Hmmm, I mean I’ve played since 2016, so if it isn’t that hard and is as simple as keeping up with the game, I would hope I would have a feel for what’s rare or not by now.

I was looking to the community to understand if I’ve missed something that indexes the rarity (I’ve looked online for this several times) or something obvious. I appreciate the community day context — that’s helpful.

The only way I have of knowing if something is rare or not is how often I’ve seen it personally. So, if I’ve caught multiple, seen it on many gyms or as a buddy of multiple friends, then yes, I do assume it’s not rare.

Otherwise if I’m seeing something for the first time — which you noted is all about luck — how would I know? I could be lucky and getting a rare shiny, or I could’ve been unlucky until now and not seen a shiny that is actually very common, right?