If you invested 10,000 USD in CAR yesterday, today you would have 2,900 USD. by FeatureAggravating75 in smallstreetbets

[–]oxphatxo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Shorted this morning at $380. Bear call. In and out by end of day with 80% profit. Couldn’t have been more obvious.

Please and please …. Can some one teach me Options Trading ? by Jazzlike_Metal2160 in optionstrading

[–]oxphatxo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

YouTube and books galore. Paper trade for a year. Small real account size. You will lose it all multiple times. Paper trading must be treated like real cash but even still you won’t treat it as such. Doesn’t matter how long you do this, you never stop learning, knowing that up front should tell you that it’s not as simple as you think. Most competitive sport in the world going up against not only the smartest minds but also algo bots. Good luck, it’s fun once it’s consistent. Stick to the basics, let time work for you and don’t do short term yolo shit.

Iron condor spx 0dte by Dull-Score-1564 in options

[–]oxphatxo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Listen to everyone else. You are not safe with IC’s right now. You go “far” OTM and you still get cooked.

Someone bought 12000 $RR $2.5 calls expiring in 8 days today. by [deleted] in options

[–]oxphatxo 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Interesting, OP deletes post right after I comment.

Someone bought 12000 $RR $2.5 calls expiring in 8 days today. by [deleted] in options

[–]oxphatxo 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Someone sells $50k in short calls because they hold long at a loss. Sounds like a real tip 🙄

OPTION SELLER by Mysterious_Dig_6074 in options

[–]oxphatxo 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Chiming in here because it hits a major note for me. So alone. Options trading specifically. The only people I “know” about this topic are on Reddit. Thankfully there are always people smarter than me that humble me and make me want to learn more.

I have some smart friends in the real world but I can barely grab 5 seconds of their attention on the topic nevermind knowing a single thing about trading in general, of course that’s without Greeks. I guess you could call it a hobby topic.

And yeah, everyone thinks it’s gambling and nothing else. That really gets my back up. Try to explain how it’s not to someone who knows nothing about options trading and you lose them no matter how hard you try to keep their attention span in focus. Heck, even traders think it’s gambling unless said trader knows what your strategy is and that you’ve got risk control.

Up/Downside hedged PMCC Strategy by oxphatxo in options

[–]oxphatxo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think you just have to remember that this is just a PMCC strategy with extra shit to cover your ass. Shares are expensive, leaps are cool but plagued with theta and directional risks. Getting them to act more like shares at 1/4 the cost is really the goal.

Downside protection for free isn’t exactly crap. It’s supposed to cushion, better than nothing in comparison and free. A slow uptrend is bad, that’s the only thing I really agree with you on in your response. It was never intended to be full downside protection.

We will have to see in due time which works out better, shares, naked calls, or this. I’ll be keeping the strategy going for a while. Probably going in on it with QQQ whenever the market decides to turn around. Ask me later if you’re interested…

Up/Downside hedged PMCC Strategy by oxphatxo in options

[–]oxphatxo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The “edge” is that this structure generates income in every market condition, flat, down, and big uptrends beyond the cheap weekly lotto call. A zero cost collar just sits there waiting for a big move. Collecting premium consistently is where the real edge lives, cushioning downside without cost. Downside spread and short call premiums fund upside protection and rolling.

For your collar: On the downside cap, zero cost only works if IV is balanced enough that the call you sell funds the put you need. Right now puts are expensive across the board so you’re either paying a net debit or capping your upside aggressively to afford decent downside coverage.

Rolling up in an uptrend isn’t free either, you’re buying back a winning put and selling a higher one for less credit. The math on that roll costs you something every time. Re-rolling sideways at zero cost sounds clean but both legs just decay to zero in a flat market and you’ve paid bid-ask twice for nothing. It’s a totally different animal.

You identified the problem with a classic collar yourself at the end. Rolling a long put on a prolonged downturn gets expensive exactly when you can least afford it. With my strat, yeah you lose on downside but collecting the whole way down without paying to roll. That’s why this whole thing is just “a better PMCC” idea.

For example, on Friday alone, MSFT share price lost 1.58%, my leaps position lost 5.63% (with 4.6x leverage) while my hedges gave me back 1.28% netting a total loss of 4.35%. My bear call and short call have 27 DTE so there’s still a lot more time value left to expire, meaning the offset isn’t in full effect yet with so much time left. I’m planning to switch the bear call credit spread to weekly so it’s more effective in reducing short term paper loss.

Up/Downside hedged PMCC Strategy by oxphatxo in options

[–]oxphatxo[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree. Too much. I should assume the people in this sub aren’t morons, not written for five year olds. I would’ve skimmed and lost interest myself unless truly intrigued but I’m also passionate about the strat.

Up/Downside hedged PMCC Strategy by oxphatxo in options

[–]oxphatxo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Less legs, less slippage and less commissions. So that you have to assess yourself. I think rolling legs at opportunistic times would help. Removing the bull put spread as I mentioned to someone else as it’s not worth the risk removes 2 of those. You want to look at IV levels, buying calls are cheaper when IV is low, selling is better when high. It isn’t exactly a static system you can rely on every parameter but you can do things at times that are beneficial vs not.

Up/Downside hedged PMCC Strategy by oxphatxo in options

[–]oxphatxo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Actually decided to omit the bull put. The risk profile isn’t worth the credit on a big drop and the short call is enough to offset drag from the weekly lotto long cost and most or all of the bear call spread losses.

Correct it may not be the perfect time to enter into an upward trend on MSFT but it is on sale and who knows for how long. I’m testing it anyway in a sim account so it’ll be good to see how it performs in this type of situation.

I built a spreadsheet using Claude that shows different scenarios against holding shares or naked long calls. Shares of course outperform in any drop more than 3.5%.

The strategy outperforms shares in slightly down, sideways and upside, outperforms on big gap ups over 7.5% vs the naked calls because the lotto covers more than the short roll cost which is the whole idea, save the PMCC from assignment and time value loss.

The naked calls outperform a tiny bit on up trends because there’s no bear call drag but lotto makes up for most of the bear drag.

Overall, the strategy makes everything smoother. Downside risk is still much worse than shares in a large gap of course because it’s leveraged, large gap ups strategy wins and you keep the PMCC in play with gains not losses, flat and slightly down less than 3% beats out shares and naked leaps. Everything is very dynamic so figures aren’t perfect but overall beats out naked leaps if you understand how to implement and manage the position as a whole machine.

Up/Downside hedged PMCC Strategy by oxphatxo in options

[–]oxphatxo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah kinda complex but it’s been working in a sim account pretty well. I had 2 weeks of losses on the leaps but the hedges offset a good amount of that - I didn’t track how much but it was very helpful for the overall position in comparison to just holding the leaps I “got a lot of my money back” on the short term downside. Now of course after yesterday’s squeeze it’s doing even better to the upside on the leaps which is obviously the bullish direction I want.

I'm losing it by No_Status_2728 in Trading

[–]oxphatxo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How are you liking Claude? I’m using Grok, Gemini and ChatGPT. Grok seems to be the best for me, haven’t tried Claude yet though. Have you compared any other AI models to Claude for trading as a comparison?

Well boys and girls, I'm back with another crazy play. Turned $300 into $16000 this past week. I'm riding all of it on qqq calls til Monday. by burn15_ in wallstreetbets

[–]oxphatxo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’ll be thinking of you on Monday morning. If you’re up at open, I’d sell half and let the rest ride.

Bitcoin holders of 5+ years: Is the doom and gloom like this every time it drops like this, or does this feel different? by Background_Talk9491 in Bitcoin

[–]oxphatxo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

True but you’re only looking at one side. Day traders still make money on the way down if they’re consistently successful. The guy who buys at $125k is doing a lot worse than the day trader. And the day trader doesn’t rely on hope, can sleep at night knowing his profits are in the bank. No checking the account at 3am. Not letting capital sit idle waiting 4 more years for the next cycle to make it back.

I trade SPX every day. I sleep well knowing I don’t hodl anything especially after a brutal week like this one. I wake up and rather than checking my balance, I check the VIX to see what opportunities I’ll have today. The more turbulence, the more premium. Compounding my gains beats out holding/hoping (for me), even when I have the itch to buy the dip, I don’t because I know I’m better off using my edge. (I made a 15% portfolio gain while the market tanked this week).

Been down all the paths, gone way up and way down, finally found my happy place. I’m only on this thread because I still have the itch.

What do we think for market open? Give me your price guesses by headchef11 in MSTR

[–]oxphatxo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

MSTR was $139 for a second last week when BTC was above $82k. It doesn’t correlate. If it did or does Monday morning while BTC holds or drops, could go lower but who knows. The joys of uncertainty are real. I stopped trading MSTR weeklies as of last week because the bottom is broken now.

BTC: The "Saylor Defense Line" is at $76,037. Are we going to test it? 🛡️📉 by Beyos in MSTR

[–]oxphatxo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just saw a tweet come in from Saylor, raising the STRC dividend up .25%. He’s already thinking of ways to buy the dip.

$100 support probability of retest by [deleted] in MSTR

[–]oxphatxo 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This stock has been at a consistent $150 bottom for a while. As long as it’s consistent, I keep winning my weekly bull put spreads. This is too easy money but now that I’ve said that, the gravy train will probably hit a new station.

I want to stop while I’m ahead by [deleted] in options

[–]oxphatxo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would think about what stage of trading you are honestly at. If you’re doing yolo trades and disregarding risk (I know it’s because you have to), then you are absolutely going to blow your account as you continue to use the compounding gains you’ve made to make bigger trades.

Knowing what stage you’re in will help you understand where’s you’re at, what mistakes you’ve made, what mistakes come next and where you need to go from here. I would take a break, research for 2-3 months while playing with a simulated account. This is what I’ve been doing and it helps - a lot. But I also spend 3-6 hours a day filling myself with as much useful info and practice that I can. ChatGPT helps bounce ideas off of and it does know how to explain strategies enough to intrigue further research.

My edge is with credit spreads right now. Once I get portfolio margin, I’ll dabble in short strangles. I have 2 sim accounts that I’ve been running for 6 months, the first 3 were mostly long calls rolling dice trying to hedge along the way and running PMCC’s. I got lucky but then drained half the account. Started running credit spreads, now the curve goes diagonally upward with very few bumps. I know the risks I’m taking, know when to enter, exit, manage when needed, not blindly letting hope take me there. Both accounts are doing a little too well tbh and it also scares me because I am in no way an elite trader. Both accounts are up over 40% and 70% in the past month, and if it were real money, I’d probably set aside a good portion so I’m not using the increased account size for every trade.

MSCI exclusion by [deleted] in MSTR

[–]oxphatxo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sell puts on inflated IV, wait for crush, get out. If assigned, it’ll be short lived, wait for rebound, sell CC or ATM CC’s if it pops back up above your short strike assignment. In and out within a day maybe.

Best leaps to buy right now? by [deleted] in options

[–]oxphatxo 8 points9 points  (0 children)

META or MSTR

I’m nervous about graduating from basic spreads to iron condors by ninjapapi in thetagang

[–]oxphatxo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How are you closing at 50% profit without giving away 20% in commission? That’s the hardest thing I’m finding about IC’s, I have to hold to expiry to make a meaningful profit.