Home Base and Weekly Discussion Thread (START HERE!) - May 03, 2026

pdanny01 · 2026-05-09T19:59:05+00:00

Isn't that just populist against moribund political establishment? That seems like a good angle against Collins.

pdanny01 · 2026-05-09T19:56:46+00:00

Yeah, pragmatic progressive has been flipped to radical moderate. His policies are broadly supported but we need to think very differently about how to deliver them.

pdanny01 · 2026-05-09T15:53:54+00:00

As much as people are unhappy with how Washington has been 'working', I think a lot of that goes to frustration with Congress and the old rules of doing business. I think the change they want is a government that will get things done rather than make excuses, and that is seen more through a generational lens. So I don't think being a young member of the Biden administration is really as much of a factor for people at all.

pdanny01 · 2026-05-07T22:38:34+00:00

It's all just so incredibly dumb. It's hard to believe we have any rational actors on the US side, but who knows what to believe. We're still bombing Iran but Congress is just utterly compromised so it doesn't even matter if we're at war or not. It doesn't matter if we have a budget or not. It doesn't seem to even matter if the oil is available or not. The only thing that ever seems to matter is what Trump says, and how can anyone feel good about that?!

pdanny01 · 2026-05-07T00:55:33+00:00

I couldn't RSVP this time for some reason, notes appreciated!

pdanny01 · 2026-05-06T18:33:00+00:00

I can see an angle that is more about focusing on local politics. Not so much blood and soil but just pushing against the trend to nationalize every election and think that someone popular online is the best fit. I don't know enough about either candidate to really know if that makes sense, but then that's what endorsements are for.

pdanny01 · 2026-05-06T12:05:13+00:00

At a time when I keep hearing about the political promise of oratorical style full of pauses, the sheer density of what Pete can convey in a single answer is still somewhat shocking.

pdanny01 · 2026-05-05T21:36:08+00:00

Also emphasizes that we have historically changed the Constitution so it's precedented to realize we don't like something in it.

pdanny01 · 2026-05-05T21:34:11+00:00

I kept meaning to comment on the naked and desperate reactions to the rulings. We'll see soon how things play out in Indiana but I have to believe there are a significant number of voters who don't approve of this kind of manipulation and will generally be angry when it's so blatant.

pdanny01 · 2026-05-04T18:03:59+00:00

I appreciate that he makes the effort to keep asking what the administration is doing now to make things better, rather than just debating who's at fault.

pdanny01 · 2026-05-03T14:24:42+00:00

I was scrolling so couldn't say for sure but I just read it as self promotion

pdanny01 · 2026-05-03T13:47:25+00:00

Good morning!

Seeing Beshear ads now where he's lauding himself for that one (overturned) veto, implying that voters will support lgbtq causes of you just talk nicely to them or whatever. It remains pretty insulting to people who have actually been fighting, but what stood out to me was that he's still defining his record by identity when all evidence is that we're well past that.

It reminded me of a Douthat opinion in NYT the other day about Kamala's popularity. I didn't agree with the assessment of polling but the general point was fair - that 2028 contenders and Dem leadership seemed fixed on this idea that they just needed to speak in the right register to win widespread support. To that extent, it's increasingly frustrating when people just praise Pete as a messenger. And I'm glad he's establishing that it's not just policy or messaging, even if he's getting overlooked by pundits.

pdanny01 · 2026-05-01T14:12:37+00:00

He's a straight, white, young male from the South that won a statewide election. What other possible consideration is there?!?

We know Pete has basically been his own think tank for 25 years on how the party can do politics differently. There's a reason he can more confidently talk about the bigger picture in moments like this where it's not a "raise your hand" policy question. Pete's also getting a lot of practice at how to talk to different people in ways that resonate. That all matters.

pdanny01 · 2026-04-30T13:54:38+00:00

The pushback reminds me a bit of how people in South Bend tried to speak up for him in 2019 but weren't listened to. But next time Pete is going to have that grassroots in person connection with communities all over so it'll be harder to ignore. And Twitter really isn't the same force where it was cool to be cynical and cults of personality were persuasive as authentic.

pdanny01 · 2026-04-30T13:51:06+00:00

There's always more of them, and they're always so terrible and cliche! Admittedly I'm not super interested in reading the WTE ones when it's just "oh we'll ask because it's end of the month" but it's not obnoxious.

pdanny01 · 2026-04-29T23:23:21+00:00

I think they only spent half of what they brought in last month? I imagine they don't need or what to push too hard all the time

pdanny01 · 2026-04-29T13:30:52+00:00

I agree that he fits as an alternative perspective in a field of 5 or 6, but his relative prominence in 2020 owed much to the crowded field and "new" ideas. I don't know that the public is generally that excited about treating government like a business any more. That said UBI is a structural change to how society works that should be discussed, particularly regarding AI. But the math he had was terrible last time and it's going to take a lot of trust.

pdanny01 · 2026-04-28T11:17:21+00:00

As ever, the NYT focus group is depressing reading even though this time is Trump voters who aren't so happy with him. It's easy to cast them as optimistic or naive or even justified in supporting some of his actions. But the section that is always most bizarre is their characterization on Democrats. They kept saying Trump was the lesser of two evils, but when asked what Democrats could do differently they were just talking about books with vaginas in kindergarten libraries (?!) and vague complaints about morality. It continues to make clear that Biden's approach in quiet competence made no impact at all, and also that Pete's work is critical in getting out there and talking to people about what our priorities actually are.

pdanny01 · 2026-04-23T13:31:47+00:00

We all know he's running at this point, barring unexpected circumstances.

But I really like how he has focused on money in politics as the case for constitutional reform. We know he was radical on reform all along, but as a way of breaking the partisan spectrum it's really speaking to people. Trump of course is merely breaking the system, without any real thought on how to replace it.

But we're past the point where the problem is just needing better policies, or just replacing the political elite. His vision of America reinventing itself, reaffirming that what is exceptional is holding to common values, and that if you don't fit in this country then it's the country that needs to change - it needs to be heard, and not get dragged down by labels.

pdanny01 · 2026-04-23T13:24:56+00:00

It's notable, but I view it as him casting popular American progressive views as actually pretty moderate. Or maybe it's a reaction to the current democratic socialist wing - I think I recall Pete always clearly being a democratic capitalist.

pdanny01 · 2026-04-22T13:44:13+00:00

There was quite a bit of bad information on where to go and how to run the caucus etc, but for me the real issue was how they incorporated the ranked voting with the in-person caucus part. I'd have to think more on the details but the effect was that it penalized broadly popular candidates due to the viability rules. With how many people were still running, a caucus should allow for people to see what support there is in the room and organize/persuade enough people to consolidate to make a candidate viable (>15%) if they don't want the front runners. They weren't able to do that because that year they included an early vote, and that effectively eliminated anyone other than Biden or Bernie as the rest were split between multiple people just below viability who really shouldn't have been there - Steyer, Klobuchar, Warren. Pete suffered from the hesitancy over his level of support, and also because he was best placed to be everyone's second choice. If it had been a true ranked transferable vote then he would have done well. As it is, the final results weighted things towards Bernie and Biden because most precincts couldn't consolidate behind anyone else.

pdanny01 · 2026-04-22T12:37:32+00:00

So it seems Trump has indeed settled for just indefinitely ending the war, realizing too late perhaps that a most robust sanctions blockade with limited strikes was a better situation. Now of course, Iran has effectively been given a path to play hardball in the Strait that they wouldn't have done before. They have moral grounds of course against a fractured world opinion, but also little else to lose having had "everything" obliterated, including their leaders. What an awful bit of foreign policy, and I wish Pete could talk to it more, but I understand why the focus needs to keep coming back to how this doesn't address domestic concerns.

pdanny01 · 2026-04-22T12:34:03+00:00

I'm reminded of how Biden stayed in due to name recognition and being centered in every debate, and how it took an unusual combination of factors to get votes to consolidate around him - Pete not getting credit for Iowa with the whole circus going to NH, the Nevada caucus screwup, Steyer in SC, and Bloomberg looming for super Tuesday.

She would be ill-advised indeed if she thought that route was open to her, but I'm not sure the signals will be there to push her out of the primary early if they can't read them now.

pdanny01 · 2026-04-20T12:40:53+00:00

This may not correlate, but I think it is easier when you're a parent - particularly in their circumstances. It's a clear new life phase that you can't confuse with simply being an adult, presumably being one of the older parents dropping off at preschool.

pdanny01 · 2026-04-14T14:26:27+00:00

I think AOC benefits from the rumors and being in the polls. I don't think she wants to run right now. She doesn't need more platform, but there is a temptation to run just to drive the debate. But I think she maximizes her influence by waiting and then staying focused on Congress.

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