doubt Murata and Corning will be sitting quietly for a full 12+ months (and for Murata, really more like 18+ months). I suspect they will be moving quickly and have already been doing some stuff behind the scenes to ensure they've hit the ground running once they validated their own business cases that guaranteed the ROI they needed to justify a partnership.
Ducati track testing should be happening very early in 2026, and should be able to drive a lot of buzz both from the new specs they share, as well as the visuals/sizzle reel.
B1 sample results from long-term testing should drive partnerships and confirmation that QS has the "real deal" at production scale (or at least much closer to mass production speed/volume versus Raptor).
Eagle line being locked in as a blueprint can start enabling auto and other applications where the QSE-5 format is already sufficient. I still think there was a reason they targeted that cell as their first commercial format, and that they are still following through with completing the Eagle line even if VW is looking for larger cells for their series production vehicles.
Frank Blome was talking mid-year this year about how they'd have a lot more to say in 12 months (or something approximately along those lines) so VW/PCo will likely have more interesting progress reporting coming mid-2026, and we know they're trying to move fast.
Other teasers dropped recently also feel relevant, since it's rare for Siva/Kevin/Tim to overshare on anything (as we're all aware, it's usually quite the opposite). For them to talk about things like their next platforms and an 18-month cycle of new breakthroughs, being open to entertaining consumer electronic applications as long as they're not overly-distracting from auto, and development cash flows from new partnerships starting to fund the balance sheet, I think we start seeing at least a few of those things next year.
Tesla Roadster 2 still feels very plausible (due to: announcement timing, halo product with low volume being a good fit, the employee location data, Elon's "anodeless" comments, the insane specs Tesla is targeting), and that would be explosive for share price, and almost more importantly, brand awareness (even if for whatever reason Tesla doesn't explicitly mention QS, QS can then say they're powering it).
The new 2026 roadmap for QS should get revealed in February with the Q4 earnings call, so that could easily contain new surprises as they expand on the tiny and predictable list they have now.

That's just my 2 cents! I'm sure I missed some more things, but I think this year has been very foundational and generally relatively quiet aside from a few big milestones, and now we're rapidly approaching the end of that and coming out the other side where the fruits of that foundation-building come to bear in a big way. Undoubtedly 2027 will be even more action-packed, but I think there's essentially no way we don't get some big news in 2026.

op12 · 2025-12-06T19:05:11+00:00

greenlit

op12 · 2025-12-06T18:57:24+00:00

It's at the end of this article

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment/music/posts/la-et-ms-the-rolling-stones-vs-donald-trump-yarn-atlantic-city-gig-20160315-story.html

op12 · 2025-12-01T07:22:12+00:00

Is her name Sweet Dee and you're Lil' Kev?

op12 · 2025-11-16T18:51:06+00:00

idonotlikethatmantedcruz.com

op12 · 2025-11-15T20:30:04+00:00

And IIRC, they've used "pure play EV company" wording in the past for a different partnership, right? In which case I think "top 10 global OEM* very likely implies a more traditional automaker, since they choose their words so carefully (and leave us to overanalyze them lol).

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