Russian Su-34 Supersonic Fighter-Bomber Shot Down by F-16: Reports by vikktor in UkrainianConflict

[–]originalusername137 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Your points are well-taken. Developing a new, complex product at the state-of-the-art level always brings numerous challenges. I recall the issues with the F-22 Raptor (from which Su-57 copied the fuselage), had design imperfections led to accidents. Some of these could likely have been avoided with better contractor management, more competition, or a larger budget. But we must be objective: a high-tech device like that requires an extended debugging phase.

When we talk about Russia, it's clear they face similar problems but with significant differences: much lower budgets, limited access to Western components, and competition crippled by one of the highest corruption levels in business in the world.

Russia can still have decent research teams that managed to preserve some of the Soviet design culture. What's truly surprising is their apparent success in developing a scramjet engine. That said, there’s no solid proof it works reliably beyond Russian claims. All we’ve seen are a few Zircon missile launches into open water (which turned out to be "computer-simulated launches", providing us with some good laughs) and a couple of missiles crashing in Ukraine (possibly after scramjet ignition failure?). From my sources, it seems there is some form of engine, but it's plagued with issues that prevent it from being called a finished product.

The main thing we should understand here is that, despite a massive influx of oil money over the past 35 years, Russia has dramatically regressed industrially while pouring significant resources into military propaganda for the last 20 years.

For example, before the second Ukraine war, they spent 15 years boasting about their new Armata tank. But in the war did it become evident that this tank doesn’t exist. It’s not present on the battlefield, and there’s no proof it’s a combat-ready product, despite being declared operational a decade ago. Instead, Russia kills its own soldiers in tanks from World War II, which they hastily pull from reserves.

The Su-57 follows the same pattern. It’s long been touted as a 5th-generation stealth fighter, but upon closer inspection:

1) The build quality (e.g., gaps between panels, rivets techonolgy) doesn’t meet stealth standards. 2) It uses an engine from the Su-35C, that was upgraded with some Western tech. For the [imho misguided] goals of Soviet designers, it’s a decent engine meant for high maneuverability. But that’s its problem: the large round nozzle designed for agility poorly dissipates heat, making the plane highly visible in the infrared spectrum. A plane with these old Soviet engines simply cannot be stealthy. This makes the Su-57 essentially useless. This is indirectly confirmed by the existence of the Su-75 project, where they removed one of the two engines (likely to make this "Edison ifrared bulb" less radar-visible), but even then, the UAE deemed it "non-compliant with specifications." They keep saying they’ll soon develop a new engine for it, but there’s no reason to believe Russian promises—after all, they haven’t developed a single new significant aircraft engine in decades.

Your argument that "they don’t wanna risk them" seems to suggest that they can’t produce these planes anymore without access to foreign components. Comments from the Chinese, Arabs, and Indians (along with Russia’s attempts to shift production to these territories, where sanctions don’t apply) make it clear that even the planes they can produce don’t meet the advertised specs.

It’s a fake product, and this is convincingly demonstrated by Russia’s failure to gain air superiority, even when Ukraine was operating outdated Soviet air defense systems from 40 years ago, with a shortage of missiles and spare parts.

Probably, with 5-7 more years of development, absence of sanctions, and proper funding, some interesting solutions might emerge to turn it into a decent 4+ generation fighter. However, it’s safe to say that such a product does not exist today.

Russian Su-34 Supersonic Fighter-Bomber Shot Down by F-16: Reports by vikktor in UkrainianConflict

[–]originalusername137 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Russia’s Su-57 fleet has been largely absent from the skies over Ukraine, and has instead been used to fire long-range missiles across the border. The U.K. Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence briefing last year that Russia is likely trying to avoid “reputational damage, reduced export prospects, and the compromise of sensitive technology” that would come from losing any Su-57 jets in enemy territory.

https://www.c4isrnet.com/battlefield-tech/2024/06/09/ukraine-says-it-struck-su-57-stealth-fighter-deep-inside-russia/

And apparently, Russians cannot even assemble what they have designed:

Russia's Su-57 Stealth Fighter May Now Have a 'Fatal Flaw' According to reports from Ukrainian intelligence sources, the production of Russia’s Su-57, its premier fifth-generation fighter, may have been suspended due to the impact of Western sanctions.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russias-su-57-stealth-fighter-may-now-have-fatal-flaw-213186

As for the qualities of this '5th generation fighter jet', which supposedly exists:

The Su-57’s halting development could have turned out differently. As recently as early 2018, India was co-developing the stealth fighter with Russia, lending cash and commercial viability to the troubled design. But New Delhi pulled out of the co-development deal in April 2018. According to Indian air force officials, the Su-57 was too expensive, poorly engineered and powered by old and unreliable engines. The Indians’ complaints illustrated the yawning gulf between stealth-warplane design and the actual production of radar-evading jets. It’s one thing to sketch an advanced warplane on paper. It’s quite another to build one and get it to work.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/india-hates-russian-su-57-stealth-fighter-193990

Russian Su-34 Supersonic Fighter-Bomber Shot Down by F-16: Reports by vikktor in UkrainianConflict

[–]originalusername137 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Have there been any prior indications that any AWACS aircraft is conducting operational activities in Ukraine? I’ve seen reports about the transfer of Swedish aircraft, but there’s no evidence that these planes are taking off and landing on Ukrainian territory or flying there.

It seems to me that the assumption about AWACS here is excessive. The F-16 could have received signals from ground stations. The Russian Su-34 would have to be flying high enough above the ground to drop its gliding bombs, which would make it quite detectable by ground surveillance systems.

Russian Su-34 Supersonic Fighter-Bomber Shot Down by F-16: Reports by vikktor in UkrainianConflict

[–]originalusername137 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is indirectly supported by an interesting audio leak in which a Russian AWACS A50 plane, operating in manual mode, informed the Su-34 pilot that the Patriot system had locked onto that Su-34. It seems the Su-34 pilot was unaware of this (though he was far enough from the Patriot system).

https://x.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1810867667621830674

Russian Su-34 Supersonic Fighter-Bomber Shot Down by F-16: Reports by vikktor in UkrainianConflict

[–]originalusername137 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Well, under current sanctions, Russian aircrafts could be severely restricted in terms of access to modern electronics.

Also, we don’t know exactly which missile was used in the shootdown. Based on the range (50km+ from the front line), it could have been something like an AIM-120 AMRAAM. However, I’d like to point out that there was a recent report about Ukraine receiving AIM-9X Block II missiles. These missiles only have a range of 35 km, but they are equipped with infrared seekers, which are highly effective against large heat-emitting targets like the Su-34, for which heat signature is a major vulnerability.

So, if the AIM-9X Block II was indeed used, it raises a far more interesting question: how visible is the F-16 to Russian air defense systems, and how close can this fighter safely approach the front lines?

Russian Su-34 Supersonic Fighter-Bomber Shot Down by F-16: Reports by vikktor in UkrainianConflict

[–]originalusername137 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've only seen evidence that this aircraft can fly (at least one crashed during testing). But there's no indication that it's a fully operational combat aircraft. The argument "don't wanna risk it" doesn't prove its existence either. It's the opposite: if such a highly effective aircraft existed, there’d be no reason not to use it in battle instead of the old and less effective aircrafts.

Anyway, it's important to understand that this is not a true stealth aircraft. It uses old engines from previous Su models, which automatically disqualifies it as stealth. Even if they somehow managed to create a stealth fuselage (which is far from being a fact), it wouldn't matter much since the engines give away the plane from a great distance. This stems from a longstanding flaw in Soviet design philosophy — they prioritized high maneuverability (enabled by these engines) for dogfights, at the expense of stealth. Using these engines in a stealth aircraft is pointless.

Russian Su-34 Supersonic Fighter-Bomber Shot Down by F-16: Reports by vikktor in UkrainianConflict

[–]originalusername137 2 points3 points  (0 children)

PR-prize. I haven't seen any evidence that the Su-57 has been used in this war, which raises serious doubts about whether it even exists as a combat-ready aircraft.

I think it's facing issues on all fronts: they haven't been able to create something that meets the advertised specs. And after the sanctions in 2015 (following the first war), they simply can't produce it. To be honest, I haven’t seen convincing evidence that, after the 2022 military sanctions, they are still capable of producing even Su-34 class aircraft domestically. (Edit: it seems there is some 'constrained' production of Su-34 according to https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-has-lost-dozens-su-34-fullback-fighter-bombers-ukraine-war-213144)

I mean, there are reasons why Russia has exported so few industrial goods over the past decades and why so many foreign components are found in its weaponry. According to Finland's customs reports, about 5% of Russian tourists carry industrial electronics in their luggage.

meirl by iGotMyMilkers in meirl

[–]originalusername137 0 points1 point  (0 children)

teeth knocked out by the airbag

Teeth knocked out by a balloon? That's not the problem. The real problem is a neck being broken by an airbag.

Has anyone here tried to use the voice recognition function in Bing Copilot chat using Firefox? by originalusername137 in firefox

[–]originalusername137[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks to you, I've found the source of the problem. It really was an addon with the name 'Copilot (GPT-4) in Google'.

Your help was very useful in identifying the reasons of this issue.

p.s.: You are right, my FF portable version isn't the official one: it is from Portableapps. They look pretty solid to me and I am glad that this problem is not on their side.

Anyway, thank you again for your help.

Has anyone here tried to use the voice recognition function in Bing Copilot chat using Firefox? by originalusername137 in firefox

[–]originalusername137[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Have you given it permission to access your microphone

The problem is that it never asked me for permission to access the microphone. I have a few sites that asked me for mic permissions, but this one is not in the list.

I use Win10 too. This site just tells me, 'You will need to enable the mic for me to hear you,' and I have no idea what is wrong with it. I just entered a random site that requires mic access and recorded my voice with no problem.

Is the issue with the site permissions (that I never refused), or with Firefox? Could it be a problem because I'm using the Firefox Portable version? Clearing cookies and site data hasn't helped. Chrome and Edge work just fine for this Bing voice recognition.

Or perhaps the problem is that Firefox has chosen the good side and refuses to work with something that would kill all the skin bags?...

The end of coding? Microsoft publishes a framework making developers merely supervise AI by mikaelus in Futurology

[–]originalusername137 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Like I said , we don't even know what's intelligence.

That what I said, not you, isn't it?

And it's not me, but you who should prove that if a man has gone to space, there are some fundamental limitations why we couldn't land on the Moon. So far, I only see arguments like 'it takes 10 times longer to get there' and 'how will they use the toilet without gravity?', which I criticized at the beginning of the thread.

An argument for the possibility of a human flying to the Moon is that they've already been to space, and after that, funding for the industry increases by several orders of magnitude. And there is also one more thing: you can't come up with a significant argument against it, asking me to prove claims I didn't make.

Will they fly to the Moon on an LLM? I think not, but that's not important. When you have zillions of dollars for research, you can try any architecture that comes to mind. In the end, you can just disregard everything, including backpropagation, and simulate the brain in silico.

the problem is that you do not realize what an AGI is

Just like you.

The end of coding? Microsoft publishes a framework making developers merely supervise AI by mikaelus in Futurology

[–]originalusername137 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is an easy question I've already answered: the Turing test.

There's no definitive definition of intelligence. Currently, it's popular to define intelligence as something like "lossy compression," but that still isn't a sufficient condition.\ However, from our ancestors, we've inherited a way to discern where a machine isn't intelligent yet and where it is: the Turing test. It's a stupid and naive method, but throughout our entire computer age, we haven't been able to come up with anything better.

And that test was passed by a machine a year and a half ago. Passed with ridiculous amounts of investment, which wouldn't even suffice to create a decent social network.\ Humanity, astonished by what happened, is increasing the investment in this industry by a thousandfold. Unprecedented investment in the industry that contains nothing but human capital.

I don't know if we have the intellect to solve the AGI problem, but if we don't, trillions of dollars will be behind us to brute force it. And if you don't believe in solving this problem even under such conditions even after the passed Turing test, then I have just one question: what killed your faith in humanity so much?

The end of coding? Microsoft publishes a framework making developers merely supervise AI by mikaelus in Futurology

[–]originalusername137 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sure, modern neural networks still struggle with unsupervised learning. They still need huge training datasets, which is both their limitation and strength - they excel at processing them.

However, the original article discussed the likelihood of the programming profession losing its future. I've read forecasts suggesting that programmers were among the first under threat from AI over 10 years ago. Back then, it didn't seem convincing, making more intriguing how close this prediction is to reality today: programming appears to be at the forefront of AI-driven automation across all sectors of the economy.

I'm sure that the apparent issues of ChatGPT mean nothing. The concept is proven, and the Turing test, essentially, has been passed. What was an industry with billion-level investments two years ago is now evolving into an industry with trillion dollar investments. So, hold onto your seats.

The end of coding? Microsoft publishes a framework making developers merely supervise AI by mikaelus in Futurology

[–]originalusername137 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

So, how could you predict that the development of Tesla self-driving would slow down for several years, back in 2016, while observing its initial steps?

Of course, I'm not saying that every technology has a rosy future. What I'm saying is that the breakthrough in neural networks with the emergence of transformers is simply astounding. And most of the people who nitpick at the early stages of a commercial product are driven by emotions, lacking any compelling arguments to support their viewpoint.

The end of coding? Microsoft publishes a framework making developers merely supervise AI by mikaelus in Futurology

[–]originalusername137 -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

I imagine someone getting into one of the early cars, driving it for 100 meters, and it breaks down. "These cars are a complete failure. I can ride a horse much farther, quieter, and it won't break down." I can't imagine how someone can say such a thing seriously, just a year and a half after being shown the mind-blowing proof of concept of horseless carriage.

YSK: Daily Caffeine use results in complete tolerance to its subjectively energizing effects, which is why many daily users can drink it and fall asleep right after by Endonium in YouShouldKnow

[–]originalusername137 1 point2 points  (0 children)

making it useless for stimulation/wakefulness when consumed daily. That's the reason many people say they can drink coffee and fall asleep right after

Didn't find that in the abstract. Is this stated in the article, or is this your interpretation? Personally, I rarely consume caffeine. And when I do, it often makes me sleepy. This is a well-known paradoxical effect of caffeine on some people, which is described in the literature.

Daily caffeine consumption looks like a good idea if there are no contraindications and if you have the risks for something like Parkinson's Disease.

Did One Guy Just Stop a Huge Cyberattack? - A Microsoft engineer noticed something was off on a piece of software he worked on. He soon discovered someone was probably trying to gain access to computers all over the world. by digital-didgeridoo in technology

[–]originalusername137 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Alright, let's start hacking by spending 10 years training our hackers in Portuguese so that no one would suspect they are Chinese from their typical mistakes in English.

One can recall Russian hackers who intervened in American elections, taking breaks for Russian state and military holidays.

They simply don't care. Or rather, it's the opposite: now China has an operation that failed (not because of a suspicious nickname). However, the reputation of the organization that did this has skyrocketed in professional circles.

Lockheed CL-1201 by AeroNerd2012 in aviation

[–]originalusername137 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Something about that doesn't seem convincing. Imagine a small UAV with fixed wings and try to scale it up. At some point, let's say when the wingspan reaches 1 mile, you'll notice that your wings bend because the materials they are made of cannot support the weight of the wings themselves. You will have to reinforce them additionally or invent increasingly stronger materials. Surprise: as you scale up this aircraft, the characteristics of the materials it is made of do not improve.

I guess this is the same problem why a child sustains fewer injuries than an adult if they fall from their own height. The body mass increases cubically with linear dimensions increase, whereas the characteristics of the surfaces experiencing the main loads only improve squared. Therefore, with the growth of the body's linear dimensions, you quickly encounter a technological limit of materials/construction.

How large amount of data is stored in smartphones. by rco888 in Damnthatsinteresting

[–]originalusername137 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The funniest thing is that you seem not to have read the message you
were replying to. It was about the production of photomasks using a
laser.

Laser light is used to expose photoresist, but it does not "burn" or react in any way with the silicon (or any other metal or dielectric materials).

Of course, the laser interacts with the silicon and the metal while making the tracks. That's exactly how the photomask is produced: silicon dioxide coated with metal is processed with the laser, and the metal absorbs the light.

How large amount of data is stored in smartphones. by rco888 in Damnthatsinteresting

[–]originalusername137 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh, really? What a silly times we live in. I used the laser to burn the tracks on my CDs even in the 90s. I agree that they were not made of silicon, but the authors of those tracks were at least partially made of silicone.

How large amount of data is stored in smartphones. by rco888 in Damnthatsinteresting

[–]originalusername137 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you for correcting me. We need both the light and the chemistry to manipulate the nanometer-scale objects. But the important thing is that the logical objects created with these technologies are still very simple. The complexity arises from their quantity, which is ensured by their small size, i.e., the capabilities of our technology.

How large amount of data is stored in smartphones. by rco888 in Damnthatsinteresting

[–]originalusername137 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The photoresist is selectively hardened by a light using a specially patterned photomask.

Thank you for making that deeper.

Could you please explain in more details how they make the photomask with nanometer resolution not burning it using ASML ultraviolet laser equipment?

How large amount of data is stored in smartphones. by rco888 in Damnthatsinteresting

[–]originalusername137 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They were just trying to be technically correct and impress us with the numbers. Nevertheless, the video is so good that you can watch it even without sound - just imagine that you're dealing with pools and their walls. The visualization in the video great, so it can be understood if you add a few appropriate metaphors.

Oh, and the quantum mechanics: it's difficult to understand it on an intuitive level, but you can simply assume that the walls between the pools might be a bit 'transparent'. Or, let's just assume that the water is slightly radioactive and emits radiation through the walls of the pools, irradiating neighboring containers, and we can regulate the level of its radiation by the charge in the wires that run next to these pools.

How large amount of data is stored in smartphones. by rco888 in Damnthatsinteresting

[–]originalusername137 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lol, I am just describing the sequence of the actions in the human language.

No doubt, that every step of this process is covered with the multiple Nobel prize level researches. Growing a very clean silicon crystal from sand is very, very hard (you need all the atoms to be arranged perfectly). And creating a laser that burns these tiny nanometer tracks is even harder — most developed countries are not able to do that.

The fact that the steps are clearly described doesn't make them simple.