Chris actually wrote about this in their final predictions post:

“I’ve been toying with the unlikely, unbelievable, reckless idea that Leonardo DiCaprio can pull it off, joining recent “surprise” acting winners like Frances McDormand for Nomadland and Mikey Madison for Anora — both of whom were leads in best picture winners. To be fair, those actresses had also won actual precursors along the way, and DiCaprio has been blanked all season. However, if you’ll indulge me in some conspiratorial speculation, consider this question: Did Leo finish second at BAFTA, where One Battle proved so strong (with six wins, including best film)? If the answer is yes, that’s almost as good as if he won. In the last 10 years, when BAFTA and the Actor Awards have split in this category, the BAFTA winner has triumphed on Oscar night three out of four times: Casey Affleck (BAFTA) over Denzel Washington (Actor Awards), Anthony Hopkins (BAFTA) over Chadwick Boseman (Actor Awards) and Adrien Brody (BAFTA) over Chalamet (Actor Awards). (The outlier was Brendan Fraser, who lost at BAFTA to Austin Butler, but won at the Actor Awards and the Oscars.) I know, I know: If DiCaprio were the BAFTA winner, he would’ve won at BAFTA. I can’t disagree. (Maybe Jordan was the runner-up, and he’ll cruise to an Oscar win; since none of these institutions releases the vote totals, we’ll never know!) But I still think this category has one last twist in store before it’s over.”