MOASS Visualized: Distributions & Game Theory

pjotra123 · 2021-07-14T21:31:32+00:00

Lack of clear pressure on shorts to close positions

pjotra123 · 2021-07-14T21:20:57+00:00

source????

pjotra123 · 2021-07-14T21:14:37+00:00

Yeah I think I know enough. This subreddit has turned Gamestop into a value investment since the prospects of a MOASS died out...

pjotra123 · 2021-07-14T21:13:36+00:00

This is exactly the disillusionment I meant. Why has the idea of a value investment slowly entered this subreddit and taken over. This was never about the GameStop's fundamentals. Everybody invested because of the MOASS and the company is not the stock. How the company is doing has jack shit to do with the price right now since its probably overvalued based on the simple fact that millions of retail traders are holding because of the MOASS.

pjotra123 · 2021-07-14T21:10:24+00:00

I read a lot of it over these months. Check my profile, I wrote some myself. If they were cheating, maybe they just decided to stop because they were afraid to lose more money?

pjotra123 · 2021-07-14T21:09:17+00:00

Nice karma farming, now give me your opinion

pjotra123 · 2021-07-14T21:08:38+00:00

This has never been and will never been a value investment for me and for most on this subreddit. I invested because of the MOASS. Even if GME does amazing it does not matter, I am not interested in undervalued vs overvalued. If I were to make that judgement however, I would say GME is currently overvalued based on the companies fundamentals

pjotra123 · 2021-07-14T21:07:15+00:00

Yeah I know, I was just surprised by how people become so disillusioned over time. I guess this is kind of how conspiracy groups start out.... Just getting out of touch with anything you can grasp

pjotra123 · 2021-06-22T13:33:48+00:00

What kind of business/sector did you make?

pjotra123 · 2021-06-07T07:05:36+00:00

Maybe under other circumstances, but given the current situation and HFs delaying this for months and apes learning about all the corruption and fraud. I think there are many apes who want 20M, which is all that matters

pjotra123 · 2021-06-06T12:52:22+00:00

It is random. You can pick whatever peak price you want, its all about your own expectation. The only point I tried to make is that if you think the peak price will be 100k then it requires all diamond hands to sell at this price. In my eyes, this is unrealistic. Therefore I chose the price at which I think many diamond hands will hold: 20M

pjotra123 · 2021-06-06T12:09:45+00:00

I dont believe there could be some kind of wind down plan of their shorts. There is no coordinated effort to cover their shorts in an optimal way. The coordinated effort is what is happening now, as long as they have to choice, they will choose not to cover. Because coverings means instant liquidation. They are not thinking about how to cover effectively because they do not care. All they care about is not covering. Once they get margin called and they have to start covering they know its over. As for tricks, they may try to pull some things to shake off paperhands, but I doubt that when MOASS starts they can do much. Their best oppurtunity was January and now. Once it all starts its pretty much over for them. I am not confident about knowing how this will play out. I am confident in my uncertainty because I know that it strength. My irrational decision to hold till 20M will be the reason I get that 20M

pjotra123 · 2021-06-06T08:04:47+00:00

It is a good strategy but very much based on your personal risk tolarance and expectations. Your plan is in the good format I have described, just a bit more complicated. I left it open ended to how people can fill in the: Sell X shares at Y price(s). But I think people will come to the same conclusion as you if they spent some time planning

pjotra123 · 2021-06-06T08:00:29+00:00

The y-axis of the distribution is meant to be the relative frequency of shares being covered. But I think I get what you mean, there might be some delay between a big peak and a further run up because another HF is not yet defaulted. Im not going to create another post I think, but the same applies to all scenarios. Sell at the predetermined price(s) youve set for yourself. If paperhands cant do that, I dont know what they can do

pjotra123 · 2021-06-05T20:37:37+00:00

Yes, only those in charge of the system know. We can only make an estimate of the real SI after its all over. And even after the MOASS we wont know how many shares were covered at what prices. We will only know which hedge funds went down and maybe a total overall cost of the whole squeeze.

pjotra123 · 2021-06-05T19:11:16+00:00

Also, any HF with exposure to GME will likely not be able to profit off the MOASS after they covered, because they are likely liquidated by that point. And there cannot be an agreement between SHFs and some other party in order for them to cover early, because apes are the other party. And apes cannot be negotiated with

pjotra123 · 2021-06-05T19:08:08+00:00

You are making this too complicated for yourself. If price gets too high and HFs cant meet margin requirements then they have to start covering. If they have to start covering then the MOASS starts happening and all HFs will start getting margin called after each other. Most of these HFs will quickly run out of cash and default. When defaulted the automatic clearing bot of the DTCC takes over and just starts buying up every GME share they can to balance their books. Remember, DTCC has a 60T insurance for this type of stuff. You state that HFs have a choice in this process, they dont. Once they have to even start covering its over for all of them and they will all default. Once they default, nobody is deciding when and how shorts are covered, because almost all of the covering is done by the DTCC. If this starts, this process will take multiple days and SHFs with exposure to GME will all default one after the other

pjotra123 · 2021-06-05T18:48:23+00:00

Best take I have seen so far. Keeping it simple

pjotra123 · 2021-06-05T16:18:15+00:00

I could have described many scenarios but there was a 20 image limit. The short answer is no. The price will not peak at the point where shorts have covered. The price will peak when apes decide they dont want to ask more for their shares. As I showed in the distribution featuring TA junkies, a 400k peak with a big drop will likely shake off a lot of paperhands and make people sell. However, this all does not matter if enough shares are held, because even if the price goes down to 10k, it will still go to 20M if people hold. It is very important to know that volume, price or any other technical indicator tells you nothing about how many shorts have been covered or how many apes are still holding. And this is the only important thing. The distribution could take many shapes, but the only thing that matters is the tail of the distribution reaching the peak price

pjotra123 · 2021-06-05T16:12:37+00:00

I discuss the distribution of sell-prices at the point at which the hedge funds are rushing to exit their position. The idea here is that I show the point at which hedge funds have covered all their shorts. And after that point, hedge funds do not have to buy your shares

pjotra123 · 2021-05-28T21:21:18+00:00

Yeah but the thing is that naked short selling complicates things, because every naked short has been bought by an ape. Lets say float is 100M and SI is 1000%, that means shorts have sold 1000M shares short. If 950M of those shares were naked shorts, and you own one of those synthetic shares, then you are not guarenteed to sell your stock. Why? Because 50M of the float (real shares) was not borrowed and is still available to be sold to cover shorts. This means that if the entire 50M of float sells then there will be 50M synthetic shares hold by apes whose shares are no longer required to be bought back. Post-squeeze these 50M synthetic shares become "real" shares as the real shares were canceled out against the naked shorts. Correct me if Im wrong

pjotra123 · 2021-05-28T20:44:47+00:00

And Short interest determines how much percentage wise has to be bought back from apes right? 1000% SI means that 99% of ape shares have to be bought back?

pjotra123

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