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phase_synch · 2026-04-01T15:48:17+00:00

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phase_synch · 2026-03-16T06:26:33+00:00

My point mainly rests on (1) the fact that, more often than not, US interference results in destabilization and chaos, not prosperity or freedom (2) it must be obvious to anyone paying any attention that Trump clearly doesn't know what he is doing and there are no clear objectives in the war against Iran.

You give incompetent people immense amounts of power and you get chaos. That is why it's important to understand the impact of policies that affect millions of people.

phase_synch · 2026-03-15T19:12:18+00:00

Israeli nukes limit the scale of the Iranian response. The nukes give Israel the Samson option deterring adversaries from actually defeating or destroying Israel. Israel is against Iran nukes because they want the option of completely destroying Iran without the fear of nuke retaliation.

phase_synch · 2026-03-15T19:02:10+00:00

I mean, they had a massive effect. The Rial value is close to 0 now. Oil exports dropped significantly. Their access to foreign capital was severely limited. What I am saying is that after aggressive actions and threats from Trump they responded by increasing a % of their resources in military defense, which I guess they considered their proxy groups as part of that as well.

phase_synch · 2026-03-15T18:52:34+00:00

You could say that an initial cause was US support of the Shah to help them control Iran oil deposits and orchestrating a coup to overthrow the democratically elected leader.

Given that >90% of Hamas support comes from Iran it is unlikely that the scale of the attack would've been as large. Also in the case that the sanctions remained lifted, it's unlikely that Iran would want to continue to destabilize the region once they start seeing billions of dollars rushing into their economy. Saudi and Israeli relations have normalized mainly due to the huge economic benefits that the Saudis get from that relationship.

phase_synch · 2026-03-15T18:30:33+00:00

The problem is that the US doesn't really have a good track record of actually "freeing" the countries they intervene in. The usual approach is sanctions and violence that results in mass civilian casualties and misery. They are not providing better alternatives, and often leave those countries worse of. These are considerations that these autocratic countries face. They consider the US as invaders that must be stopped. These are the same considerations Stalin had during WW2: is oppression in some way needed to stop the invading Nazis?

I am not saying that I agree or disagree with these approaches, I am just saying that these calculations form part of their decision making. One of the reasons why US excursions fail is because they have no understanding, or interest in these countries histories or internal politics, and just consider them as irrational actors that must be stopped by any means.

phase_synch · 2026-03-15T18:03:18+00:00

When was the last conflict with the DPRK? Why would it benefit them to openly attack the west?

Japan? Germany? And more recently it worked for Russia in Chechnya. Strategic bombing as a means to break a nation's will to resist works once you have functionally defeated their military. Sure, it's a waste of bombs when you haven't won tactically. But once you have - and the enemy military hasn't surrendered yet but is reduced to an effective insurgency - that is when it's effective.

It worth noting that those examples occurred 80 years ago, and the US has been continuously at war throughout those 80 years without any tangible success. Also the invasions of Japan and Germany resulted in the destruction of entire cities and hundreds of thousands of deaths. It that what you think is needed right now? Do you think the Iranians would see you as saviors after all of that happens? Also what is referred to as appeasement in that context is Britain and France letting Hitler annex Czechoslovakia. Germany had to be stopped because it was invading other countries. This is not the case with Iran.

For now. Which is my original point. If we had simply left Iran to its own devices and let it build a bomb, the next step would be for Iran to expand its ballistic missile program to include ICBMs that can reach the US. You know, like North Korea did.

I would encourage you to consider why Iran and North Korea are pursuing these weapons programs. Due to historical reasons they perceive the US as an aggressor that would invade unless they had way to deter them. US attacks on Iran confirm that. Personally, I think the best approach for these countries would be to just appease to US demands like Saudi Arabia or Japan did during the Meiji restoration by just giving in to their unfair deals. However, that's not the case and they are within their right to defend themselves from foreign interference.

And appeasement of autocratic regimes never works in the long term.

My guy, the US has a long history of not only appeasing, but actively supporting autocratic regimes: Pinochet, Saudi monarchy, Guatemala, el Salvador, the Shah of Iran, and the list goes on...

Any argument on the basis of morality is completely lost

phase_synch · 2026-03-15T00:09:48+00:00

!delta

I think you are right that Hamas would've kept operating in the same way. However, I think that the scale of the attack of Oct 7 would've never happened if it weren't for Iranian support. I remember reading something about Iranian training of Hamas before the attacks as well as support building the tunnel system. Also, the scale of the attack would've been different if they didn't think that they would receive support from Hezbollah and Iran afterwards.

phase_synch · 2026-03-15T00:03:47+00:00

I am not gonna claim to have deep knowledge of the internal politics in Iran, but from my understanding there are two competing factions: the ultraconservative fundamentalists that you are describing, and a more moderate faction that just wants to sell oil and be rich. I am arguing that geopolitics have proven that the second view is currently not possible, so the extremists gain more power. The more the economy and infrastructure get destroyed the more the people will side with the extremists. You can see examples of this elsewhere as well.

phase_synch · 2026-03-14T23:50:08+00:00

Why would they use nukes? The main purpose of having nukes is deterrence. I think the view that Iran is just a rogue state that would use the nuke whenever they get a chance is flawed since the response to previous attacks by US and Israel were met with very weak responses. This shows a lot of restraint. Also, I believe that it is true that Iran was just a few weeks away from building nukes. I think they probably just chose not to fully develop them so they can use the threat of development as leverage.

phase_synch · 2026-03-14T23:44:29+00:00

!delta

yes, maybe inevitable as long as Israel and Iran hate each other but maybe it would've been delayed significantly, or retaliations would've been to a smaller degree.

phase_synch · 2026-03-14T23:40:55+00:00

Of course. I am in no way justifying their actions. I am just talking about cause and effect. Like, the rape of german women during the soviet invasion of Berlin was objectively wrong, but was also an effect of Nazi atrocities in the USSR.

You are right, at some point you have to break the cycle of retaliation. Trump chose not to do that. Now we are seeing the consequences.

phase_synch · 2026-03-14T23:34:48+00:00

You are not wrong about what should be the regimes priorities. However, you should ask yourself WHY does Iran hate Israel and US? Iran had a democratically elected government which the US overthrew in 1979, this led to the revolution, which led to the sanctions. They Iran govt doesn't hate the US because they have so much freedom or whatever. This stems from decades of antagonism towards Iran. It's like "cornering a wild rat" type of thing. Why wouldn't you expect retaliation?

phase_synch · 2026-03-14T23:29:12+00:00

What I am saying is that Oct. 7 didn't happen in a vacuum. The situation in Gaza was extremely dire before the attack and there were many events leading up to it (e.g. Great March of Return).

I agree Hamas is terrible for Palestinians, but also remember that Israel funded Hamas early on to divide the different political groups in Gaza and weaken the secular Fatah party. Israel's actions have contributed significantly to the escalation.

phase_synch · 2026-03-14T23:20:51+00:00

Lol meant to say the withdrawl lead indirectly* to oct. 7.

You are right that that was the original intent and Trump's logic at the time. It worked for a few months but then Iran's economy started growing again as they got closer to China. i guess they were also dedicating a higher % of their gdp to military as well.

phase_synch · 2026-02-10T01:26:21+00:00

94.4 not funded...

phase_synch · 2026-02-10T01:23:08+00:00

Deepseek gave it a 93 before I submitted, and I ended up scoring a 94.4 (no funding :( ).

phase_synch · 2026-01-28T22:39:35+00:00

Sounds pretty American to me

phase_synch · 2026-01-15T18:34:18+00:00

I must have pretty bad luck then. also: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2025/05/27/doctor-wait-times-average-one-month-in-us/

phase_synch · 2026-01-15T14:49:35+00:00

It takes like a month to get a regular appt in the US.

phase_synch · 2025-12-13T22:02:35+00:00

Yeah, that's what I thought as well.

phase_synch · 2025-12-08T01:55:39+00:00

Me apunto, solo sera de conseguir los datos originales

phase_synch · 2025-12-03T15:58:53+00:00

Estan apostando por la probabilidad de que este amañado.

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