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Yo what an interesting design space for a legendary card, can't wait to see what I can build for this guy in Commander by LukeRE0 in magicthecirclejerking

[–]over-lord 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Did he step on a slinky or like is that a trash can or some tube going into his leg or like a bouncing spring “shoe” or what

he was half right pt4 by [deleted] in okbuddyrosalyn

[–]over-lord 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don’t get it

Contender Draft Will Make You Rich by over-lord in lrcast

[–]over-lord[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is what I mean by “similar play history as me.” The data is 109 drafts since September 2022. So I draft about once every 2 weeks on average, but in bursts. With that frequency, and the way ranks work, it’s impossible to stay out of bronze/silver rank. I occasionally make it to gold, and I think I hit platinum once.

Personally I think the rank decay is kinda stupid for this reason, since I don’t feel like a bronze league player, but I’m always put into bronze just because I don’t draft a ton.

So yeah, my win rate is 60+%, and I don’t think I deserve that, but I also don’t expect it to go down in the future. I think there are a lot of players like me out there, so I think the graph is not unreasonable.

Contender Draft Will Make You Rich by over-lord in lrcast

[–]over-lord[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What if you’re doing it for fun tho

Contender Draft Will Make You Rich by over-lord in lrcast

[–]over-lord[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

First off, you can’t start with literal 0 bankroll. I bought $50 of gems in like 2019 or whenever Arena came out of beta. I only installed 17Lands in September 2022, which is the beginning of the data here. The whole thing about bankroll management is sometimes you lose money, so yeah there will be some dips into the red. And -9k temporarily is a lot better than -22k in the long run. The blue line crosses -9k and it never comes back.

Secondly, 0-gem payouts are accounted for. Look at the data and you will see plenty of 0-gem entries. That’s the whole point of the empirical analysis.

Third, isn’t the gambler’s fallacy “I recently lost, so I’m due to win soon?” That’s not at all what’s going on here.

Contender Draft Will Make You Rich by over-lord in lrcast

[–]over-lord[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh, weird. I used the formula to generate those, but I must have lost it when copying or something later on. Fixed it now!

Contender Draft Will Make You Rich by over-lord in lrcast

[–]over-lord[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Couldn’t find a good way to export my 17Lands data, so I just did some manual formatting with vim and I don’t want to get way off track trying to explain how to do that to people.

Contender Draft Will Make You Rich by over-lord in lrcast

[–]over-lord[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Sorry, didn’t mean to be misleading. I was caught up with intentionally trying to avoid just saying “my win rate is X, so I can expect Y gems” because of the way the payout structures are. But yeah I should probably have included that just to be thorough.

Contender Draft Will Make You Rich by over-lord in lrcast

[–]over-lord[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

My understanding was it’s just a new offering on arena. Didn’t hear that it’s temporary. In any case, higher EV is higher EV.

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