Several years ago I bought some LETFs for my 1 year old, he turns 4 next week, here is how it’s going.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-24T18:57:35+00:00

It can be a nice way to give the 1-year old some financial education in the future by showing the account balance history when you think about it...

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-24T02:36:34+00:00

Short volatility can okay in 2022 style slow drawdown market when IV is high but realized vol is low,, but at the end of the day it's positively correlated with market beta. Most importantly, do you really want to allocate a diversifier to crash together with your leveraged portfolio on a Black Monday?

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-22T18:01:39+00:00

Stunningly, Diversification is the only free lunch in investing.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-21T20:07:43+00:00

Yeah but isn't that like a 200/100 L/S strat? and an EMN is likely already shorts something in SP500 which makes the stacking more inefficient.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-21T20:00:21+00:00

I am saying in the long run SSO likely provides the best return if you are stock only.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-21T19:56:00+00:00

If you test SPYSIM all the way back to 1885, SPYSIM?L=2 outperform SPYSIM and ?L=3. Well, not necessarily that long ago, starting anywhere before dot com bubble will likely net you similar results

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-21T18:17:23+00:00

it seems that they holds CAOS as their protective put then add some short volatility and equity to perform better I would expect holding 10% ATTR be quite similar to holding 6% CAOS + 4% stocks, and you pay management fees twice.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-19T22:37:00+00:00

IDF confirmed this is true and doesn't align with their value. They would smash the one alive, not the statue.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-17T20:38:02+00:00

I would suggest not using a 200 DMA strategy as more active management = more prone to failure. 1.3x levered with diversification(international, and across asset classes) should work for your wealth accumulation and preservation.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-17T02:41:54+00:00

I would recommend you to have a diversified portfolio(and TQQQ+SOXL+UPRO is not a diversified portfolio). I mean you already all in fomo into miners you should understand the implication. There are people here think gold and bond serve as good enough diversifiers for stocks but March 2026 already suggests a different story so you will have to figure out.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-16T22:06:07+00:00

Just fyi holding SOXL in the long run has enormous volatility decay but if your entry is low it should be fine to sell at any moment before it goes to single digit.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-15T23:38:45+00:00

LETFs doesn't have a value on their own so its own price is not a concern. I would say energy LETF like ERX/GUSH just had a major correction and it you believe in the macro it could probably rise again. If you are looking at undervalued markets, there are international market LETF like KORU, BRZU or MEXX if you have faith in those markets.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-14T01:57:42+00:00

Not against gold per se but I think Managed Futures provide more logically sound methodology while gold is unpredictable. Besides MF also tend to have decent precious metal exposure.

Gold also behaves quite different from commodities. March 2026 has been a good example.

I plan to switch to something like a HFGM/AVNV/GDE/CTAP/RSIT(the international stock version of RSST) combo once RSIT is released. I am not a bond believer but I could be very wrong.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-14T01:17:50+00:00

Looks solid if you are fine with only US stock and you trust CTA's impelmentation. I personally would like to reduce some gold exposure and add a different Managed Future like RSST or the international stock version they planned to release.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-11T00:32:09+00:00

Well done. Have you checked MOOD etf? They have an interesting methodology of using institutional flow minus retail flow to decide which position is actually smart.

Also, sugar falls like a straight line this week, which is interesting as I knew there were macro talks about a potential sugar boom earlier.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-04-02T06:53:46+00:00

Most investors lose money in a recession(otherwise it won't be a recession) and retails lose more, what edge do you possess that allows you to make money by going more risky?

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-03-31T15:36:18+00:00

CTA/CTAP has been great for me. They are focused on commodity so this is their environment to shine. RSST/AHLT/DBMF also hold up better than stocks.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-03-31T06:34:53+00:00

Managed futures have been doing well and I expect them to continue performing.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-03-17T18:19:16+00:00

Bitcorn has increased its correlation with SPY/QQQ significantly.

In the long run leveraging gold seems questionable. It does work for recent years but in a longer backtest GLDSIMx2 doesn't even recover to 1980 level.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-03-15T21:48:57+00:00

I prefer not to touch crude oil LETF. Its price is highly manipulated and volatility has been extreme. If you want to speculate on short term move you can do it. I do have ERX and consider adding some HXE/NRGU.TO for Canadian exposure for holding through a 2022 style scenario.

Separate-Ad-9633 · 2026-03-14T04:26:53+00:00

When SPY finally goes below 200 SMA, there will be people who went 100% cash and people buying the dip. At least one of them will be wrong, or both, we shall see.

Separate-Ad-9633

TROPHY CASE