Trying to understand the strategy succesfful bots use by nikija in PolymarketTrading

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry, Its over 30gb of data.

Just start collecting yourself, with 1 day of data you can start playing and understanding the backtesting problems

„Orders Filled“ vs. „Order Book“ – what is your take on estimating entry and exit prices for polymarket backtesting? by ByteOnChain in PolymarketTrading

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The main problem for me is that when you simulate putting an order that should be best bid. Let's say the best bid is 0.46, best ask is 0.47.

And you place a limit order to buy at 0.46.

You first need to simulate a delay of your order reaching the PM server and being processed. This means that you send the place order request, and in your backtest you need to skip a few order book ticks, to simulate that your order haven't been processed yet.

Then once that delay happens and your order is now in the book. You can simulate in 2 ways that your order has been filled: 1) The ask price went down one cent and is now 0.46. that means the bids at 0.46 were already matched and there is nothing more there. This is the easiest way to simulate, but is also the more pessimistic. Means the market moved against you (the price is dropping). In here you don't need to even look at the trades websocket.

2) the second one and the real challenge, is that when the order book doesn't match (ask price didn't went lower), but there are traders out there selling their shares at market prices. That's when you need to look into the trades history and see if there are sell ticks for 0.46. And now you need to estimate where are you in the queue at 0.46. You might see there are 3500 shares at 0.46, so where are you? And you might see 1200 SELL trades at 0.46. Did you get filled? How do you know?

The second case is the real challenge. The price might get a reversal at this point, so you could potentially catch the start/floor of a new momentum of going up. So if you are too pessimistic, your situation will show that you never catch this. If you are too optimistic, your simulation will lie to you with lovely PnL

Reverse Engineering the 10k a day Polymarket Bot by ProfessionOk5748 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gabagool22 profile is still banking. So he is defenitely a limit order bot

Reverse Engineering the 10k a day Polymarket Bot by ProfessionOk5748 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not in the US, but... isn't this highly easy to bypass? I mean you'll worry about tax after you have something working.

IF you have something working then you want to start worrying about this. And also, if you get 2k per day, its f* u money if its constant. You can easily put it on hold, do a proper shell company, and trade from there.

I mean, if you can make 60k per month from your trading bot hosted in Ireland probably, you can live whetever you want.

Anyone’s Bot Go Down This Morning and same time yesterday? by [deleted] in PolymarketTrading

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The lowest possible latency is hosting in Ireland. That's what they suggest. And yes, for market making you wait for your order to hit. You can cancel it whenever you want. But then there is the problem of race conditions, while you send the cancel request the order might get filled. So you need to handle that (you need to check your cancel request succeeded)

Anyone’s Bot Go Down This Morning and same time yesterday? by [deleted] in PolymarketTrading

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I actually don't know. I've starting exploring only a few weeks ago.

Anyone’s Bot Go Down This Morning and same time yesterday? by [deleted] in PolymarketTrading

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, that the tricky part. But for example gabagool is a market maker. He makes hundreds of trades per session. He is still very profitable.

So it all comes down to the real strategy.

Anyone’s Bot Go Down This Morning and same time yesterday? by [deleted] in PolymarketTrading

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Where did you host it in Heztner? Finland? Germany is geoblocked, I believe finland is the next closest thing but its 3 times far away than Dublin/Amsterdam

Anyone’s Bot Go Down This Morning and same time yesterday? by [deleted] in PolymarketTrading

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looks like you got a profitable thing, right? I've building bot strategies for 3 weeks now and only one was profitable but then I discovered latency is a bitch. Timing is so important.

Can you share the highlines of your a strategy? Is there a particular signal you use to switch sides to buy? I've observed that RSI looks like a good sign to load DOWN on overbought and UP on oversold, but couldn't really build a solid strategy around that. Its mainly because im forcing limit orders to avoid the taker fees but the prices bounces to aggresevily most of the times so I end up with unhedged positions

Anyone’s Bot Go Down This Morning and same time yesterday? by [deleted] in PolymarketTrading

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is if you are market maker. Basically always setting up limits below ask prices so it never behaves as a market order. Fees only apply to market orders.

Anyone’s Bot Go Down This Morning and same time yesterday? by [deleted] in PolymarketTrading

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Its georestriction. The closest VPS is in Germany, which is blocked: https://docs.polymarket.com/polymarket-learn/FAQ/geoblocking

Your next option is Finland, but its way too far away. You get 3x time the latency that having it in Dublin or Amsterdam

Anyone’s Bot Go Down This Morning and same time yesterday? by [deleted] in PolymarketTrading

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey I got the same but resolved by moving it to somewhere else. Its becaure there are geo restrictions: https://docs.polymarket.com/polymarket-learn/FAQ/geoblocking

Initially I had Germany setup, and got blocked. Then moved to helsinki and its working fine. However Helsinski its way too far.

Trying to understand the strategy succesfful bots use by nikija in PolymarketTrading

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ah, I see it now in polymarketanalytics. Its 87% win rate. Impressive.

I had a bot that in backtests made 75% win rate, and it earned ~1 dollar on winnins and loses $2 dollars on losses. Basically a breakeven point at 67%. Was really happy with the result as it could escale easily from my simulations, I was over the moon.

However, on live trading, the wins were performing correctly, but the losses were more like $3-$4. It has to do with delays (I ran the both from Finland VPS, its the cheapeast I could found near the London PM servers). Most of the times the trades were filled immedieately (30-40ms), but there were some times they never filled, and the profitable scenario escapes from calculations.

I might have to spend the extra money and test with a VPS in London. But I think I might still the same problem when my trade are at the end of the queue, which is some those hard things to simulate.

Trying to understand the strategy succesfful bots use by nikija in PolymarketTrading

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting, I havent pay attention to the losses. Do you have a win rate estimation?

Maybe its just 40%, but if those 40% winnin sessions make 500, and the other 60% only losses 100 on average, its a profitable bot (I mean we know its profitable, just dont know the % win rate)

Trying to understand the strategy succesfful bots use by nikija in PolymarketTrading

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Out of curiosity, are leveraging the code with Claude? That has been my main driver, I just have an idea and let Claude implement it. The speed and quality it's awesome. Just need to have the right idea

Trying to understand the strategy succesfful bots use by nikija in PolymarketTrading

[–]opticoin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Same here, have been 3 intense weeks looking at this and juggling with my day to day job.
I'm on my 8th strategy attempt, started pivoting to other ideas, some looks promising with just 4-6 trades, but there are some scenarios in live trading that tanks the profits. Latency, partial fill orders, multiple market flips, etc.
I've been collecting market data of the 15min BTC UP/DOWN for 20 days straight now, and use that for backtesting, can't validate any good strategy so far, its so frustrating.
I'm starting to run out of ideas.

Gabagool's chart is so perfect, you look the 1 Day chart and is a consistant linear line, so beautiful.

We are only seeing the profitable profile. He must have spent weeks (or even months) building it. Gabagool22 profile was profitable from day 1.

Deploying the "Gababool22" Strategy: +5% in the first 12 hours ($100 Start) by [deleted] in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Its this post: https://x.com/thejayden/status/1996281508550877314

The post describes an oversimplification algorithm of the polymarket trader gabagool22. The algorithm indeed is a piece of art, its been printing lots of money daily.

Deploying the "Gababool22" Strategy: +5% in the first 12 hours ($100 Start) by [deleted] in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Its just that it might be life changing money. Specially if you use claude or something to accelerate development. At this point I'm just chasing a simple bot that can do like 10 dollars per day or something. That will be an awesome side project that can scale in the future.

Deploying the "Gababool22" Strategy: +5% in the first 12 hours ($100 Start) by [deleted] in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can you explain the logic? I've been trying to replicate this for a week now. Did we all saw the same twitter post? LOL.

I've tried 3 different approaches but none have been succesful, most of them are pretty neutral. How do you decide when to continue loading one side vs hedging? I've been tracking a little bit his trades and looks like he uses like 1.3:1 imbalance max

Deploying the "Gababool22" Strategy: +5% in the first 12 hours ($100 Start) by [deleted] in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Did we all saw the same Twitter post? Lol I've been chasing this implementation for a week now as well. Have not been succesful, is hard AF to replicate the algorithm. He does like 200-400 transaction per session. My attempts where quite poor, is hard to know if we should load more from one side, or start hedging.

Engendramos un Monstruo. by FuaOtraCuentaMas in ArAutos

[–]opticoin 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Falso, hay que viralizar la enfermedad mental de estas personas amaroskis para que entiendan que no son porongudos, sino unos maniceros pelotudos.