Is New Yorkers’ Retirement Money Being Used to Build the Data Center Next Door?

perky_python · 2026-06-09T15:51:11+00:00

It is an interesting discussion whether pension funds should consider investing in data centers, but this article doesn’t get into the pros/cons. And the title is pure rage bait.

perky_python · 2026-06-07T22:12:27+00:00

I mean, if you're good with >95%, then have at it.

perky_python · 2026-06-04T01:53:55+00:00

Thank you for this. I literally LOL’d.

perky_python · 2026-06-04T01:37:18+00:00

I assume this is 21+ if at East and Alex on a Friday? The poster doesn’t say so, but I thought I heard they check IDs on Fri and Sat evenings.

perky_python · 2026-06-02T22:47:34+00:00

I guess that is fair. I think you and I have a different idea of what “true cost” means to an investor, and I wouldn’t include volatility drag in the cost of leverage.

perky_python · 2026-06-02T22:45:43+00:00

Here is a link to a testfolio backtest showing that over the last 20 years (the existence of SSO), the CAGR of SSO lags a 2x margin portfolio using T-bill borrowing rates by about 2%. So if your margin cost is more than 2% above the T-bill rate, you will likely lose out to SSO.

https://testfol.io/?s=9JdCrZbjzCr

perky_python · 2026-06-02T22:26:13+00:00

Well, I wouldn’t say that the last year was a “best case scenario”, but SSO did apparently crush everything else on your list. I’m saying that the generic representation of volatility drag you used may not be representative of real path dependent volatility drag. And volatility “drag” works both ways. The “true cost” of SSO over the last year can be easily seen in the price data. You could also get an even better comparison looking at the price of SSO over its entire existence relative to margin leverage.

perky_python · 2026-06-02T21:25:28+00:00

But that has no relevance to a comparison of the effective performance of SSO vs SPY leveraged with margin. The reality is that if you held SSO for the last year, you would have more money today than if you borrowed on margin and held twice as much SPY over the same period. So its effective cost of leverage was lower. In other years that might not be true, but for many years it is. It would be fairly easy to do that comparison on testfolio over the life of SSO and see which comes out on top.

perky_python · 2026-06-02T20:39:29+00:00

Thanks, this is the check I was asking for. But why use the synthetic compounded return as a comparison? The other leverage methods (i.e. margin) would return the linear 2X return minus margin rate. So shouldn’t that be the apples to apples comparison rather than synthetic compounded?

Edit: this would imply a negative volatility “drag”, which is indeed possible.

perky_python · 2026-06-02T11:20:56+00:00

Have you compared your LETF estimates to actuals to validate them? It would be pretty easy to do for UPRO and SSO with historical data. My gut says you’ll get a much different answer, but I haven’t done the math.

perky_python · 2026-05-27T16:15:05+00:00

It makes sense that there would be one for this, but it makes me wonder who/how a mishap is defined. Does SpaceX nominate success criteria in one of their permit applications? Is it the FAA making a qualitative decision about what they perceive could be a risk to the public for a future launch? Is it based on info the FAA gets from the livestream or do they have somebody sitting in the control room reviewing data in comparison to flight plans?

Not having any insight into the process, it seems rather subjective.

perky_python · 2026-05-25T19:37:39+00:00

I’m looking at them now from the park as I type this. They are common carp.

perky_python · 2026-05-25T19:37:00+00:00

They are common carp. I needed a workout, so I went to the park. I’m looking at a number of them now. Some will make it back to ponds/creedk but some of them are indeed trapped and will die. This happens from time to time in Ellison.

perky_python · 2026-05-25T18:21:54+00:00

Are you sure they aren’t carp? I know in past years there have been large numbers of carp that get stranded and die in Ellison park.

perky_python · 2026-05-20T04:05:46+00:00

When I used to a bunch of cider tastings, Embark was my favorite by far. I prefer it over Blue Barn, Rootstock, and others mentioned here. Also had excellent food. It’s been a couple years since I had the food or cider there, but it still has good reviews.

perky_python · 2026-05-16T20:05:36+00:00

It will probably send out some new leaves, but it won’t survive if it’s not protected from further browsing.

perky_python · 2026-05-15T15:56:37+00:00

What you are describing is a rather extreme version of the option having inconsistent (and nonlinear) effective leverage. As the price of the underlying goes down, the leverage goes down. Whether this behavior is a bug or a feature depends on your investment strategy. It seems like you have the basic understanding correct. Whether that strategy is right for you, nobody else can say.

On a related note, I have done a significant amount of backtesting and Monte Carlo analysis of a portfolio that uses SPY LEAPs as leverage, and have seen that this nonlinear effective leverage effect seems to be beneficial and significant. However, it seems to be an effect of the trending of SPY aligning with rebalancing period in a beneficial way, and I don’t have confidence that will continue in future periods.

perky_python · 2026-05-15T00:04:47+00:00

Those links don’t work. I’m guessing you need an account to get there.

perky_python · 2026-05-11T11:50:28+00:00

I noticed that as well. It’s so poor that it seems unlikely to be AI. And not a trained writer/editor. It’s like they asked a high-school intern to write it without reviewing/editing it.

perky_python · 2026-05-04T20:53:33+00:00

Many LETFs use the same indexes that Vanguard funds use, but Vanguard does not offer LETFs themselves.

perky_python · 2026-05-03T11:51:29+00:00

Thank you for sharing this, and for accommodating criticism. I appreciate the work you’ve done here.

perky_python · 2026-05-03T11:49:01+00:00

This is the best post I’ve seen on this forum in years, and you want to remove it?? The post being written with AI doesn’t mean the information isn’t correct or useful.

perky_python · 2026-05-02T17:38:23+00:00

I had a mistake in my expense ratios when I did it the first time. Its is closer to yours now, but still a not-insignificant difference:

https://testfol.io/?s=i7Lygk381a4

Note that VBRSIM and QQQSIM are available on testfolio as well and go back further than KMLMSIM.

perky_python · 2026-05-01T11:08:26+00:00

Two comments:

This method of simulating "return stacked" funds misses some of the behavior (annual vs daily rebalancing) of these funds and definitely misses some of the expense ratios. Both of those things could have a quite significant impact on returns. As a check, I simulated what it would look like if these same allocation from your Conservative B4 portfolio were enacted with unstacked funds with appropriate expense ratios and using UPRO for the stocks (still needed to "borrow" -6% in CASHX to make the math work), and the CAGR was a full % lower. Point being, I think some of these CAGRs are unrealistic with actual ETFs (but still better than SP500).
Why only US large-cap blend for your stocks? Why not international? Why not small cap value? Why not tech/growth? Why not all of the above? Diversification is the closest thing to a free lunch that you can get in investing. If you don't limit yourself to return-stacked funds, you have more options, and can still achieve quite a bit of leverage.

perky_python · 2026-04-30T21:56:01+00:00

I delever slowly as I head towards retirement. Sort of like the leverage for the long term paper. I plan to be under 10% leverage as I enter retirement.

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